One swallow doesn’t make a summer: reply to Kataria

In this paper we reply to Mitesh Kataria’s comment, which criticized the simulations of Maniadis, Tufano, and List (2014, Am. Econ. Rev.104(1), 277-290). We view these simulations as a means to illustrating the fact that we economists are unaware of the value of key variables that determine the credibility of our own empirical findings. Such variables include priors (i.e., the pre-study probability that a tested phenomenon is true) and the statistical power of the empirical design. Economists should not hesitate to use Bayesian tools and meta-analysis in order to quantify what we know about these variables

Preventing postsurgical venous thromboembolism: pharmacological approaches

The use of antithrombotic drugs for the prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients undergoing surgery is presently based on solid principles and high-level scientific evidence. This article reviews current strategies of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. The level of VTE risk following surgery depends on a variety of factors that the surgeon should take into account, including the type of surgery and the presence of additional risk factors, such as elderly age and cancer. In patients undergoing minor general surgery, early mobilization is sufficient as prophylaxis, whereas in those undergoing major general surgery, thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH), low-dose unfractionated heparin, or the pentasaccharide fondaparinux is recommended. Patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery have a particularly high risk of VTE, and routine thromboprophylaxis with LMWH, fondaparinux, or a vitamin K antagonist (international normalized ratio target: 2.0 to 3.0) is the standard of care in this group of patients. Recently, two new oral anticoagulants, rivaroxaban (a factor Xa inhibitor) and dabigatran etexilate (a direct thrombin inhibitor) have been licensed to be used for thromboprophylaxis after orthopedic surgery in Europe. Mechanical methods of thromboprophylaxis (compression stockings, intermittent pneumatic compression, vena cava filters), not discussed in detail in this review, should always be considered in patients at high thrombotic risk, in association with the pharmacolocical strategies, or in cases of contraindications to antocoagulants, as in patients or procedures at high risk of bleeding

Patente in der europäischen Finanzindustrie: terra incognita?

Die unklare Formulierung des Artikels 52 des Europäischen Patentübereinkommens hat zu einer Unsicherheit bezüglich der Patentierbarkeit von Erfindungen mit finanzwirtschaftlichem Hintergrund am Europäischen Patentamt (EPA) geführt. Der vorliegende Artikel gibt einen Überblick über die geltende Rechtslage in Europa und stellt sie den relevanten Regelungen in den USA gegenüber. In einer empirischen Erhebung werden 1761 Patentanmeldungen am EPA identifiziert, denen eine Erfindung mit finanzwirtschaftlichem Hintergrund zu Grunde liegt. Die Analyse dieser Patente zeigt, dass nur lediglich circa 20 Prozent aller bisher abgeschlossenen Anmeldeverfahren zu einer Patentgewährung geführt haben. Verglichen mit einer durchschnittlichen langfristigen Gewährungsrate von rund 68 Prozent scheint das EPA restriktiv bei der Gewährung von "Finanzpatenten" zu sein. Dieses Ergebnis ist für die Bemühungen um einen neuen regulativen Rahmen zur Vermeidung zukünftiger Finanzmarktkrisen relevant. Eine umfassende Patentierung könnte einer schnellen Verbreitung von aus regulatorischen Gründen gewünschten Methoden im Wege stehen.The imprecise wording of article 52 of the European Patent Convention lead to uncertainty with regard to the patentability of inventions related to financial methods and processes at the European Patent Office (EPO). This article summarizes the relevant legislation in Europe and contrasts it with the legislation in the US. In the empirical part of the paper, 1,761 EPO patent applications based on inventions related to financial methods and processes are identified. The analysis of those patent applications demonstrates that only 20 Prozent of the completed application procedures led to a final patent grant. Compared to an overall grant rate of about 68 Prozent at the EPO this finding highlights that the EPO pursues a restrictive approach towards the award of "financial patents". This finding bears relevance for the future design of a regulatory framework for the financial industry: Widespread patenting could hinder fast diffusion of financial innovation and hamper regulators' efforts to implement them

Speed and Agility Prediction Models in High School Football Players

Background: Optimal relationships between speed, agility, power and body mass are essential in American football. An increase in body mass, theoretically, reduces acceleration (Newton’s 2nd Law). However, an increase in lean body mass may enhance overall force or power generating potential and momentum of an athlete. Body mass, height, and vertical jump height are routinely measured, easily obtainable, and may be used as predictors of speed and agility. Purpose: To determine associations between height, vertical jump height, and body mass to speed and agility in high school football players. Methods: Data were collected on 1261 male football players (16.4±0.9yrs, 179.7±6.9cm, 87.5±18.4kg) at a regional football combine. In successive order, each athlete completed the following tests: height (HT; cm), body mass (BM; kg), 40-yard sprint (SP; s), pro-agility (AG; s), and vertical jump (VJ; cm). The data were collected after a self selected warm-up and athletes were provided three trials on performance drills. HT was measured using a standard stadiometer and BM using a calibrated scale. SP and AG times were measured with hand held stop watches. Finally, a contact mat was used to measure flight time during a countermovement VJ; subsequently VJ height was calculated from flight time using freely falling body equations. Model prediction equations for SP and AG were generated using SigmaStat statistical software package. For each equation, HT, BM, and VJ were set as predictor variables. Non-significant variables were eliminated from the model with an alpha level of p \u3c 0.05. Results: VJ (R=-0.73), BM (R= 0.67), and HT (R = 0.17), were all significant predictors of SP. The combined regression model SP(s) = 6.60561–0.0217VJ+0.00753BM– 0.00438HT explains 73% of the variance in forty yard sprint time (R=0.086; SEE =0.20). HT (R=0.08), BM (R=0.44), and VJ (-0.62) were significantly correlated with AG and were included in the combined regression model: AG(s) = 6.479-0.00437HT+0.00394BM-0.0180VJ (R=0.40; SEE=0.304). Conclusions: HT, VJ, and BM are strong predictors of linear speed. American football players may be able to increase speed by engaging in exercise programs that reduce body mass and improve vertical ground reaction force production. However, these data suggest that HT, BM, and VJ are not as strong of predictors of agility. Future research should address associations between other potential testing constructs and agility in American football players

Personal Care Savings Bonds: A New Way of Saving Towards Social Care in Later Life

An ageing population ushers in a completely new era requiring society to find new solutions to funding social care and looking after older people. This is not a temporary issue that will go away and there are no quick economic fixes. In the U.K. it is estimated that the population aged 75+ will double from 5 million to 10 million by 2040. Financial building blocks are needed to pay for social care that will be sustained for decades and provide extra security for the individual. This paper proposes a new savings product called Personal Care Savings Bonds (PCSBs), which are designed to encourage saving for social care by providing extra money at the time of greatest financial need. PCSBs are likely to be attractive to older people who have only a basic pension and modest savings, but also to other age groups, as they not only attract interest but also pay prizes. Based on reasonable assumptions, the paper shows how the fund could build into a substantial investment worth £70 billion with regular monthly prize pay-outs. In concept they are somewhat similar to Premium Bonds, another U.K. personal savings product that has been successfully operating since 1956

A machine learning approach for predictive warehouse design

Warehouse management systems (WMS) track warehousing and picking operations, generating a huge volumes of data quantified in millions to billions of records. Logistic operators incur significant costs to maintain these IT systems, without actively mining the collected data to monitor their business processes, smooth the warehousing flows, and support the strategic decisions. This study explores the impact of tracing data beyond the simple traceability purpose. We aim at supporting the strategic design of a warehousing system by training classifiers that can predict the storage technology (ST), the material handling system (MHS), the storage allocation strategy (SAS), and the picking policy (PP) of a storage system. We introduce the definition of a learning table, whose attributes are benchmarking metrics applicable to any storage system. Then, we investigate how the availability of data in the warehouse management system (i.e. varying the number of attributes of the learning table) affects the accuracy of the predictions. To validate the approach, we illustrate a generalisable case study which collects data from sixteen different real companies belonging to different industrial sectors (automotive, manufacturing, food and beverage, cosmetics and publishing) and different players (distribution centres and third-party logistic providers). The benchmarking metrics are applied and used to generate learning tables with varying number of attributes. A bunch of classifiers is used to identify the crucial input data attributes in the prediction of ST, MHS, SAS, and PP. The managerial relevance of the data-driven methodology for warehouse design is showcased for 3PL providers experiencing a fast rotation of the SKUs stored in their storage systems

Can Gambling Increase Savings? Empirical Evidence on Prize-Linked Savings Accounts

This paper studies the adoption and impact of prize-linked savings (PLS) accounts, which offer random, lottery-like payouts to individual account holders in lieu of interest. Using micro-level data from a bank offering these products in South Africa, we show that a PLS product was attractive to a broad group of individuals, across all age, race, and income levels. Financially-constrained individuals and those with no other deposit accounts were particularly likely to open a PLS account. Participants in the PLS program increased their total savings on average by 1% of annual income, a 38% increase from the mean level of savings. Deposits in PLS did not appear to cannibalize same-bank savings in standard savings products. Instead, PLS appears to serve as a substitute for lottery gambling. Exploiting the random assignment of prizes, we also present evidence that prize winners increase their investment in PLS, sometimes by more than the amount of the prize won, and that large prizes generate a local “buzz” which lead to an 11.6% increase in demand for PLS at a winning branch

Effects of dopamine infusion on forearm blood flow in critical patients.

Piazza O, Zito G, Valente A, Tufano R. Effects of dopamine infusion on forearm blood flow in critical patients. Med Sci Monit. 2006 Feb;12(2):CR90-3. Epub 2006 Jan 26

Measuring the closeness of relationships: a comprehensive evaluation of the 'Inclusion of the Other in the Self' scale

Understanding the nature and influence of social relationships is of increasing interest to behavioral economists, and behavioral scientists more generally. In turn, this creates a need for tractable, and reliable, tools for measuring fundamental aspects of social relationships. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of the 'Inclusion of the Other in the Self' (IOS) Scale, a handy pictorial tool for measuring the subjectively perceived closeness of a relationship. The tool is highly portable, very easy for subjects to understand and takes less than 1 minute to administer. Across our three online studies with a diverse adult population (n=772) we show that six different scales designed to measure relationship closeness are all highly significantly positively correlated with the IOS Scale. We then conduct a Principal Component Analysis to construct an Index of Relationship Closeness and find that it correlates very strongly (ρ=.85) with the IOS Scale. We conclude that the IOS Scale is a psychologically meaningful and highly reliable measure of the subjective closeness of relationships

What Happened to the Bondholding Class? Public Debt, Power and the Top One Per Cent

In 1887 Henry Carter Adams produced a study demonstrating that the ownership of government bonds was heavily concentrated in the hands of a ‘bondholding class’ that lent to and, in Adams's view, controlled the government like dominant shareholders control a corporation. The interests of this bondholding class clashed with the interests of the masses, whose burdensome taxes financed the interest payments on government bonds. Since the late nineteenth century there has been plenty of debate about the ownership of the public debt. But the empirical evidence offered to support the various arguments has been scant. As a result, political economists have few answers to questions first raised by Adams over century ago: how has the pattern of public debt ownership changed? Can we still speak of a powerful ‘bondholding class’? Does public debt redistribute income from taxpayers to public creditors? This article develops a new framework to address these questions. Anchored within a ‘capital as power’ approach, the research indicates a staggering pattern of concentration in the ownership of US public debt in the hands of the top one per cent of US households over the past three decades. Accordingly, the bondholding class is still alive and well in contemporary US capitalism