A cautionary note on using the scale prior for the parameter N of a binomial distribution

Statistical analysis of ecological data may require the estimation of the size of a population, or of the number of species with a certain population. This task frequently reduces to estimating the discrete parameter N representing the number of trials in a binomial distribution. In Bayesian methods, there has been a substantial amount of discussion on how to select the prior for N. We propose a prior for N based on an objective measure of the worth that each value of N has in being included in the model space. This prior is compared (through the analysis of the popular snowshoe hare dataset) with the scale prior which, in our opinion, cannot be understood from solid objective considerations

Science and Theology: A Working Synthesis

Theologians and scientists, working independently, have provided worldviews that lead to questions about the meaning of existence and human life. When these disciplines interact, opportunity exists for more profound insight. Two individuals, Johannes Kepler in the sixteenth century and Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in the twentieth, attempted theological reconstructions based on revolutionary theories of their eras. Informed by a fierce faith in God and a rigorous pursuit of truth derived from the scientific method, their attempts at synthesizing these fields led to results that were unexpected, even unwanted. Yet they provide lessons in the present age for interpretations of the new discoveries and the responsibility of humankind to play an active role in the modern creation story

Political Inequality and the Origins of Distrust: Evidence for Colombia

This paper aims to identify the effect of political exclusion on social capital in Colombia, suggesting social capital as an important channel through which political inequality has been central for Colombian economic development. I use the Colombian National Front agreement during 1958-1974 to test my hypothesis, as it institutionalized the political exclusion of non-traditional parties in that country. Whereas it affected all regions at the same time, it implied differential effects according to the municipalities’ initial political diversity. The empirical strategy deals with the potential endogeneity in the variation of the treatment by using region fixed effects and relevant control variables in a cross-section model, as well as performing robustness checks. I further use panel fixed effects models with electoral turnout as a measure of social capital. I find that political exclusion imposed by the National Front may have led to less trusting individuals today, to a higher perception of free riding behaviors and to lower levels of electoral turnout. I also find that a possible channel through which political exclusion in the past may be able to explain social capital in the present is distrust towards the state

Leptotyphlops nasalis

Number of Pages: 1Integrative BiologyGeological Science