Variable selection under multiple imputation using the bootstrap in a prognostic study

Background: Missing data is a challenging problem in many prognostic studies. Multiple imputation (MI) accounts for imputation uncertainty that allows for adequate statistical testing. We developed and tested a methodology combining MI with bootstrapping techniques for studying prognostic variable selection. Method: In our prospective cohort study we merged data from three different randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to assess prognostic variables for chronicity of low back pain. Among the outcome and prognostic variables data were missing in the range of 0 and 48.1%. We used four methods to investigate the influence of respectively sampling and imputation variation: MI only, bootstrap only, and two methods that combine MI and bootstrapping. Variables were selected based on the inclusion frequency of each prognostic variable, i.e. the proportion of times that the variable appeared in the model. The discriminative and calibrative abilities of prognostic models developed by the four methods were assessed at different inclusion levels. Results: We found that the effect of imputation variation on the inclusion frequency was larger than the effect of sampling variation. When MI and bootstrapping were combined at the range of 0% (full model) to 90% of variable selection, bootstrap corrected c-index values of 0.70 to 0.71 and slope values of 0.64 to 0.86 were found. Conclusion: We recommend to account for both imputation and sampling variation in sets of missing data. The new procedure of combining MI with bootstrapping for variable selection, results in multivariable prognostic models with good performance and is therefore attractive to apply on data sets with missing values

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Mathematical Modeling of Malaria Infection with Innate and Adaptive Immunity in Individuals and Agent-Based Communities

Background: Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns). Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT) studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB) communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities. Conclusions/Significance: Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodiu

The effect of alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on drinking behaviour in young people: systematic review of prospective cohort studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effect of alcohol portrayals and advertising on the drinking behaviour of young people is a matter of much debate. We evaluated the relationship between exposure to alcohol advertising, marketing and portrayal on subsequent drinking behaviour in young people by systematic review of cohort (longitudinal) studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>studies were identified in October 2006 by searches of electronic databases, with no date restriction, supplemented with hand searches of reference lists of retrieved articles. Cohort studies that evaluated exposure to advertising or marketing or alcohol portrayals and drinking at baseline and assessed drinking behaviour at follow-up in young people were selected and reviewed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>seven cohort studies that followed up more than 13,000 young people aged 10 to 26 years old were reviewed. The studies evaluated a range of different alcohol advertisement and marketing exposures including print and broadcast media. Two studies measured the hours of TV and music video viewing. All measured drinking behaviour using a variety of outcome measures. Two studies evaluated drinkers and non-drinkers separately. Baseline non-drinkers were significantly more likely to have become a drinker at follow-up with greater exposure to alcohol advertisements. There was little difference in drinking frequency at follow-up in baseline drinkers. In studies that included drinkers and non-drinkers, increased exposure at baseline led to significant increased risk of drinking at follow-up. The strength of the relationship varied between studies but effect sizes were generally modest. All studies controlled for age and gender, however potential confounding factors adjusted for in analyses varied from study to study. Important risk factors such as peer drinking and parental attitudes and behaviour were not adequately accounted for in some studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>data from prospective cohort studies suggest there is an association between exposure to alcohol advertising or promotional activity and subsequent alcohol consumption in young people. Inferences about the modest effect sizes found are limited by the potential influence of residual or unmeasured confounding.</p

Locally advanced and recurrent cancer

A successful treatment of locally advanced and recurrent rectal cancer is based on the responsibility of the surgeon to perform a radical resection. Planning of treatment starts with imaging with a pelvic MRI and a CT scan of chest and the abdomen. Neoadjuvant chemoradiation is given to achieve downstaging and downsizing. After a waiting period of at least 6 weeks, a total mesorectal excision is performed with often an extra-anatomical extension based on the initial imaging. Reconstruction using several types of pedicled flaps is often necessary to close the defect of the pelvic floor.</p

Ecological Guild Evolution and the Discovery of the World's Smallest Vertebrate

Living vertebrates vary drastically in body size, yet few taxa reach the extremely minute size of some frogs and teleost fish. Here we describe two new species of diminutive terrestrial frogs from the megadiverse hotspot island of New Guinea, one of which represents the smallest known vertebrate species, attaining an average body size of only 7.7 mm. Both new species are members of the recently described genus Paedophryne, the four species of which are all among the ten smallest known frog species, making Paedophryne the most diminutive genus of anurans. This discovery highlights intriguing ecological similarities among the numerous independent origins of diminutive anurans, suggesting that minute frogs are not mere oddities, but represent a previously unrecognized ecological guild

Modulation of dendritic spine development and plasticity by BDNF and vesicular trafficking: fundamental roles in neurodevelopmental disorders associated with mental retardation and autism

The process of axonal and dendritic development establishes the synaptic circuitry of the central nervous system (CNS) and is the result of interactions between intrinsic molecular factors and the external environment. One growth factor that has a compelling function in neuronal development is the neurotrophin brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). BDNF participates in axonal and dendritic differentiation during embryonic stages of neuronal development, as well as in the formation and maturation of dendritic spines during postnatal development. Recent studies have also implicated vesicular trafficking of BDNF via secretory vesicles, and both secretory and endosomal trafficking of vesicles containing synaptic proteins, such as neurotransmitter and neurotrophin receptors, in the regulation of axonal and dendritic differentiation, and in dendritic spine morphogenesis. Several genes that are either mutated or deregulated in neurodevelopmental disorders associated with mental retardation have now been identified, and several mouse models of these disorders have been generated and characterized. Interestingly, abnormalities in dendritic and synaptic structure are consistently observed in human neurodevelopmental disorders associated with mental retardation, and in mouse models of these disorders as well. Abnormalities in dendritic and synaptic differentiation are thought to underlie altered synaptic function and network connectivity, thus contributing to the clinical outcome. Here, we review the roles of BDNF and vesicular trafficking in axonal and dendritic differentiation in the context of dendritic and axonal morphological impairments commonly observed in neurodevelopmental disorders associated with mental retardation

A Randomized Trial to Assess Anti-HIV Activity in Female Genital Tract Secretions and Soluble Mucosal Immunity Following Application of 1% Tenofovir Gel

Preclinical and early phase clinical microbicide studies have not consistently predicted the outcome of efficacy trials. To address this gap, candidate biomarkers of microbicide pharmacodynamics and safety were evaluated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of tenofovir gel, the first microbicide to demonstrate significant protection against HIV acquisition.30 women were randomized to apply a single daily dose of tenofovir or placebo gel for 14 consecutive days. Anti-HIV activity was measured in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) on Days 0, 3, 7, 14 and 21 by luciferase assay as a surrogate marker of pharmacodynamics. Endogenous activity against E. coli and HSV-2 and concentrations of immune mediators were quantified in CVL as candidate biomarkers of safety. Tenofovir levels were measured in CVL and blood.A significant increase in anti-HIV activity was detected in CVL from women who applied tenofovir gel compared to their endogenous anti-HIV activity in genital tract secretions on Day 0 and compared to activity in CVL from women in the placebo group. The activity correlated significantly with CVL concentration of tenofovir (r = 0.6, p<0.001) and fit a sigmoid E(max) pharmacodynamic model. Anti-HIV activity in CVL from women who applied tenofovir persisted when virus was introduced in semen, whereas endogenous anti-HIV activity decreased. Tenofovir did not trigger an inflammatory response or induce sustained loss in endogenous antimicrobial activity or immune mediators.Tenofovir gel had no deleterious impact on soluble mucosal immunity. The increased anti-HIV activity in CVL, which persisted in the presence of semen and correlated with tenofovir concentration, is consistent with the efficacy observed in a recent clinical trial. These results promote quantified CVL anti-HIV activity as a surrogate of tissue pharmacodynamics and as a potential biomarker of adherence to product. This simple, feasible and inexpensive bioassay may promote the development of models more predictive of microbicide efficacy.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00594373