Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes

Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development

Blue harvest: inland fisheries as an ecosystem service

Global food production has increased greatly in recent years and rural livelihoods are much improved in many regions. Yet, despite this clear progress rural poverty and food insecurity remain deeply entrenched in many areas, especially in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In response the international community has renewed calls for increased commitment to meeting the needs of the world's poor. This report, commissioned as a contribution to the 10th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity taking place in Nagoya, Japan, not only underlines the value of freshwater fisheries but provides guidance on how the ecosystem approach can be applied in order to sustain future harvests.Inland fisheries, Nutrition, Food security, Sustainability, Ecosystems

Many Strong Voices: Outline for an assessment project design

This document defines, guides, and supports the development and implementation of a full assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), under the Many Strong Voices (MSV) programme. A summary of impacts of climate change on SIDS is provided along with a literature review and analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in SIDS, supplemented by consultations with SIDS partners, to indicate data availability and quality along with how to fill in data gaps. Then, an initial structure for the assessment is detailed with recommendations for implementing a SIDS assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation.Recommendations describe the need for the work, the scientific methods to adopt, the focus on case studies, and the emphasis on a problem- driven and action research approach involving local consultations.Research, policy, and practice outcomes of the assessment are also described

Modern technologies production of cheese enriched with Omega - 3 fatty acids

Thermochromic films of MgxV1-xO2 were made by reactive dc magnetron   sputtering onto heated glass. The metal-insulator transition   temperature decreased by similar to 3 K/at. %Mg, while the optical   transmittance increased concomitantly. Specifically, the transmittance   of visible light and of solar radiation was enhanced by similar to 10%   when the Mg content was similar to 7 at. %. Our results point at the   usefulness of these films for energy efficient fenestration

Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees

We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction

A GIS model-based assessment of the environmental distribution of g-hexachlorocyclohexane in European soils and waters

The MAPPE GIS based multimedia model is used to produce a quantitative description of the behaviour of γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH) in Europe, with emphasis on continental surface waters. The model is found to reasonably reproduce γ-HCH distributions and variations along the years in atmosphere and soil; for continental surface waters, concentrations were reasonably well predicted for year 1995, when lindane was still used in agriculture, while for 2005, assuming severe restrictions in use, yields to substantial underestimation. Much better results were yielded when same mode of release as in 1995 was considered, supporting the conjecture that for γ-HCH, emission data rather that model structure and parameterization can be responsible for wrong estimation of concentrations. Future research should be directed to improve the quality of emission data. Joint interpretation of monitoring and modelling results, highlights that lindane emissions in Europe, despite the marked decreasing trend, persist beyond the provisions of existing legislation. An spatially-explicit multimedia modelling strategy was applied to describe the historical distribution of γ-HCH in European soils and surface waters

Toward the next generation of air quality monitoring: Persistent organic pollutants

AbstractPersistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) are global pollutants that can migrate over long distances and bioaccumulate through food webs, posing health risks to wildlife and humans. Multilateral environmental agreements, such as the Stockholm Convention on POPs, were enacted to identify POPs and establish the conditions to control their release, production and use. A Global Monitoring Plan was initiated under the Stockholm Convention calling for POP monitoring in air as a core medium; however long temporal trends (>10 years) of atmospheric POPs are only available at a few selected sites. Spatial coverage of air monitoring for POPs has recently significantly improved with the introduction and advancement of passive air samplers. Here, we review the status of air monitoring and modeling activities and note major uncertainties in data comparability, deficiencies of air monitoring and modeling in urban and alpine areas, and lack of emission inventories for most POPs. A vision for an internationally-integrated strategic monitoring plan is proposed which could provide consistent and comparable monitoring data for POPs supported and supplemented by global and regional transport models. Key recommendations include developing expertise in all aspects of air monitoring to ensure data comparability and consistency; partnering with existing air quality and meteorological networks to leverage synergies; facilitating data sharing with international data archives; and expanding spatial coverage with passive air samplers. Enhancing research on the stability of particle-bound chemicals is needed to assess exposure and deposition in urban areas, and to elucidate long-range transport. Conducting targeted measurement campaigns in specific source areas would enhance regional models which can be extrapolated to similar regions to estimate emissions. Ultimately, reverse-modeling combined with air measurements can be used to derive “emission” as an indicator to assess environmental performance with respect to POPs on the country, region, or global level

Voluntary business engagement in climate change: A study of the ClimateWise Principles

There is an expectation that the insurance sector should be leading business efforts in responding to climate change due to their inherent exposure to increasing risks. However, insurance companies normally operate on a one year time horizon - underwriting risks through policies which change each year to reflect new knowledge of these risks. The ClimateWise principles is a voluntary initiative of the insurance sector that was launched in 2007 to provide a basis for insurance companies to engage with climate change risks. This paper introduces the ClimateWise initiative and explores progress made since its launch. The paper presents new knowledge on whether this voluntary initiative provides a useful structure for the insurance sector in responding to the challenge of climate change. It finds that while the insurance sector has engaged with climate change, there is much more to do and we welcome the recent changes to ClimateWise that more accurately reflect this. The paper concludes that ClimateWise has been a useful initiative for the insurance companies and as a potential benchmark for the sector it offers some value. However, ClimateWise has not provided a strong enough engagement across the sector to embed climate action into business decisions