Dynamic model development of enteric methane emission from goats based on energy balance measured in indirect open circuit respiration calorimeter

[EN] A dynamic model of methane (CH4) emission in goats was proposed and parameterized from energy balance experimental data. The model focused on dry matter intake and fat content of the diet as explanatory variables for CH4 emission. Experimental and literature data were used to develop the model. Then, data (n = 123) from five energy balance experiments were used to evaluate the model. The model was adequate to represent energy in milk, heat production and CH4 emissions. Residual analysis showed that most of the prediction errors were due to unexplained variations with small mean and slope bias (around zero with exception of CH4; <6%). The model tends to over-predict energy in CH4 at higher energy intake and, energy in milk and heat production at lower energy intake. Random bias was greater than 90%, signifying than more than 90% of the error was non-systematic indicating the mechanism in the model are properly represented. The model is a first step towards a mechanistic description of nutrient use by goats and, useful as a research tool for investigating energy partition in dairy goat systems. The model described in this study should be considered for preparation of enteric CH4 emissions inventories for goats. (c) 2018 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V.This study was supported by LOW CARBON FEED Project reference LIFE2016/CCM/ES/000088.Fernández Martínez, CJ. (2018). Dynamic model development of enteric methane emission from goats based on energy balance measured in indirect open circuit respiration calorimeter. Global Ecology and Conservation. 15:1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00439S1141

International tourism and climate change

Tourism is a major global economic sector that is undergoing tremendous growth in emerging economies and is often touted as salient for development and poverty alleviation in developing countries. Tourism is recognized as a highly climate-sensitive sector, one that is also strongly influenced by environmental and socioeconomic change influenced by climate change, and is also a growing contributor to anthropogenic climate change. This article outlines the complex interrelationships between climate change and the multiple components of the international tourism system. Five focal themes that have developed within the literature on the consequences of climate change for tourism are then critically reviewed: climatic change and temporal and geographic shifts in tourism demand, climate-induced environmental change and destination competitiveness within three major market segments (winter sports tourism, coastal tourism, and nature-based tourism), and mitigation policy developments and future tourist mobility. The review highlights the differential vulnerability of tourism destinations and that the resultant changes in competitiveness and sustainability will transform some international tourism markets. Feedbacks throughout the tourism system mean that all destinations will need to adapt to the risks and opportunities posed by climate change and climate policy. While notable progress has been made in the last decade, a number of important knowledge gaps in each of the major impact areas, key regional knowledge gaps, and both tourist and tourism operator perceptions of climate change risks and adaptive capacity indicate that the tourism sector is not currently well prepared for the challenges of climate change. </p