The statistical mechanics of a polygenic characterunder stabilizing selection, mutation and drift

By exploiting an analogy between population genetics and statistical mechanics, we study the evolution of a polygenic trait under stabilizing selection, mutation, and genetic drift. This requires us to track only four macroscopic variables, instead of the distribution of all the allele frequencies that influence the trait. These macroscopic variables are the expectations of: the trait mean and its square, the genetic variance, and of a measure of heterozygosity, and are derived from a generating function that is in turn derived by maximizing an entropy measure. These four macroscopics are enough to accurately describe the dynamics of the trait mean and of its genetic variance (and in principle of any other quantity). Unlike previous approaches that were based on an infinite series of moments or cumulants, which had to be truncated arbitrarily, our calculations provide a well-defined approximation procedure. We apply the framework to abrupt and gradual changes in the optimum, as well as to changes in the strength of stabilizing selection. Our approximations are surprisingly accurate, even for systems with as few as 5 loci. We find that when the effects of drift are included, the expected genetic variance is hardly altered by directional selection, even though it fluctuates in any particular instance. We also find hysteresis, showing that even after averaging over the microscopic variables, the macroscopic trajectories retain a memory of the underlying genetic states.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure

Asymptotic power law of moments in a random multiplicative process with weak additive noise

It is well known that a random multiplicative process with weak additive noise generates a power-law probability distribution. It has recently been recognized that this process exhibits another type of power law: the moment of the stochastic variable scales as a function of the additive noise strength. We clarify the mechanism for this power-law behavior of moments by treating a simple Langevin-type model both approximately and exactly, and argue this mechanism is universal. We also discuss the relevance of our findings to noisy on-off intermittency and to singular spatio-temporal chaos recently observed in systems of non-locally coupled elements.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

A simple mathematical model of gradual Darwinian evolution: Emergence of a Gaussian trait distribution in adaptation along a fitness gradient

We consider a simple mathematical model of gradual Darwinian evolution in continuous time and continuous trait space, due to intraspecific competition for common resource in an asexually reproducing population in constant environment, while far from evolutionary stable equilibrium. The model admits exact analytical solution. In particular, Gaussian distribution of the trait emerges from generic initial conditions.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, as accepted to J Math Biol 2013/03/1

How Gaussian competition leads to lumpy or uniform species distributions

A central model in theoretical ecology considers the competition of a range of species for a broad spectrum of resources. Recent studies have shown that essentially two different outcomes are possible. Either the species surviving competition are more or less uniformly distributed over the resource spectrum, or their distribution is 'lumped' (or 'clumped'), consisting of clusters of species with similar resource use that are separated by gaps in resource space. Which of these outcomes will occur crucially depends on the competition kernel, which reflects the shape of the resource utilization pattern of the competing species. Most models considered in the literature assume a Gaussian competition kernel. This is unfortunate, since predictions based on such a Gaussian assumption are not robust. In fact, Gaussian kernels are a border case scenario, and slight deviations from this function can lead to either uniform or lumped species distributions. Here we illustrate the non-robustness of the Gaussian assumption by simulating different implementations of the standard competition model with constant carrying capacity. In this scenario, lumped species distributions can come about by secondary ecological or evolutionary mechanisms or by details of the numerical implementation of the model. We analyze the origin of this sensitivity and discuss it in the context of recent applications of the model.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, revised versio

The genetics of mate preferences in hybrids between two young and sympatric Lake Victoria cichlid species

The genetic architecture of mate preferences is likely to affect significant evolutionary processes, including speciation and hybridization. Here, we investigate laboratory hybrids between a pair of sympatric Lake Victoria cichlid fish species that appear to have recently evolved from a hybrid population between similar predecessor species. The species demonstrate strong assortative mating in the laboratory, associated with divergent male breeding coloration (red dorsum versus blue). We show in a common garden experiment, using DNA-based paternity testing, that the strong female mate preferences among males of the two species are fully recovered in a large fraction of their F2 hybrid generation. Individual hybrid females often demonstrated consistent preferences in multiple mate choice trials (more than or equal to five) across a year or more. This result suggests that female mate preference is influenced by relatively few major genes or genomic regions. These preferences were not changed by experience of a successful spawning event with a male of the non-preferred species in a no-choice single-male trial. We found no evidence for imprinting in the F2 hybrids, although the F1 hybrid females may have been imprinted on their mothers. We discuss this nearly Mendelian inheritance of consistent innate mate preferences in the context of speciation theory

Monte carlo simulations of parapatric speciation

Parapatric speciation is studied using an individual--based model with sexual reproduction. We combine the theory of mutation accumulation for biological ageing with an environmental selection pressure that varies according to the individuals geographical positions and phenotypic traits. Fluctuations and genetic diversity of large populations are crucial ingredients to model the features of evolutionary branching and are intrinsic properties of the model. Its implementation on a spatial lattice gives interesting insights into the population dynamics of speciation on a geographical landscape and the disruptive selection that leads to the divergence of phenotypes. Our results suggest that assortative mating is not an obligatory ingredient to obtain speciation in large populations at low gene flow.Comment: submitted to Phys.Rev.

Predicting evolution and visualizing high-dimensional fitness landscapes

The tempo and mode of an adaptive process is strongly determined by the structure of the fitness landscape that underlies it. In order to be able to predict evolutionary outcomes (even on the short term), we must know more about the nature of realistic fitness landscapes than we do today. For example, in order to know whether evolution is predominantly taking paths that move upwards in fitness and along neutral ridges, or else entails a significant number of valley crossings, we need to be able to visualize these landscapes: we must determine whether there are peaks in the landscape, where these peaks are located with respect to one another, and whether evolutionary paths can connect them. This is a difficult task because genetic fitness landscapes (as opposed to those based on traits) are high-dimensional, and tools for visualizing such landscapes are lacking. In this contribution, we focus on the predictability of evolution on rugged genetic fitness landscapes, and determine that peaks in such landscapes are highly clustered: high peaks are predominantly close to other high peaks. As a consequence, the valleys separating such peaks are shallow and narrow, such that evolutionary trajectories towards the highest peak in the landscape can be achieved via a series of valley crossingsComment: 12 pages, 7 figures. To appear in "Recent Advances in the Theory and Application of Fitness Landscapes" (A. Engelbrecht and H. Richter, eds.). Springer Series in Emergence, Complexity, and Computation, 201

Haldane's rule in the 21st century

Haldane's Rule (HR), which states that 'when in the offspring of two different animal races one sex is absent, rare, or sterile, that sex is the heterozygous (heterogametic) sex', is one of the most general patterns in speciation biology. We review the literature of the past 15 years and find that among the similar to 85 new studies, many consider taxa that traditionally have not been the focus for HR investigations. The new studies increased to nine, the number of 'phylogenetically independent' groups that comply with HR. They continue to support the dominance and faster-male theories as explanations for HR, although due to increased reliance on indirect data (from, for example, differential introgression of cytoplasmic versus chromosomal loci in natural hybrid zones) unambiguous novel results are rare. We further highlight how research on organisms with sex determination systems different from those traditionally considered may lead to more insight in the underlying causes of HR. In particular, haplodiploid organisms provide opportunities for testing specific predictions of the dominance and faster X chromosome theory, and we present new data that show that the faster-male component of HR is supported in hermaphrodites, suggesting that genes involved in male function may evolve faster than those expressed in the female function. Heredity (2011) 107, 95-102; doi:10.1038/hdy.2010.170; published online 12 January 201

Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

A rare exception to Haldane's rule: are X chromosomes key to hybrid incompatibilities?

This work was funded by NERC (NE/G014906/1, NE/L011255/1, NE/I027800/1). Additional funding from the Orthopterists’ Society to PM is also gratefully acknowledged.The prevalence of Haldane’s rule suggests that sex chromosomes commonly have a key role in reproductive barriers and speciation. However, the majority of research on Haldane’s rule has been conducted in species with conventional sex determination systems (XY and ZW) and exceptions to the rule have been understudied. Here we test the role of X-linked incompatibilities in a rare exception to Haldane’s rule for female sterility in field cricket sister species (Teleogryllus oceanicus and T. commodus). Both have an XO sex determination system. Using three generations of crosses, we introgressed X chromosomes from each species onto different, mixed genomic backgrounds to test predictions about the fertility and viability of each cross type. We predicted that females with two different species X chromosomes would suffer reduced fertility and viability compared with females with two parental X chromosomes. However, we found no strong support for such X-linked incompatibilities. Our results preclude X–X incompatibilities and instead support an interchromosomal epistatic basis to hybrid female sterility. We discuss the broader implications of these findings, principally whether deviations from Haldane’s rule might be more prevalent in species without dimorphic sex chromosomes.PostprintPeer reviewe