Risk factors for race-day fatality in flat racing Thoroughbreds in Great Britain (2000 to 2013)

A key focus of the racing industry is to reduce the number of race-day events where horses die suddenly or are euthanased due to catastrophic injury. The objective of this study was therefore to determine risk factors for race-day fatalities in Thoroughbred racehorses, using a cohort of all horses participating in flat racing in Great Britain between 2000 and 2013. Horse-, race- and course-level data were collected and combined with all race-day fatalities, recorded by racecourse veterinarians in a central database. Associations between exposure variables and fatality were assessed using logistic regression analyses for (1) all starts in the dataset and (2) starts made on turf surfaces only. There were 806,764 starts in total, of which 548,571 were on turf surfaces. A total of 610 fatalities were recorded; 377 (61.8%) on turf. In both regression models, increased firmness of the going, increasing racing distance, increasing average horse performance, first year of racing and wearing eye cover for the first time all increased the odds of fatality. Generally, the odds of fatality also increased with increasing horse age whereas increasing number of previous starts reduced fatality odds. In the ‘all starts’ model, horses racing in an auction race were at 1.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–2.01) times the odds of fatality compared with horses not racing in this race type. In the turf starts model, horses racing in Group 1 races were at 3.19 (95% CI 1.71–5.93) times the odds of fatality compared with horses not racing in this race type. Identification of novel risk factors including wearing eye cover and race type will help to inform strategies to further reduce the rate of fatality in flat racing horses, enhancing horse and jockey welfare and safety

Temporal variability in shell mound formation at Albatross Bay, northern Australia

We report the results of 212 radiocarbon determinations from the archaeological excavation of 70 shell mound deposits in the Wathayn region of Albatross Bay, Australia. This is an intensive study of a closely co-located group of mounds within a geographically restricted area in a wider region where many more shell mounds have been reported. Valves from the bivalve Tegillarcca granosa were dated. The dates obtained are used to calculate rates of accumulation for the shell mound deposits. These demonstrate highly variable rates of accumulation both within and between mounds. We assess these results in relation to likely mechanisms of shell deposition and show that rates of deposition are affected by time-dependent processes both during the accumulation of shell deposits and during their subsequent deformation. This complicates the interpretation of the rates at which shell mound deposits appear to have accumulated. At Wathayn, there is little temporal or spatial consistency in the rates at which mounds accumulated. Comparisons between the Wathayn results and those obtained from shell deposits elsewhere, both in the wider Albatross Bay region and worldwide, suggest the need for caution when deriving behavioural inferences from shell mound deposition rates, and the need for more comprehensive sampling of individual mounds and groups of mounds

Developing a utility index for the Aberrant Behavior Checklist (ABC-C) for fragile X syndrome

Purpose This study aimed to develop a utility index (the ABC-UI) from the Aberrant Behavior Checklist-Community (ABC-C), for use in quantifying the benefit of emerging treatments for fragile X syndrome (FXS). Methods The ABC-C is a proxy-completed assessment of behaviour and is a widely used measure in FXS. A subset of ABC-C items across seven dimensions was identified to include in health state descriptions. This item reduction process was based on item performance, factor analysis and Rasch analysis performed on an observational study dataset, and consultation with five clinical experts and a methodological expert. Dimensions were combined into health states using an orthogonal design and valued using time trade-off (TTO), with lead-time TTO methods used where TTO indicated a state valued as worse than dead. Preference weights were estimated using mean, individual level, ordinary least squares and random-effects maximum likelihood estimation [RE (MLE)] regression models. Results A representative sample of the UK general public (n = 349; mean age 35.8 years, 58.2 % female) each valued 12 health states. Mean observed values ranged from 0.92 to 0.16 for best to worst health states. The RE (MLE) model performed best based on number of significant coefficients and mean absolute error of 0.018. Mean utilities predicted by the model covered a similar range to that observed. Conclusions The ABC-UI estimates a wide range of utilities from patient-level FXS ABC-C data, allowing estimation of FXS health-related quality of life impact for economic evaluation from an established FXS clinical trial instrument

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Length-Weight Relationships and Condition of the Ribbonfish Trichiurus lepturus (Linnaeus, 1758): Implications for Fisheries Management

Knowledge of length-weight relationships for commercially exploited fish is an important tool for assessing and managing of fish stocks. However, analyses of length-weight relationship fisheries data typically do not consider the inherent differences in length-weight relationships for fish caught from different habitats, seasons, or years, and this can affect the utility of these data for developing condition indices or calculating fisheries biomass. Here, we investigated length-weight relationships for ribbonfish Trichiurus lepturus in the waters of the Arabian Sea off Oman collected during three periods (2001-02, 2007-08, and 2014-15) and showed that a multivariate modelling approach that considers the areas and seasons in which ribbonfish were caught improved estimation of length-weight relationships. We used the outputs of these models to explore spatio-temporal variations in condition indices and relative weights among ribbonfish, revealing fish of 85-125 cm were in the best overall condition. We also found that condition differed according to where and when fish were caught, with condition lowest during spring and pre-south-west monsoon periods and highest during and after the south-west monsoons. We interpret these differences to be a consequence of variability in temperature and food availability. Based on our findings, we suggest fishing during seasons that have the lowest impact on fish condition and which are commercially most viable; such fishery management would enhance fisheries conservation and economic revenue in the region

Catchment-scale biogeography of riverine bacterioplankton

Lotic ecosystems such as rivers and streams are unique in that they represent a continuum of both space and time during the transition from headwaters to the river mouth. As microbes have very different controls over their ecology, distribution and dispersion compared with macrobiota, we wished to explore biogeographical patterns within a river catchment and uncover the major drivers structuring bacterioplankton communities. Water samples collected across the River Thames Basin, UK, covering the transition from headwater tributaries to the lower reaches of the main river channel were characterised using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing. This approach revealed an ecological succession in the bacterial community composition along the river continuum, moving from a community dominated by Bacteroidetes in the headwaters to Actinobacteria-dominated downstream. Location of the sampling point in the river network (measured as the cumulative water channel distance upstream) was found to be the most predictive spatial feature; inferring that ecological processes pertaining to temporal community succession are of prime importance in driving the assemblages of riverine bacterioplankton communities. A decrease in bacterial activity rates and an increase in the abundance of low nucleic acid bacteria relative to high nucleic acid bacteria were found to correspond with these downstream changes in community structure, suggesting corresponding functional changes. Our findings show that bacterial communities across the Thames basin exhibit an ecological succession along the river continuum, and that this is primarily driven by water residence time rather than the physiochemical status of the river

From tension to compression: Asymmetric mechanical behaviour of trabecular bone's organic phase

Trabecular bone is a cellular composite material comprising primarily of mineral and organic phases with their content ratio known to change with age. Therefore, the contribution of bone constituents on bone’s mechanical behaviour, in tension and compression, at varying load levels and with changing porosity (which increases with age) is of great interest, but remains unknown. We investigated the mechanical response of demineralised bone by subjecting a set of bone samples to fully reversed cyclic tension–compression loads with varying magnitudes. We show that the tension to compression response of the organic phase of trabecular bone is asymmetric; it stiffens in tension and undergoes stiffness reduction in compression. Our results indicate that demineralised trabecular bone struts experience inelastic buckling under compression which causes irreversible damage, while irreversible strains due to microcracking are less visible in tension. We also identified that the values of this asymmetric mechanical response is associated to the original bone volume ratio (BV/TV)

Autistic behavior in boys with fragile X syndrome: social approach and HPA-axis dysfunction

The primary goal of this study was to examine environmental and neuroendocrine factors that convey increased risk for elevated autistic behavior in boys with Fragile X syndrome (FXS). This study involves three related analyses: (1) examination of multiple dimensions of social approach behaviors and how they vary over time, (2) investigation of mean levels and modulation of salivary cortisol levels in response to social interaction, and (3) examination of the relationship of social approach and autistic behaviors to salivary cortisol. Poor social approach and elevated baseline and regulation cortisol are discernible traits that distinguish boys with FXS and ASD from boys with FXS only and from typically developing boys. In addition, blunted cortisol change is associated with increased severity of autistic behaviors only within the FXS and ASD group. Boys with FXS and ASD have distinct behavioral and neuroendocrine profiles that differentiate them from those with FXS alone and typically developing boys

Solving parabolic equations on the unit sphere via Laplace transforms and radial basis functions

We propose a method to construct numerical solutions of parabolic equations on the unit sphere. The time discretization uses Laplace transforms and quadrature. The spatial approximation of the solution employs radial basis functions restricted to the sphere. The method allows us to construct high accuracy numerical solutions in parallel. We establish $L_2$ error estimates for smooth and nonsmooth initial data, and describe some numerical experiments.Comment: 26 pages, 1 figur

A Sub-Microscopic Gametocyte Reservoir Can Sustain Malaria Transmission

Novel diagnostic tools, including PCR and high field gradient magnetic fractionation (HFGMF), have improved detection of asexual Plasmodium falciparum parasites and especially infectious gametocytes in human blood. These techniques indicate a significant number of people carry gametocyte densities that fall below the conventional threshold of detection achieved by standard light microscopy (LM).To determine how low-level gametocytemia may affect transmission in present large-scale efforts for P. falciparum control in endemic areas, we developed a refinement of the classical Ross-Macdonald model of malaria transmission by introducing multiple infective compartments to model the potential impact of highly prevalent, low gametocytaemic reservoirs in the population. Models were calibrated using field-based data and several numerical experiments were conducted to assess the effect of high and low gametocytemia on P. falciparum transmission and control. Special consideration was given to the impact of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN), presently considered the most efficient way to prevent transmission, and particularly LLIN coverage similar to goals targeted by the Roll Back Malaria and Global Fund malaria control campaigns. Our analyses indicate that models which include only moderate-to-high gametocytemia (detectable by LM) predict finite eradication times after LLIN introduction. Models that include a low gametocytemia reservoir (requiring PCR or HFGMF detection) predict much more stable, persistent transmission. Our modeled outcomes result in significantly different estimates for the level and duration of control needed to achieve malaria elimination if submicroscopic gametocytes are included.It will be very important to complement current methods of surveillance with enhanced diagnostic techniques to detect asexual parasites and gametocytes to more accurately plan, monitor and guide malaria control programs aimed at eliminating malaria