Don't blame globalisation for the squeezing of the middle class. CEPS Policy Brief, No. 121, 2 February 2007

Globalisation is being blamed for the squeezing of the middle class and protectionism is being offered as a solution. We argue in this paper that the increase in inequality is a long-term trend resulting from a variety of factors, including the decline in manufacturing, the reduction in the progressivity of taxation and the steady increase in asset prices, and that globalisation has only had a marginal impact on it. Protectionism will not reverse any of these trends. We discuss some policy options aimed at cushioning this increase in inequality and argue that they will likely result in expanding fiscal deficits and pressure on central banks to test the limits of growth

International business cycles, financial markets and household production

This paper investigates the properties of an international real business cycle model with household production. We show that a model with disturbances to both market and household technologies reproduces the main regularities of the data and improves existing models in matching international consumption, investment and output correlations without irrealistic assumptions on the structure of international financial markets. Sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the results to alternative specifications of the stochastic processes for the disturbances and to variations of unmeasured parameters within a reasonable range.Household production, international business cycles, taste shocks, consumption correlations

La trampa estructural de Japón. Lecciones para Europa y Estados Unidos

Este artículo analiza la evolución de la economía y las políticas de las autoridades japonesas desde el estallido de la burbuja bursátil. El artículo concluye que la respuesta de las autoridades japonesas fue, en sus inicios, consistente con la ortodoxia del momento. Sin embargo, el complejo sistema de incentivos y subsidios de la sociedad japonesa impidió una respuesta eficaz, y las políticas que finalmente se implementaron fueron tardías, insuficientes y mal diseñadas. Aplicando los resultados de este análisis a la situación actual de Europa y Estados Unidos se concluye que Europa experimentara todavía un largo de periodo de estable pero lento crecimiento, mientras que Estados Unidos pasara por un periodo de crecimiento volátil que terminara, en el mejor de los casos, con alta inflación.This article analyses the evolution of the Japanese authorities'''' economy and policies as from the bursting of the stock exchange bubble. The article concludes that the Japanese authorities'''' response was, in its beginnings, consistent with the orthodoxy of the moment. However, Japanese society''''s complex incentives and subsidies system prevented an effective response, and the policies that were finally implemented were late, insufficient and wrongly designed. Applying the results of this analysis to the current situation in Europe and in the United States, the conclusion is that Europe will still experience a long period of stable but slow growth, whereas United States went through a period of volatile growth that is to end, in the best of the cases, with high inflation rates

Comovement and Macroeconomic Interdependence: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia, and Europe

This paper analyzes common economic patterns across countries and economic sectors in Latin America, East Asia and Europe for the period 1970-94. This is done by means of an error-components model that decomposes real value-added growth in each country into common international effects, sector-specific effects and country-specific effects. We find significant comovement in the European and East Asian samples. In the Latin American sample, however, we find country-specific components to be considerably more important than common patterns. These results are robust to different sub-sample time spans and different sub-sample country groups.

Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework

This paper presents a methodology for the calculation of bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees consistency at the global level. A theoretical model, which encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination, shows that the stock of net foreign assets and the evolution of sectoral prices are the fundamentals underlying the behavior of the real exchange rate. An unobserved components methodology in a cointegration framework allows us to identify a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate, and deviations from this equilibrium provide an estimate of the degree of multilateral misalignment. Finally, an algebraic transformation converts these multilateral equilibrium real rates into bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover, inter alia, that by the start of Stage III of EMU the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and even more against the pound, but overvalued relative to the yen. Regarding EMU currencies, it is shown that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.

Age of the Cretaceous alkaline magmatism in northeast Iberia: implications for the Alpine cycle in the Pyrenees

Cretaceous magmatism in northeast Iberia is related to the opening of the Bay of Biscay and counterclockwise rotation of Iberia with respect to Europe and predates the collision between Iberia and Europe that resulted in the formation of the Pyrenees. To better constrain the age of this magmatism, we have undertaken a Ar/Ar study on samples from the Pyrenees and the Catalonian Coastal Ranges. In the Basque-Cantabrian Basin and the North Pyrenean Basins, we have obtained Albian ages (ca. 102 Ma). In the northern Catalonian Coastal Ranges, we have obtained Campanian ages (ca. 79 Ma). We integrate our data with a review of previously published ages and discuss our results in terms of their geodynamic significance. The Cretaceous magmatism in the Pyrenees is Albian-Santonian (mostly occurring between 105 to 85 Ma) and was emplaced in a tectonically unclear context after the opening of the Bay of Biscay and rotation of Iberia. The magmatism in the Catalonian Coastal Ranges is well constrained to ca. 79 Ma and could mark the onset of Alpine shortening in the Pyrenean realm in northeasternmost Iberia. Finally, we describe a Late Triassic (ca. 232 Ma)-Early Jurassic (ca. 180 Ma) phase of magmatism in the Central Pyrenees, previously considered to be Cretaceous, that widens temporally and geographically the extent of the rift-related alkaline magmatism in southwestern Europe at that time. Key Points New Ar/Ar data update the age of the Cretaceous magmatism in NE Iberia Magmatism in the Pyrenees postdates the rotation of Iberia Magmatism in the Catalonian Coastal Ranges could mark the onset of Alpine shortenin

El magmatismo alcalino del Triásico Superior en el NO de la Cadena Ibérica (España)

We have carried out a complete study of the Upper-Triassic alkaline magmatism on the northwestern margin of the Iberian Chain. This magmatism is composed of mafic sills, which intrude the Keuper facies in two geographic sectors: the Cameros Massif (NW) and the Moncayo Massif (SE). In both of these sectors, the rocks are characterised by an intense alteration (spilitisation). The field relationships point to an Upper Triassic age for the studied sills, given that: 1) interactions are recognised between the magma and wet, unconsolidated host sediments, suggesting that the magma was emplaced during or shortly after the deposition of the Keuper facies; 2) in the Moncayo sector a conglomerate bed that includes igneous clasts overlaies the sills and passes upwards to the Norian-Rhaetian Imón Fm. According to the petrological and geochemical features of the sills, an internal differentiation can be recognised inwards, with the developments of three zones: chilled margins, central facies and pegmatoid facies. The rocks are porphyritic and are mainly composed of phenocrysts of pseudomorphed olivine and microcrysts of plagioclase, opaque minerals and minor clinopyroxene. Vesicles and xenoliths of the host sedimentary rocks are also recognised, especially at the chilled margins. The mineral assemblage is constant across the sills but the mineral proportions vary among the different zones. The sills are basic to intermediate rocks. They are classified as basalts to dacites with an alkaline geochemical affinity. According to the trace element contents, this magmatism is related to an enriched sub-lithospheric mantle source affected by crustal contamination. Considering the Upper Triassic magmatisms from southwestern Europe, two types can be distinguished. On the one hand, the magmatisms in the Catalonian Coastal Ranges and SE France are paleogeographically located in the inner platform and are related to deep, astenospheric mantle sources with no evidence of crustal contamination. On the other hand, the magmatisms in the NW Iberian Chain –this study-, the External Betics and the Brescian Prealps are situated in a more litoral position and are related to a shallower, lithospheric mantle with evidence of crustal contamination. These differences could be related to the thickness of the continental crust, which might be thinner in the inner areas of the platform.Se ha realizado un estudio completo del magmatismo alcalino del Triásico Superior del margen noroccidental de la Cadena Ibérica. Este magmatismo consta de sills máficos emplazados entre los materiales sedimentarios de la Facies Keuper en dos sectores: Macizo de Cameros (NO) y Macizo del Moncayo (SE). En ambos sectores, las rocas estudiadas se caracterizan por una intensa alteración (espilitización). Las relaciones de campo apuntan a una edad de los sills estudiados de Triásico Superior dado que: 1) se reconocen interacciones entre el magma y el sedimento encajante sin consolidar, que sugieren su emplazamiento coetáneo con el depósito de la facies Keuper o poco posterior y, 2) se observa, en el sector de Moncayo, un nivel conglomerático con cantos de rocas ígneas similares a las que forman los sills, depositado entre los sedimentos argilíticos que se disponen por encima de los sills y siempre, bajo la Fm. Imón de edad Noriense terminal a Retiense inferior. Las características petrológicas y geoquímicas de los sills sugieren una diferenciación hacia el interior de los mismos, reconociéndose tres zonas: borde enfriado, facies central y facies pegmatoide. Las rocas son porfídicas y tienen una asociación mineral común formada por fenocristales de olivino alterado y una mesostasia compuesta por microcristales de plagioclasa, opacos y clinopiroxeno. También se reconocen vesículas y enclaves de la roca sedimentaria encajante, especialmente en el borde enfriado. Las proporciones modales varían entre las tres facies reconocidas. Los sills están formados por rocas básicas a intermedias, clasificadas desde basaltos a dacitas, con afinidad alcalina. De acuerdo a sus contenidos en elementos traza, este magmatismo está relacionado con una fuente mantélica sublitosférica enriquecida, afectada por contaminación cortical. Considerando los magmatismos del Triásico Superior del suroeste de Europa, pueden establecerse dos tipos. Por un lado, los magmatismos aflorantes en las Cadenas Costero Catalanas y el Sur de Francia estaban paleogeográficamente situadas hacia zonas internas de la plataforma y se relacionan con un manto profundo, astenosférico, sin evidencias de contaminación cortical. Por el contrario, los magmatismos de las áreas más occidentales y septentrionales (NO de la Cadena Ibérica –este estudio-, Zonas Externas de las Béticas y Prealpes de Brescia), próximas al litoral paleogeográfico, se relacionan con un manto más superficial, litosférico y muestran evidencias de contaminación cortical. Todas estas diferencias observadas pueden relacionarse con variaciones del espesor de la corteza continental, más adelgazada hacia las zonas internas de la plataforma

Metabolic Cost of Traverses on Future Planetary Extra Vehicular Activities

La despesa energètica per metabolisme (Metabolic Rate, MR) és una magnitud fonamental en els passejos espacials. La predicció de la despesa energètica durant una travessia futura en condicions específiques de velocitat, pendent, gravetat i vestit espacial pot proporcionar informació valuosa sobre la quantitat de consumibles necessaris (principalment oxigen i aigua), la ruta més adequada per assolir els objectius de la missió, a l'igual que obtenir informació sobre la càrrega de treball, la fatiga acumulada i les possibles lesions. En aquest projecte, vaig fer una descripció general dels mètodes i models existents desenvolupats per estudiar el cost energètic per desplaçar-se a peu, així com els resultats biomèdics de les missions Apol·lo i el desenvolupament actual de vestits espacials per a futures missions. Vaig explorar la possibilitat d'utilitzar mètodes predictius basats en aprenentatge màquina per determinar MR com una forma de millorar els models actuals tant per a les activitats extravehiculars (EVA) com per als recorreguts de la Terra. També vaig fer un prototip de l'eina predictiva i la vaig provar amb dades simulades. L'eina pot integrar-se en una altra aplicació o usar-se com una API per HTTP.El gasto energético por metabolismo (Metabolic Rate, MR) es una magnitud fundamental en los paseos espaciales. La predicción del gasto energético durante una travesía futura en condiciones específicas de velocidad, pendiente, gravedad y traje espacial puede proporcionar información valiosa sobre la cantidad de consumibles necesarios (principalmente oxígeno y agua), la ruta más adecuada para lograr los objetivos de la misión, al igual que obtener información sobre la carga de trabajo, la fatiga acumulada y las posibles lesiones. En este proyecto, hice una descripción general de los métodos y modelos existentes desarrollados para estudiar el coste energético para desplazarse a pie, así como los resultados biomédicos de las misiones Apolo y el desarrollo actual de trajes espaciales para futuras misiones. Exploré la posibilidad de utilizar métodos predictivos basados en aprendizaje máquina para determinar MR como una forma de mejorar los modelos actuales tanto para las actividades extravehiculares (EVA) como para los recorridos de la Tierra. También hice un prototipo de la herramienta predictiva y la probé con datos simulados. La herramienta puede integrarse en otra aplicación o usarse como una API por HTTP.Metabolic Rate (MR) is a fundamental magnitude during surface exploration traverses. Predicting energy expenditure during an upcoming traverse under specific conditions of speed, slope, gravity and suit characteristics can provide valuable information about the supply of consumables needed (i.e. oxygen and water), the most appropriate path to accomplish the exploration objectives, as well as information about workload, fatigue, and potential injuries. In this project I did an overview of the existing methods and models developed to study metabolic rate of traverse, as well as the biomedical results of Apollo Missions and the current state of the art in the development of spacesuits. I considered the use of machine learning predicting methods to determine MR as a way of improving current models for both Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) and Earth traverses. I also made a prototype of a MR predictive tool and tested it with simulated data. The tool can be integrated into another app or used as a HTTP Application Programing Interface (API).Outgoin

Intrinsic biocontainment: Multiplex genome safeguards combine transcriptional and recombinational control of essential yeast genes

Significance The advance of biotechnology opens up greater possibilities of bioterror and bioerror. Here, we propose multiplexed safeguard switches rooted in the development of foundational genomic, regulatory, and metabolic technologies. Safeguard switches can be regulated by submicromolar small molecule(s) and combined in a modular fashion. The resulting safeguard strains show high fitness and low reversion rates. Moreover, two distinct classes of safeguard switches are orthogonal, providing a potential fail-safe mechanism. The safeguard technologies provide a practical and generic approach to containing engineered microbes within defined laboratory and/or industrial environments, and can in principle be used in the field as well.</jats:p

Primeros datos del magmatismo pérmico medio-superior del SE de la Cordillera Ibérica: caracterización y comparación con magmatismos contemporáneos del Tethys occidental

A multiple basic to intermediate sill is reported for the first time in the south-eastern Iberian Ranges. It is composed of several tabular to irregular levels intercalated within the fluvial sediments of the Alcotas Formation (Middle-Upper Permian). The sill could represent the youngest Paleozoic subvolcanic intrusion in the Iberian Ranges. The igneous rocks are classified as basaltic andesites. They show a subophitic microstructure constituted by plagioclase (An62 – An6), augite (En48Wo44Fs7 –En46Wo39Fs15), pseudomorphosed olivine, minor amounts of oxides (magnetite and ilmenite) and accessory F-apatite. According to the mineralogy and whole-rock composition, their geochemical affinity is transitional from subalkaline to alkaline. Radiometric dating of the sill is not feasible due to its significant alteration. Field criteria, however, suggest an emplacement coeval to the deposition of the Alcotas Formation (Middle-Upper Permian). This hypothesis is supported by the transitional affinity of these rocks, similar to other Middle-Upper Permian magmatisms in the western Tethys, e.g., from the Pyrenees. Taking into account their isotopic signature (εSr: -6.8 to -9.2; εNd: +1.7 to +8.3), an enriched mantle source with the involvement of a HIMU component has been identified. This interpretation is supported by the trace element contents. Some of these HIMU characteristics have been recognised in the Middle-Upper Permian magmatisms of the Central Pyrenees (Anayet Basin) and the High Atlas (Argana Basin). However, none of these source features are shared with other Middle-Upper Permian magmatisms of the western Tethys (Catalonian Coastal Ranges, Corsica-Sardinia and southern France), nor with the Lower Permian magmatism of the Iberian Ranges. These differences support the presence of a heterogeneous mantle in the western Tethys during the Permian.Se describe por primera vez en el sudeste de la Cordillera Ibérica un sill múltiple de carácter básico a intermedio. Está compuesto por varios cuerpos tabulares a irregulares intercalados entre los sedimentos de origen fluvial de la Formación Alcotas (Pérmico Medio-Superior). El sill podría representar la intrusión subvolcánica paleozoica más reciente en la Cordillera Ibérica. Estas rocas subvolcánicas se clasifican como andesitas basálticas. Muestran una textura subofítica constituida por plagioclasa (An62 – An6), augita (En48Wo44Fs7 –En46Wo39Fs15), pseudomorfos de olivino, minerales opacos (magnetita e ilmenita) y F-apatito accesorio. De acuerdo con su composición mineral y de roca total, su afinidad geoquímica es transicional entre subalcalina y alcalina. La datación radiométrica del sill no es posible debido a su elevado grado de alteración. No obstante, los criterios de campo sugieren un emplazamiento contemporáneo con el depósito de la Formación Alcotas (Pérmico Medio-Superior). Esta hipótesis está apoyada por la afinidad transicional de estas rocas, similar a otros episodios magmáticos del Pérmico Medio-Superior en el Tethys occidental, como los que afloran en los Pirineos. Teniendo en cuenta su signatura isotópica (εSr: -6.8 a -9.2; εNd: +1.7 a +8.3), se propone un origen a partir de un manto enriquecido, con la participación de un componente de tipo HIMU. Esta interpretación está apoyada por sus contenidos en elementos traza. Algunas de estas características del protolito han sido reconocidas en los magmatismos del Pérmico Medio-Superior del Pirineo (cuenca del Anayet) y del Alto Atlas (cuenca de Argana), pero no son habituales en otros magmatismos de edad Pérmico Medio-Superior del Tethys occidental (Cadenas Costero Catalanas, Córcega-Cerdeña y Sur de Francia), ni en el magmatismo Pérmico Inferior de la Cordillera Ibérica. Estas diferencias apoyan la presencia de un manto heterogéneo en el Tethys occidental durante el Pérmico