Forecasting the impact of infrastructure on Swedish commuters’ cycling behaviour.

Abstract In this paper we investigate the impact of four cycling environments on the propensity to cycle to work. The types of infrastructure investigated were mixed traffic, bicycle lane in the road way, bicycle path next to the road, and bicycle path not in connection with the road. In the mode choice model we combined three different data sets, two with stated preference data and one with revealed preference data, restricted to only include journeys of 12 km or less. At baseline, 24% of the cycling time was spent in mixed traffic, 2% in bicycle lanes, 42% on a bicycle path near the road way, and 31% on a bicycle path not in connection to a road way. Values of travel time savings for bicycling independent on infrastructure (based on revealed preference data) was 176 SEK/h, for cycling in mixed traffic it was 241 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle lane in the road way it was 249 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle path next to the road it was 178 SEK/h, and for cycling on a bicycle path far from the road it was 167 SEK/h (all differentiated values are based on rescaled stated preference data). Using an incremental form of the logit model we found that the biggest shift to cycle that may be possible is if all cycling after the change takes place on the bike path far from the road. The proportion of cyclists in this sample would then increase from 51.0% to 61.3%, i.e. an increase of 20%. Keywords Abstract In this paper we investigate the impact of four cycling environments on the propensity to cycle to work. The types of infrastructure investigated were mixed traffic, bicycle lane in the road way, bicycle path next to the road, and bicycle path not in connection with the road. In the mode choice model we combined three different data sets, two with stated preference data and one with revealed preference data, restricted to only include journeys of 12 km or less. At baseline, 24% of the cycling time was spent in mixed traffic, 2% in bicycle lanes, 42% on a bicycle path near the road way, and 31% on a bicycle path not in connection to a road way. Values of travel time savings for bicycling independent on infrastructure (based on revealed preference data) was 176 SEK/h, for cycling in mixed traffic it was 241 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle lane in the road way it was 249 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle path next to the road it was 178 SEK/h, and for cycling on a bicycle path far from the road it was 167 SEK/h (all differentiated values are based on rescaled stated preference data). Using an incremental form of the logit model we found that the biggest shift to cycle that may be possible is if all cycling after the change takes place on the bike path far from the road. The proportion of cyclists in this sample would then increase from 51.0% to 61.3%, i.e. an increase of 20%

Forecasting the impact of infrastructure on Swedish commuters’ cycling behaviour.

Abstract In this paper we investigate the impact of four cycling environments on the propensity to cycle to work. The types of infrastructure investigated were mixed traffic, bicycle lane in the road way, bicycle path next to the road, and bicycle path not in connection with the road. In the mode choice model we combined three different data sets, two with stated preference data and one with revealed preference data, restricted to only include journeys of 12 km or less. At baseline, 24% of the cycling time was spent in mixed traffic, 2% in bicycle lanes, 42% on a bicycle path near the road way, and 31% on a bicycle path not in connection to a road way. Values of travel time savings for bicycling independent on infrastructure (based on revealed preference data) was 176 SEK/h, for cycling in mixed traffic it was 241 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle lane in the road way it was 249 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle path next to the road it was 178 SEK/h, and for cycling on a bicycle path far from the road it was 167 SEK/h (all differentiated values are based on rescaled stated preference data). Using an incremental form of the logit model we found that the biggest shift to cycle that may be possible is if all cycling after the change takes place on the bike path far from the road. The proportion of cyclists in this sample would then increase from 51.0% to 61.3%, i.e. an increase of 20%. Keywords Abstract In this paper we investigate the impact of four cycling environments on the propensity to cycle to work. The types of infrastructure investigated were mixed traffic, bicycle lane in the road way, bicycle path next to the road, and bicycle path not in connection with the road. In the mode choice model we combined three different data sets, two with stated preference data and one with revealed preference data, restricted to only include journeys of 12 km or less. At baseline, 24% of the cycling time was spent in mixed traffic, 2% in bicycle lanes, 42% on a bicycle path near the road way, and 31% on a bicycle path not in connection to a road way. Values of travel time savings for bicycling independent on infrastructure (based on revealed preference data) was 176 SEK/h, for cycling in mixed traffic it was 241 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle lane in the road way it was 249 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle path next to the road it was 178 SEK/h, and for cycling on a bicycle path far from the road it was 167 SEK/h (all differentiated values are based on rescaled stated preference data). Using an incremental form of the logit model we found that the biggest shift to cycle that may be possible is if all cycling after the change takes place on the bike path far from the road. The proportion of cyclists in this sample would then increase from 51.0% to 61.3%, i.e. an increase of 20%

Reducing asymmetric information with usage-based automobile insurance

Abstract: Automobile insurers currently use available information about the vehicle, the owner and residential area when determining the probability of a claim (insurance risk). A drawback is that several risk classification variables are based on the policyholder's self-reported risk. This study highlights the fact that the information asymmetry associated with classifying risk may cause unfair premiums, since it is possible for high risk drivers to mimic low risk drivers. The aim of this paper is to explore the possibility of reducing information asymmetries by introducing a Usage Based Insurance (UBI) option where the driving behavior is monitored. While most models focus on identifying the high risk type, this approach provides an opportunity for the low risk individuals to reveal their type. The results suggest that voluntary UBI is an efficient instrument to separate risks and that the low risk drivers do not suffer the utility loss generally associated with asymmetric information. Introducing UBI as an additional contract enables full coverage at an actuarially fair premium for both types of policyholders. Besides, by reducing information asymmetries UBI can, in a wider perspective, provide incentives for the high risk driver to become a low risk driver by reducing risk-taking behavior

Extracorporeal cellular therapy (ELAD) in severe alcoholic hepatitis: A multinational, prospective, controlled, randomized trial.

Severe alcoholic hepatitis (sAH) is associated with a poor prognosis. There is no proven effective treatment for sAH, which is why early transplantation has been increasingly discussed. Hepatoblastoma-derived C3A cells express anti-inflammatory proteins and growth factors and were tested in an extracorporeal cellular therapy (ELAD) study to establish their effect on survival for subjects with sAH. Adults with sAH, bilirubin ≥8 mg/dL, Maddrey\u27s discriminant function ≥ 32, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score ≤ 35 were randomized to receive standard of care (SOC) only or 3-5 days of continuous ELAD treatment plus SOC. After a minimum follow-up of 91 days, overall survival (OS) was assessed by using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. A total of 203 subjects were enrolled (96 ELAD and 107 SOC) at 40 sites worldwide. Comparison of baseline characteristics showed no significant differences between groups and within subgroups. There was no significant difference in serious adverse events between the 2 groups. In an analysis of the intent-to-treat population, there was no difference in OS (51.0% versus 49.5%). The study failed its primary and secondary end point in a population with sAH and with a MELD ranging from 18 to 35 and no upper age limit. In the prespecified analysis of subjects with MELD \u3c 28 (n = 120), ELAD was associated with a trend toward higher OS at 91 days (68.6% versus 53.6%; P = .08). Regression analysis identified high creatinine and international normalized ratio, but not bilirubin, as the MELD components predicting negative outcomes with ELAD. A new trial investigating a potential benefit of ELAD in younger subjects with sufficient renal function and less severe coagulopathy has been initiated. Liver Transplantation 24 380-393 2018 AASLD