Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions

We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.Comment: 16 page

La matière organique des alternances sel-Marne du salar d'Uyuni (Altiplano, Bolivie) : études géochimiques et palynologiques

Le sondage UA, au centre du salar d'Uyuni, a traversé une alternance de sédiments halitiques et "lacustres" sur plus de 120 m de profondeur. Diverses analyses, géochimiques, palynologiques, pétrographiques et minéralogiques, ont été effectuées afin d'étudier la matière organique présente. Cette MO est peu abondante (COT = 0,4% en moyenne) par rapport à celle des alternances "sel-marne" d'autres séries. Le palynofaciès montre une grande richesse relative en algues planctoniques lacustres, bien que cette MO ne se comporte pas comme un type I : les paramètres de pyrolyse Rock-Eval la rapprochent d'une MO de type II (classiquement observée dans les faciès sapropéliques en domaine marin). (Résumé d'auteur

Temporal variability and social heterogeneity in disease transmission: The case of SARS in Hong Kong

The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model was used: the population was split into healthcare workers, hospitalized people and general population. Super spreading events (SSEs) were taken into account in the model. The temporal evolutions of the daily effective contact rates in the community and hospitals were modeled with smooth functions. Data augmentation techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were applied to estimate SARS epidemiological parameters. In particular, estimates of daily reproduction numbers were provided for each subpopulation. The average duration of the SARS infectious period was estimated to be 9.3 days (±0.3 days). The model was able to disentangle the impact of the two SSEs from background transmission rates. The effective contact rates, which were estimated on a daily basis, decreased with time, reaching zero inside hospitals. This observation suggests that public health measures and possible changes in individual behaviors effectively reduced transmission, especially in hospitals. The temporal patterns of reproduction numbers were similar for healthcare workers and the general population, indicating that on average, an infectious healthcare worker did not infect more people than any other infectious person. We provide a general method to estimate time dependence of parameters in structured epidemic models, which enables investigation of the impact of control measures and behavioral changes in different settings. © 2009 Cori et al.published_or_final_versio

Association of environmental markers with childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus revealed by a long questionnaire on early life exposures and lifestyle in a case–control study

First available in BioRxiv doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/063438International audienceBackground. The incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence is rising in many countries, supposedly because of changing environmental factors, which are yet largely unknown. The purpose of the study was to unravel environmental markers associated with T1D.Methods. Cases were children with T1D from the French Isis-Diab cohort. Controls were schoolmates or friends of the patients. Parents were asked to fill a 845-item questionnaire investigating the child’s environment before diagnosis. The analysis took into account the matching between cases and controls. A second analysis used propensity score methods.Results. We found a negative association of several lifestyle variables, gastroenteritis episodes, dental hygiene, hazelnut cocoa spread consumption, wasp and bee stings with T1D, consumption of vegetables from a farm and death of a pet by old age.Conclusions. The found statistical association of new environmental markers with T1D calls for replication in other cohorts and investigation of new environmental areas.Trial registration. Clinical-Trial.gov NCT02212522. Registered August 6, 2014.

Exhaust gas sensor based on tin dioxide for automotive application

International audienceThe aim of this paper is to investigate the potentialities of gas sensor based on semi-conductor for exhaust gas automotive application. The sensing element is a tin dioxide layer with gold electrodes. This gas sensor is able to detect both reducing and oxidizing gases in an exhaust pipe with varying selectivity depending on the temperature in the range 250° C-600° C. At low temperature 350-400° C, the sensor detects nitrogen dioxide while it is more sensitive to carbon monoxide at temperatures exceeding 500° C

Prion diseases are efficiently transmitted by blood transfusion in sheep

The emergence of variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease, following on from the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic, led to concerns about the potential risk of iatrogenic transmission of disease by blood transfusion and the introduction of costly control measures to protect blood supplies. We previously reported preliminary data demonstrating the transmission of BSE and natural scrapie by blood transfusion in sheep. The final results of this experiment, reported here, give unexpectedly high transmission rates by transfusion of 36% for BSE and 43% for scrapie. A proportion of BSE-infected tranfusion recipients (3 of 8) survived for up to 7 years without showing clinical signs of disease. The majority of transmissions resulted from blood collected from donors at more than 50% of the estimated incubation period. The high transmission rates and relatively short and consistent incubation periods in clinically positive recipients suggest that infectivity titers in blood were substantial and/or that blood transfusion is an efficient method of transmission. This experiment has established the value of using sheep as a model for studying transmission of variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease by blood products in humans. (Blood. 2008; 112: 4739-4745

Causes of early-onset type 1 diabetes: toward data-driven environmental approaches

A new study reveals distinctive metabolic changes that precede the development of type 1 diabetes (T1D), tossing a stone into the quiet waters of T1D immunology and genetics. The causes of these metabolic changes and their relationship to autoimmunity and β cell destruction are not yet known, but the identification of a metabolic phenotype linked to susceptibility to type I diabetes may help pave the way to a new era of investigation of T1D causality