The effects of disasters on income mobility: Bootstrap inference and measurement error simulations

We evaluate the impact of disasters on income mobility by drawing on "natural experiments". While the poor have a much higher probability of remaining poor when entering a crisis compared to normal times, there is also a negative effect in the year after. Richer households seem to be unaffected. A simple bootstrap method is proposed to facilitate statistical inference for mobility matrices. Also, we simulate measurement error to illustrate its magnitude on these matrices. Small errors induce a substantial downward bias of the probability of remaining poor, while comp arisons across states seem more robust, which is promising for impact analysis.Income mobility Effects of disasters Bootstrap Measurement error Simulations Natural experiments Control group Treatment group Poverty

Powerful donors and foreign policy: The role of multilateral financial institutions

The opportunity for a powerful donor country, such as the United States, to use a multilateral financial institution (MFI) strategically in order to promote its own foreign policy goals has received little attention. The gain to a donor that is able to make the World Bank or other MFIs adapt to this donor's view on an issue can be substantial. In that case, all the contributions from the other member nations will also stand behind the MFI's stance on the particular issue, and recipients may feel compelled to comply with this massive counterpart. As a result, influencing MFIs may give much more leverage to a donor's foreign assistance in the foreign policy arena than pursuing the same goals bilaterally with the same amount of aid. We present a model where a donor tries to influence a MFI to put pressure on a recipient to comply with the foreign policy interests of the donor. This game-theoretic multi-agent model with one donor, two MFIs and one recipient illustrates the virtue of using the multilateral as an instrument in foreign policy as seen from the powerful donor's point of view. Similarly, we show how this strategic behavior is damaging for the recipient in particular and for development in general.Foreign policies Conditionality Unilateralism

Finding Induced Subgraphs via Minimal Triangulations

Potential maximal cliques and minimal separators are combinatorial objects which were introduced and studied in the realm of minimal triangulations problems including Minimum Fill-in and Treewidth. We discover unexpected applications of these notions to the field of moderate exponential algorithms. In particular, we show that given an n-vertex graph G together with its set of potential maximal cliques Pi_G, and an integer t, it is possible in time |Pi_G| * n^(O(t)) to find a maximum induced subgraph of treewidth t in G; and for a given graph F of treewidth t, to decide if G contains an induced subgraph isomorphic to F. Combined with an improved algorithm enumerating all potential maximal cliques in time O(1.734601^n), this yields that both problems are solvable in time 1.734601^n * n^(O(t)).Comment: 14 page

Multilateral Aid Agencies and Strategic Donor Behaviour

The paper builds on recent empirical evidence on the importance of strategic donor behaviour in aid allocation in order to develop a theoretical model where donor pressure on a recipient for influencing the aid disbursement of a multilateral institution is endogenously determined. Our game-theoretic, multi-agent model with one aid recipient, two bilateral donors and one multilateral institution illustrates the advantage of putting pressure on the recipient as an instrument for foreign policy, as seen from the mighty donor's point of view. The model shows how this strategic donor behaviour is damaging to the aid-recipient; we also show that other donors not sharing foreign policy goals similar to the strategic, influential donors will, in fact, reduce their aid contributions to the multilateral organizations. This may obviously have profound implications for the volume of total aid flows and may crucially undermine current efforts to substantially increase ODA to meet the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. Our paper also contributes to the common debate on foreign aid by presenting a rigorous model that explains the coexistence of both multilateral aid organizations and bilateral aid programmes.foreign aid, strategic donor behaviour, multilateral aid agencies

Determinants of foreign direct investment in services

This study uses industry level foreign direct investment (FDI) data from 57 countries 1989-2000, to examine the host country determinants of FDI flows in services as a whole, and in the major service industries. Consistent with the observation that many services are non-tradable, we find that service FDI is market-seeking, and unaffected by trade openness. Producer services are important in binding together vertically disintegrated chains of production, accordingly we find a strong correlation between FDI in manufacturing and FDI in finance and transport. While composite political risk does not affect FDI in services, disaggregate socio-political indices prove significant in certain service industries.Foreign direct investment Services

Promoting investment in small Caribbean states

This study performs an econometric analysis to determine the main policy levers for investment promotion in the Caribbean. The results provide the following policy advice to Caribbean policy makers seeking to increase investment in, and hence the growth prospectives of, their countries. 1. Investment, both foreign and domestic, is higher in countries that are open to international trade. Our results also suggest that Caribbean countries might see a greater effect of trade integration than other countries. Caribbean governments should therefore pursue regional trade arrangements, and actively support the WTO process of global trade liberalization. 2. Investment, both foreign and domestic, is higher in countries whose domestic markets are larger and more advanced. Regional integration to expand what is considered the domestic market, is thus beneficial. 3. Investment, both foreign and domestic, is higher in countries with greater political stability. To inspire confidence among investors, Caribbean countries should avoid major political disruptions, by pursuing inclusive and participatory policies. Our results suggest that investment is particularly responsive to stability issues in countries like Haiti, Guyana, Dominica, and Grenada. 4. Foreign investors are discouraged by bad macro-economic policies, poor infrastructure, and excessive regulation. Caribbean countries should avoid periods of high inflation and large debt burdens, and develop functional infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.FDI (Foreign Direct Investment Domestic investment Small states Caribbean

The role of participation and empowerment in income and poverty dynamics in Indonesia 1993-2000

The objective of this study is to assess whether living in a community that has a more democratic decision making system or in a society with a higher degree of participation and cooperation has any effect on household income changes and poverty reduction in Indonesia. Constructing an empowerment index and a participation index, we find that a household would have had a two percentage point higher income growth from 1993 to 2000 if it had been in a society with a high degree of cooperation compared to a society with the lowest degree of cooperation, if our results imply causality. This is substantial, since the average household per capita real income growth between 1993 and 2000 was 11 %. The participation index was found to be insignificant.Household income Poverty reduction Indonesia

Is bonded labor voluntary? A framework against forced work

UN estimate that 20 million are held in bonded labor. Several economic analyses assert that bonded laborers accept these contracts voluntarily, which could imply that a ban would make such laborers worse off. We question the voluntariness of bonded labor, and present a mechanism that keeps workers trapped. With different types of landlords not revealed to the laborer, we show how some landlords manipulate contract terms so that the laborer becomes bonded. Enforcement mechanisms and the monopolistic market for credit thus play a joint role. Providing alternative sources of credit, offer proper conflict resolution institutions over labor-contract disputes and banning could emancipate bonded labor, which would make them better off.Coercion Debt slavery Power Bonded labor Nepal Asia

"Economic Aid to Post-conflict Countries: A Methodological Critique of Collier and Hoeffler"

This paper retests the analysis of "Aid Policy and Growth in Post-Conflict Societies," by Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler (October 2002 and forthcoming in European Economic Review). It finds that their data and analysis do not support their conclusions and policy recommendations on the optimal timing and amounts of aid. These conclusions depend on very few observations (13 for the period of peace-onset, 13 for years 4 to 7 when a growth spurt is said to make aid particularly effective, and 8 for the period when aid should taper off); are vulnerable to the same methodological misspecifications identified in the Burnside and Dollar approach on which this analysis is based; and are not grounded in any theoretical formulation about the special relation between aid and growth in post-conflict conditions. Conventional econometric procedures are often not followed; recoding the sample to exclude cases that are not civil wars reduces the effect of aid on growth in post-civil war countries to less than half of what they claim; and the difference with the relationship for "normal" countries becomes negligible (0.26 percentage points), although it depends on identification of the sample. Their claims on the poverty-efficiency of aid are assumed, not analysed. The confidentiality of their policy measure (CPIA) prevented testing the aid-policy relationship.Economic aid Post-conflict Methodology