Predicting Paths of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using Monthly Surface Pressure Data

Previous research has had some success in predicting likely tracks of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies (above or below average values) during preceding months. This paper expands on this research by incorporating other surface pressure values as independent variables as alluded to by some of the earliest NAO research. We examine monthly sea-level-pressure (SLP) data from Reykjavik (Iceland), Cape Hatteras (North Carolina), and Nassau (Bahamas), along with NAO index anomalies, to see if they can be used to predict future paths and landfall locations of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the period 1970–2005. Average SLP from Nassau during the preceding May and June shows the strongest correlations with tropical cyclone tracks, with increased values correlated with more cyclones impacting the southeastern United States, but fewer landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico. Results also show virtually no relationship between the storm variables tested and the NAO index

Carolina Forum: Western North Carolina: Destruction or Protection?; Computers and Cultural Resources: A Planning Perspective; A Balanced Approach to Industrial Development

This edition of Carolina Forum includes the following: WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA: DESTRUCTION OR PROTECTION? As coordinator of the Western North Carolina Mountain League and founder of the Save Joyce Kilmer League, I would like to take this opportunity to present a most interesting and pressing problem in regional planning. COMPUTERS AND CULTURAL RESOURCES: A PLANNING PERSPECTIVE: Under the auspices of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 and the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) of 1966, applicants for federal funds for planning or development must evaluate the effects of their activities on significant cultural resources*. When cultural resource data are not readily available to project planners, or are not incorporated into the planning process in its early stages, problems and project delays often result. A BALANCED APPROACH TO INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT: Trying to plan for economic growth in a free economy is like trying to herd a covey of flushed quail. At best, you move it in a general direction. Happily, North Carolina does have strong economic growth these days, and what once was nicknamed "Tobacco Road" is now hailed the bustling "Sunbelt." The state has enjoyed a steady increase in new capital investments for the past three years, and 1978 continues the trend. Governor Jim Hunt has emphasized economic development in his administration, and he has engaged the state in an ambitious effort to develop a "balanced growth" policy

Extended optical treatment versus early patching with an intensive patching regimen in children with amblyopia in Europe (EuPatch): a multicentre, randomised controlled trial

Background: Amblyopia, the most common visual impairment of childhood, is a public health concern. An extended period of optical treatment before patching is recommended by the clinical guidelines of several countries. The aim of this study was to compare an intensive patching regimen, with and without extended optical treatment (EOT), in a randomised controlled trial. Methods: EuPatch was a randomised controlled trial conducted in 30 hospitals in the UK, Greece, Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. Children aged 3–8 years with newly detected, untreated amblyopia (defined as an interocular difference ≥0·30 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution [logMAR] best corrected visual acuity [BCVA]) due to anisometropia, strabismus, or both were eligible. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated sequence to either the EOT group (18 weeks of glasses use before patching) or to the early patching group (3 weeks of glasses use before patching), stratified for type and severity of amblyopia. All participants were initially prescribed an intensive patching regimen (10 h/day, 6 days per week), supplemented with motivational materials. The patching period was up to 24 weeks. Participants, parents or guardians, assessors, and the trial statistician were not masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was successful treatment (ie, ≤0·20 logMAR interocular difference in BCVA) after 12 weeks of patching. Two primary analyses were conducted: the main analysis included all participants, including those who dropped out, but excluded those who did not provide outcome data at week 12 and remained on the study; the other analysis imputed this missing data. All eligible and randomly assigned participants were assessed for adverse events. This study is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry (ISRCTN51712593) and is no longer recruiting. Findings: Between June 20, 2013, and March 12, 2020, after exclusion of eight participants found ineligible after detailed screening, we randomly assigned 334 participants (170 to the EOT group and 164 to the early patching group), including 188 (56%) boys, 146 (44%) girls, and two (1%) participants whose sex was not recorded. 317 participants (158 in the EOT group and 159 in the early patching group) were analysed for the primary outcome without imputation of missing data (median follow-up time 42 weeks [IQR 42] in the EOT group vs 27 weeks [27] in the early patching group). 24 (14%) of 170 participants in the EOT group and ten (6%) of 164 in the early patching group were excluded or dropped out of the study, mostly due to loss to follow-up and withdrawal of consent; ten (6%) in the EOT group and three (2%) in the early patching group missed the 12 week visit but remained on the study. A higher proportion of participants in the early patching group had successful treatment (107 [67%] of 159) than those in the EOT group (86 [54%] of 158; 13% difference; p=0·019) after 12 weeks of patching. No serious adverse events related to the interventions occurred. Interpretation: The results from this trial indicate that early patching is more effective than EOT for the treatment of most children with amblyopia. Our findings also provide data for the personalisation of amblyopia treatments. Funding: Action Medical Research, NIHR Clinical Research Network, and Ulverscroft Foundation

Extended optical treatment versus early patching with an intensive patching regimen in children with amblyopia in Europe (EuPatch): a multicentre, randomised controlled trial

Background Amblyopia, the most common visual impairment of childhood, is a public health concern. An extended period of optical treatment before patching is recommended by the clinical guidelines of several countries. The aim of this study was to compare an intensive patching regimen, with and without extended optical treatment (EOT), in a randomised controlled trial. Methods EuPatch was a randomised controlled trial conducted in 30 hospitals in the UK, Greece, Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. Children aged 3–8 years with newly detected, untreated amblyopia (defined as an interocular difference ≥0·30 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution [logMAR] best corrected visual acuity [BCVA]) due to anisometropia, strabismus, or both were eligible. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated sequence to either the EOT group (18 weeks of glasses use before patching) or to the early patching group (3 weeks of glasses use before patching), stratified for type and severity of amblyopia. All participants were initially prescribed an intensive patching regimen (10 h/day, 6 days per week), supplemented with motivational materials. The patching period was up to 24 weeks. Participants, parents or guardians, assessors, and the trial statistician were not masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was successful treatment (ie, ≤0·20 logMAR interocular difference in BCVA) after 12 weeks of patching. Two primary analyses were conducted: the main analysis included all participants, including those who dropped out, but excluded those who did not provide outcome data at week 12 and remained on the study; the other analysis imputed this missing data. All eligible and randomly assigned participants were assessed for adverse events. This study is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry (ISRCTN51712593) and is no longer recruiting. Findings Between June 20, 2013, and March 12, 2020, after exclusion of eight participants found ineligible after detailed screening, we randomly assigned 334 participants (170 to the EOT group and 164 to the early patching group), including 188 (56%) boys, 146 (44%) girls, and two (1%) participants whose sex was not recorded. 317 participants (158 in the EOT group and 159 in the early patching group) were analysed for the primary outcome without imputation of missing data (median follow-up time 42 weeks [IQR 42] in the EOT group vs 27 weeks [27] in the early patching group). 24 (14%) of 170 participants in the EOT group and ten (6%) of 164 in the early patching group were excluded or dropped out of the study, mostly due to loss to follow-up and withdrawal of consent; ten (6%) in the EOT group and three (2%) in the early patching group missed the 12 week visit but remained on the study. A higher proportion of participants in the early patching group had successful treatment (107 [67%] of 159) than those in the EOT group (86 [54%] of 158; 13% difference; p=0·019) after 12 weeks of patching. No serious adverse events related to the interventions occurred. Interpretation The results from this trial indicate that early patching is more effective than EOT for the treatment of most children with amblyopia. Our findings also provide data for the personalisation of amblyopia treatments. Funding Action Medical Research, NIHR Clinical Research Network, and Ulverscroft Foundation