CAN HYSTERESIS AND REAL OPTIONS EXPLAIN THE FARMLAND VALUATION PUZZLE?

This paper proposes that the common finding that land prices are systematically higher than their fundamental value as measured by the present value of future cash might be due to real options arising from uncertainty in cash flows. The paper posits a model in which the seller has a real option to postpone the sale of land. Because the value of land is measured as a present value, the buyer does not hold a similar option to postpone the purchase. It is argued that the seller's option offers a plausible explanation for the wedge between observed farmland prices and the present value model. The paper uses a Dixit and Pindyck (1996) real options framework. Using historical cash flow and land price information for Ontario, it is shown how real options can lead to a land price greater than that predicted by the present value model. The findings also suggest the existence of land price bubbles and shows how a real options framework can be used to detect bubbles.Land Economics/Use,

WEATHER DERIVATIVES AND SPECIFIC EVENT RISK

This paper investigates the relationship between weather events and agricultural risks. Specific event risks are defined by outcomes related to a specific event such as low temperature and rainfall. Using Ontario data this paper describes specific events and shows how these specific events can be insured using weather derivatives and insurance.Heat insurance, rainfall insurance, weather derivatives, weather options, crop insurance, agricultural risk, Risk and Uncertainty,

The Space Between Shared Understandings of the Teaching of Grammar in English and French to Year 7 Learners: Student Teachers Working Collaboratively

In this article, we describe a small scale research project in which an English and a French student teacher on our Postgraduate Certificate of Education course work collaboratively to develop their personal knowledge and understanding of grammar and its role in teaching both subjects to 11 year old learners in an English comprehensive school. The project begins with university-based discussions about the role of grammar in language learning as expressed in a number of government documents and professional journals and continues in school with lesson observation by students of experienced teachers and of each other. Ways in which the cross-language focus beneficially influenced their classroom practice are suggested. The article concludes with the discussion of a number of issues about planning for language development and teaching about language across the curriculum which arise from the project and makes some modest proposals for a way forward within government policy which remains separatist

Fear, Trust and Agroterrorism

This paper presents results from a consumer survey on risk perceptions about agroterrorism and the safety of the US food supply. The survey conducted in the United States during the fall of 2004, provides insights into what consumers are thinking about terrorism against the food system, their knowledge base on food safety, the vulnerabilities of the food supply chain and food categories to terrorist contamination, and their trust in government and groceries to protect the food supply.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

RANDOM WALKS AND FRACTAL STRUCTURES IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY FUTURES PRICES

This paper investigates whether the assumption of Brownian motion often used to describe commodity price movements is satisfied. Using historical data from 17 commodity futures contracts specific tests of fractional and ordinary Brownian motion are conducted. The analyses are conducted under the null hypothesis of ordinary Brownian motion against the alternative of persistent or ergodic fractional Brownian motion. Tests for fractional Brownian motion are based on a variance ratio test and compared with conventional R-S analyses. However, standard errors based on Monte Carlo simulations are quite high, meaning that the acceptance region for the null hypothesis is large. The results indicate that for the most part, the null hypothesis of ordinary Brownian motion cannot be rejected for 14 of 17 series. The three series that did not satisfy the tests were rejected because they violated the stationarity property of the random walk hypothesis.Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing,

Studies of Pedestrian Amenity.

This report, produced for the Transport and Road Research Laboratory, summarises the results of an extensive literature search in two areas of pedestrian research: (I) Estimating the Number of Pedestrian Journeys (2) Pedestrian Amenity The report identifies gaps in current knowledge from the revealed literature and makes recommendations for best practice. Research proposals are made, to help alleviate such revealed gaps, in a companion report

Needs based planning: use of information from individual assessments to develop population estimates of need and use of resources

By separating purchasing from the traditional provider role, the new community care policy has brought about a fundamental change in the planning role of health and local authorities. The policy implies changed assumptions about what constitutes need and requires an improved understanding of local needs. The policy has not only placed a duty on local authorities to assess the needs of the population in support of their Community Care Plans, but has also brought about several changes which have by their nature encouraged many local authorities to undertake a more detailed needs assessment. The PSSRU, in conjunction with Surrey Social Service Department, has been developing a needs based planning modelwhich will assist in the equitable and efficient deployment of community care resources for elderly and physically disabled people. The model is customised to reflect local priorities and assumptions. The model synthesises local client needs assessment data with national data to provide a method of predicting numbers of the population in these target groups which can then be translated into potential resource requirements. This paper provides a background to the development of the project by discussing the place of needs based planning inpopulation needs assessment and local authority strategic planning. The final section discusses the progress anddevelopment of the methodology in Surrey

The Relationship Between Pedestrian’s Assessment of Street Environments and Physical Conditions

1.1.1 Any new road, road improvement or traffic management scheme could affect pedestrian journeys in its locality or elsewhere. Some journeys may be affected directly, with severance caused where the new road or road improvement cuts across a pedestrian route, others may be affected indirectly with a new road causing changes in traffic levels elsewhere. To enable effects on pedestrians to be given proper weight when decisions are taken, techniques are required that forecast the effects of the scheme on the number and quality of pedestrian journeys. This is particularly true in urban areas, since effects on pedestrians may be one of the main benefits or disbenefits of measures to relieve urban traffic. (Continues..

Pedestrian Amenity: On Street Survey Design

Any new road, road improvement or traffic management scheme could affect pedestrian journeys in its locality or elsewhere. Some journeys may be affected directly, with severance caused where the new road or road improvement cuts across a pedestrian route, others may be affected indirectly with a new road causing changes in traffic levels elsewhere. To enable effects on pedestrians to be given proper weight when decisions are taken, techniques are required that forecast the effects of the scheme on the number and quality of pedestrian journeys. This is particularly true in urban areas, since effects on pedestrians may be one of the main benefits or disbenefits of measures to relieve urban traffic. (Continues..