Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes

Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development

Water quality and its interlinkages with the Sustainable Development Goals

Interlinkages among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) lead to important trade-offs and synergies among the goals and their underlying targets. The aim of this paper is to review the role of water quality as an agent of interlinkages among the SDGs. It was found that there are a small number of explicit interconnections, but many more inferred interlinkages between water quality and various targets. A review of case studies showed that interlinkages operate from the municipal to near global scales, that their importance is likely to increase in developing countries, and that new SDG indicators are needed to monitor them. The analysis identifies many different SDG target areas where a combined effort between the water quality community and other sectors would bring mutual benefits in achieving the water quality and other targets

Progress and challenges to the global waste management system

Rapid economic growth, urbanization and increasing population have caused (materially intensive) resource consumption to increase, and consequently the release of large amounts of waste to the environment. From a global perspective, current waste and resource management lacks a holistic approach covering the whole chain of product design, raw material extraction, production, consumption, recycling and waste management. In this article, progress and different sustainability challenges facing the global waste management system are presented and discussed. The study leads to the conclusion that the current, rather isolated efforts, in different systems for waste management, waste reduction and resource management are indeed not sufficient in a long term sustainability perspective. In the future, to manage resources and wastes sustainably, waste management requires a more systems-oriented approach that addresses the root causes for the problems. A specific issue to address is the development of improved feedback information (statistics) on how waste generation is linked to consumption

From urban meteorology, climate and environment research to integrated city services

Accelerating growth of urban populations, especially in developing countries, has become a driving force of human development. Crowded cities are centres of creativity and economic progress, but polluted air, flooding and other climate impacts, means they also face major weather, climate and environment-related challenges. Increasingly dense, complex and interdependent urban systems leave cities vulnerable: a single extreme event can lead to a widespread breakdown of a city’s infrastructure often through domino effects. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recognizes that rapid urbanization necessitates new types of services which make the best use of science and technology and considers the challenge of delivering these as one of the main priorities for the meteorological community. Such Integrated Urban Weather, Environment and Climate Services should assist cities in facing hazards such as storm surges, flooding, heat waves, and air pollution episodes, especially in changing climates. The aim is to build urban services that meet the special needs of cities through a combination of dense observation networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning systems, and climate services for reducing emissions, that will enable the building of resilient, thriving sustainable cities that promote the Sustainable Development Goals. A number of recent international studies have been initiated to explore these issues. The paper provides a brief overview of recent WMO and collaborators research programs and activities in urban hydrometeorology, climate and air pollution; describes the novel concept of urban integrated weather, climate and environment related services; and highlights research needs for their realisation

The analytical framework of water and armed conflict: a focus on the 2006 Summer War between Israel and Lebanon

This paper develops an analytical framework to investigate the relationship between water and armed conflict, and applies it to the ‘Summer War’ of 2006 between Israel and Lebanon (Hezbollah). The framework broadens and deepens existing classifications by assessing the impact of acts of war as indiscriminate or targeted, and evaluating them in terms of international norms and law, in particular International Humanitarian Law (IHL). In the case at hand, the relationship is characterised by extensive damage in Lebanon to drinking water infrastructure and resources. This is seen as a clear violation of the letter and the spirit of IHL, while the partial destruction of more than 50 public water towers compromises water rights and national development goals. The absence of pre-war environmental baselines makes it difficult to gauge the impact on water resources, suggesting a role for those with first-hand knowledge of the hostilities to develop a more effective response before, during, and after armed conflict

Innovation for green industrialisation: an empirical assessment of innovation in Ethiopia’s cement, leather and textile sectors

Ethiopia has recently committed to economic transformation and industrialisation through a low-carbon development trajectory. Existing literature highlights innovation as a critical driver of industrialisation, and the need for ‘green’ innovations to improve resource productivity and reduce pollution. However, empirical studies investigating the nexus between green innovation systems and industrialisation in developing countries are limited. Based on nine semi-structured interviews and a survey of 117 firms, this paper assesses sectoral systems of innovation in Ethiopia’s cement, leather and textile sectors, with a view to understanding their functioning toward supporting green industrialisation. Results revealed low rates of product and process innovations among firms in Ethiopia. The main inhibitors of innovation are high costs of technology, inadequate finance and limited information. Improving competitiveness is the main driver of firms’ innovation, while reducing environmental impacts and meeting environmental regulations were among the least important motivators. Moreover, interactions among firms, government and other actors encourage innovation. The study therefore suggests enhancing coordination among key actors, providing financial incentives for firms, and enforcing environmental regulations

Evaluating and expanding the European Union's protected-area network toward potential post-2020 coverage targets

The Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) strategic plan will expire in 2020, but biodiversity loss is ongoing. Scientists call for more ambitious targets in the next agreement. The nature-needs-half movement, for example, has advocated conserving half of Earth to solve the biodiversity crisis, which has been translated to protecting 50 of each ecoregion. We evaluated current protection levels of ecoregions in the territory of one of the CBD's signatories, the European Union (EU). We also explored the possible enlargement of the Natura 2000 network to implement 30 or 50 ecoregion coverage in the EU member states’ protected area (PA) network. Based on the most recent land-use data, we examined whether ecoregions have enough natural area left to reach such high coverage targets. We used a spatially explicit mixed integer programing model to estimate the least-cost expansion of the PA network based on 3 scenarios that put different emphasis on total conservation cost, ecological representation of ecosystems, or emphasize an equal share of the burden among member states. To realize 30 and 50 ecoregion coverage, the EU would need to add 6.6 and 24.2, respectively, of its terrestrial area to its PA network. For all 3 scenarios, the EU would need to designate most recommended new PAs in seminatural forests and other semi- or natural ecosystems. Because 15 ecoregions did not have enough natural area left to implement the ecoregion-coverage targets, some member states would also need to establish new PAs on productive land, allocating the largest share to arable land. Thirty percent ecoregion coverage was met by protecting remaining natural areas in all ecoregions except 3, where productive land would also need to be included. Our results support discussions of higher ecoregions protection targets for post-2020 biodiversity frameworks. © 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology

A multi-regional input-output analysis of ozone precursor emissions embodied in Spanish international trade

Higher levels of ozone in the troposphere is a severe threat to both environment and human health. Many countries are concerned about the effects that critical levels of ozone have on them. Countries pollute to satisfy their domestic and external demand (production perspective) and, at the same time, these countries also generate emissions abroad indirectly via their imports and via their domestic production (consumption perspective). Spain is one of the EU countries with the highest pollution records in the emissions of tropospheric ozone precursor gases. A multiregional input-output model (MRIO) allows us to analyze the total emissions embodied in Spanish international trade in 35 sectors within the EU area and the rest of the world. MRIO models, are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete emissions footprint estimates at the national and supranational level The results show that the most polluting sectors involved in Spanish trade are Agriculture, Basic Metals, Coke and Refined Petroleum Production. Some policy recommendations follow these results; for example, a higher number of environmental regulations focused on the Agricultural sector, such as the introduction of codes of good practices in the use of fertilizers and the promotion of cleaner production technologies might lead to less burden to the environment.Ministerio de economía y competitividad (España) ECO 2014-56399-R. Claves para Desacoplar Crecimiento y Emisiones de Co2 en EspañaCátedra de economía de la energía y del medio ambiente (Universidad de Sevilla)Fundación Roger TornéJunta de Andalucía. SEJ 13