Method of control of efficiency of investment projects based on real option theory and method of analysis of hierarchies

The article is devoted to the development of a method for valuation and control of the efficiency of investment projects under conditions of high uncertainty. The limitations of the traditional valuation methods of the efficiency of investment projects are highlighted and a more relevant approach through the application of real option theory is proposed that allows for evaluating a project based on tis multivariance and the possibility of decision making at every stage of its development. The article shows that, despite the high relevance of the real options theory, its practical use is very difficult for a number of reasons. The main problem of estimating the value of real options is the need to use in the calculation a sufficient number of a priori statistics regarding the project, which is unfeasible. The authors propose a method in which the probabilistic characteristics of the model project are replaced with correct expert ratings. The method is referred to as the modified ROV-method (MROV). This method is based on the binomial model of assessing the value of real options by building a decision tree. At each node of the tree the project might develop in line with an “optimistic” or “pessimistic” forecast. Since the development of the project under any scenario depends on a number of criteria of the environment, the task of assessing the value of real options becomes a multicriteria one. One of the most sound and practically relevant methods of solving such problems is the method of analytic hierarchy process, which is the basis of the developed MROV method. The article also details the algorithm of implementing this method to determine quantitative estimates of the relative probabilities of the development of the project on “optimistic” or “pessimistic” scenarios in each node of the binomial tree. The resulting estimates subsequently used as weights in the calculation of the net present value of the optional investment project for a decision on the feasibility of its implementation and inclusion of the real options being evaluated in the project.Статья посвящена разработке метода оценки и управления эффективностью инвестиционных проектов в условиях высокой степени неопределенности. Обозначена ограниченность традиционных методов оценки эффективности инвестиционных проектов и предложен более актуальный подход на основе применения теории реальных опционов, который позволяет оценить проект с учетом его многовариантности и возможности принятия решений на каждом этапе его развития. В статье показано, что, несмотря на высокую актуальность теории реальных опционов, ее практическое использование весьма затруднительно по ряду причин. Основной проблемой в отношении оценки стоимости реальных опционов является необходимость использования в расчетах достаточного количества априорных статистических данных относительно проекта, что на практике является труднореализуемой задачей. Авторами предложен метод, в рамках которого вероятностные характеристики модели проекта заменяются корректными экспертными оценками, названный модифицированным ROV-методом (MROV). За основу данного метода взята биномиальная модель оценки стоимости реального опциона, основанная на построении дерева решений, в каждом узле которого возможно развитие проекта по оптимистическому или пессимистическому прогнозу. Поскольку развитие проекта по какому-либо сценарию зависит от ряда критериев среды, то задача оценки стоимости реального опциона становится многокритериальной задачей. Одним из наиболее обоснованных и практически адекватных методов решения подобных задач является метод анализа иерархий, который и положен в основу разрабатываемого MROV-метода. Также в статье подробно описан алгоритм реализации данного метода для определения количественных оценок относительных вероятностей развития проекта по «оптимистическому» или «пессимистическому» сценарию в каждом узле биномиального дерева решений. Полученные оценки в последующем используются в качестве весов при расчете чистой приведенной стоимости вариативного опционального инвестиционного проекта для принятия решения о целесообразности его реализации и включении в проект, оцениваемых реальных опционов

ChloroMitoSSRDB 2.00: More genomes, more repeats, unifying SSRs search patterns and on-the-fly repeat detection

© The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. Organelle genomes evolve rapidly as compared with nuclear genomes and have been widely used for developing microsatellites or simple sequence repeats (SSRs) markers for delineating phylogenomics. In our previous reports, we have established the largest repository of organelle SSRs, ChloroMitoSSRDB, which provides access to 2161 organelle genomes (1982 mitochondrial and 179 chloroplast genomes) with a total of 5838 perfect chloroplast SSRs, 37 297 imperfect chloroplast SSRs, 5898 perfect mitochondrial SSRs and 50 355 imperfect mitochondrial SSRs across organelle genomes. In the present research, we have updated ChloroMitoSSRDB by systematically analyzing and adding additional 191 chloroplast and 2102 mitochondrial genomes. With the recent update, ChloroMitoSSRDB 2.00 provides access to a total of 4454 organelle genomes displaying a total of 40 653 IMEx Perfect SSRs (11 802 Chloroplast Perfect SSRs and 28 851 Mitochondria Perfect SSRs), 275 981 IMEx Imperfect SSRs (78 972 Chloroplast Imperfect SSRs and 197 009 Mitochondria Imperfect SSRs), 35 250 MISA (MIcroSAtellite identification tool) Perfect SSRs and 3211 MISA Compound SSRs and associated information such as location of the repeats (coding and non-coding), size of repeat, motif and length polymorphism, and primer pairs. Additionally, we have integrated and made available several in silico SSRs mining tools through a unified web-portal for in silico repeat mining for assembled organelle genomes and from next generation sequencing reads. ChloroMitoSSRDB 2.00 allows the end user to perform multiple SSRs searches and easy browsing through the SSRs using two repeat algorithms and provide primer pair information for identified SSRs for evolutionary genomics

Research of Geopolymer Foam Concrete on the Base of the Wastes Produced By Kemerovo Heat and Power Enterprises

The article shows the results of the research on geopolymer foam concrete production on the base of the wastes of Kemerovo heat and power enterprises. Relationships between the compression strength and average density of geopolymer foam concrete and the alkaline activator amount, alkaline concentration, foaming agent amount and duration of the blend mechanical activation were determined. It was found out that being in its optimal composition the material obtained has strength 2.0-3.5 MPa under density from 350 up to 500 kg/m3. Infusion of the developed construction material on the basis of the industrial wastes will allow to change more expensive construction materials on the cement base and provide the utilization of the industrial wastes

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

The peculiarities of ultrasound wave propagation in magnetorheological fluid with complex dispersive phase

This work is devoted to experimental study of the peculiarities of ultrasound wave propagation in magnetorheological fluid (MRF) with complex disperse phase under evaluation of changing of ultrasonic waves (UW) velocity in MRF on the base of water, oxide powder and carbonyl iron particles vs. intensity of applied magnetic field have been obtained. It was found that in the result of magnetic field separation the oxide layer thickness of MRF is increasing with the field value and can be determined by 2-3 µm and lesser

Mitochondrial Permeability Transition, Cell Death and Neurodegeneration

Neurodegenerative diseases are chronic conditions occurring when neurons die in specific brain regions that lead to loss of movement or cognitive functions. Despite the progress in understanding the mechanisms of this pathology, currently no cure exists to treat these types of diseases: for some of them the only help is alleviating the associated symptoms. Mitochondrial dysfunction has been shown to be involved in the pathogenesis of most the neurodegenerative disorders. The fast and transient permeability of mitochondria (the mitochondrial permeability transition, mPT) has been shown to be an initial step in the mechanism of apoptotic and necrotic cell death, which acts as a regulator of tissue regeneration for postmitotic neurons as it leads to the irreparable loss of cells and cell function. In this study, we review the role of the mitochondrial permeability transition in neuronal death in major neurodegenerative diseases, covering the inductors of mPTP opening in neurons, including the major ones—free radicals and calcium—and we discuss perspectives and difficulties in the development of a neuroprotective strategy based on the inhibition of mPTP in neurodegenerative disorders

Results of hydraulic calculations of the Chernozemelskaya irrigation system channels

Purpose: hydraulic calculations of the current water supply network of the Chernozemelskaya irrigation system channels. Materials and methods. The materials for the calculations were: operational records of the Chernozemelskaya irrigation system, the results of field surveys of channels and data from instrumental measurements of water levels, velocities and water discharges in the surveyed discharge section lines of distributary channels. The field work was carried out according to the generally accepted rules and methods of surveys, hydrometric measurements and assessment of the reclamation facilities state. Channel hydraulic calculations were performed for the conditions of constant water flow in their channels on rectilinear sections. Calculations of the main elements of the water cross-section of the Chernozemelskaya irrigation system channels were carried out using passport data and the results of field surveys of these channels. Results. Calculations of the main elements of the water cross-section of the channels for the control stations on the Yashkul and Gashun distribution canals of the Chernozemelskaya irrigation system were performed, rating curves of discharge and average water flow velocity in channels from the depth of their filling were constructed; permissible (non-eroding and non-silting) velocities of water flow in the channels were determined. Conclusions. It was found for the discharge section line on the Gashun distribution canal, that siltation of the channel will occur at a water flow discharge of Q < 2.75 m³/s and channel filling of h < 1.0 m. When assessing the channel of the Gashun canal for the susceptibility to erosion, it was determined that the channel in the control station section can pass the specified discharge without being eroded. Checking the channel of the Yashkul distribution canal in the control section for siltation and erosion showed that its channel will not be eroded in the considered range of water flow velocities from 0.62–1.14 m/s