Prior Event Rate Ratio Adjustment for Hidden Confounding in Observational Studies of Treatment Effectiveness: A Pairwise Cox Likelihood Approach

Observational studies provide a rich source of information for assessing effectiveness of treatment interventions in many situations where it is not ethical or practical to perform randomized controlled trials. However, such studies are prone to bias from hidden (unmeasured) confounding. A promising approach to identifying and reducing the impact of unmeasured confounding is Prior Event Rate Ratio (PERR) adjustment, a quasi-experimental analytic method proposed in the context of electronic medical record database studies. In this paper we present a statistical framework for using a pairwise approach to PERR adjustment that removes bias inherent in the original PERR method. A flexible pairwise Cox likelihood function is derived and used to demonstrate the consistency of the simple and convenient PERR-ALT estimator. We show how to estimate standard errors and confidence intervals for treatment effect estimates based on the observed information, and provide R code to illustrate how to implement the method. Assumptions required for the pairwise approach (as well as PERR) are clarified, and the consequences of model misspecification are explored. Our results confirm the need for researchers to consider carefully the suitability of the method in the context of each problem. We illustrate the application of the method using data from a longitudinal cohort study of enzyme replacement therapy for lysosomal storage disorders.This research was funded by the Medical Research Council [grant number G0902158]. William Henley received additional support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health

Bias and sensitivity analysis when estimating treatment effects from the cox model with omitted covariates

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Omission of relevant covariates can lead to bias when estimating treatment or exposure effects from survival data in both randomized controlled trials and observational studies. This paper presents a general approach to assessing bias when covariates are omitted from the Cox model. The proposed method is applicable to both randomized and non-randomized studies. We distinguish between the effects of three possible sources of bias: omission of a balanced covariate, data censoring and unmeasured confounding. Asymptotic formulae for determining the bias are derived from the large sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the bias formulae and to characterize the influence of the different sources of bias. It is shown that the bias converges to fixed limits as the effect of the omitted covariate increases, irrespective of the degree of confounding. The bias formulae are used as the basis for developing a new method of sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of omitted covariates on estimates of treatment or exposure effects. In simulation studies, the proposed method gave unbiased treatment estimates and confidence intervals with good coverage when the true sensitivity parameters were known. We describe application of the method to a randomized controlled trial and a non-randomized study.We thank Prof. Robin Henderson for providing the leukaemia and deprivation data. We are grateful for the helpful comments of the editor, associate editor and two referees. This research was funded by the Medical Research Council [grant number G0902158]. William Henley and Stuart Logan were supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health

Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker

Pairwise comparison is a popular assessment method either for deriving criteria-weights or for evaluating alternatives according to a given criterion. In real-world applications consistency of the comparisons rarely happens: intransitivity can occur. The aim of the paper is to discuss the relationship between the consistency of the decision maker—described with the error-free property—and the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). The concept of error-free matrix is used to demonstrate that consistency of the PCM is not a sufficient condition of the error-free property of the decision maker. Informed and uninformed decision makers are defined. In the first stage of an assessment method a consistent or near-consistent matrix should be achieved: detecting, measuring and improving consistency are part of any procedure with both types of decision makers. In the second stage additional information are needed to reveal the decision maker’s real preferences. Interactive questioning procedures are recommended to reach that goal

Coastal clustering of HEV; Cornwall, UK.

PublishedBACKGROUND AND AIMS: Autochthonous hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is a porcine zoonosis and increasingly recognized in developed countries. In most cases the route of infection is uncertain. A previous study showed that HEV was associated geographically with pig farms and coastal areas. AIM: The aim of the present research was to study the geographical, environmental and social factors in autochthonous HEV infection. METHODS: Cases of HEV genotype 3 infection and controls were identified from 2047 consecutive patients attending a rapid-access hepatology clinic. For each case/control the following were recorded: distance from home to nearest pig farm, distance from home to coast, rainfall levels during the 8 weeks before presentation, and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: A total of 36 acute hepatitis E cases, 170 age/sex-matched controls and 53 hepatitis controls were identified. The geographical spread of hepatitis E cases was not even when compared with both control groups. Cases were more likely to live within 2000 m of the coast (odds ratio=2.32, 95% confidence interval=1.08-5.19, P=0.03). There was no regional difference in the incidence of cases and controls between west and central Cornwall. There was no difference between cases and controls in terms of distance from the nearest pig farm, socioeconomic status or rainfall during the 8 weeks before disease presentation. CONCLUSION: Cases of HEV infection in Cornwall are associated with coastal residence. The reason for this observation is uncertain, but might be related to recreational exposure to beach areas exposed to HEV-contaminated 'run-off' from pig farms. This hypothesis merits further study.The European Centre for the Environment and Human Health (part of the Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry which is a joint entity of the University of Exeter, the University of Plymouth and the NHS in the South West) is supported by investment from the European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Does \u2018bigger\u2019mean \u2018better\u2019? Pitfalls and shortcuts associated with big data for social research

\u2018Big data is here to stay.\u2019 This key statement has a double value: is an assumption as well as the reason why a theoretical reflection is needed. Furthermore, Big data is something that is gaining visibility and success in social sciences even, overcoming the division between humanities and computer sciences. In this contribution some considerations on the presence and the certain persistence of Big data as a socio-technical assemblage will be outlined. Therefore, the intriguing opportunities for social research linked to such interaction between practices and technological development will be developed. However, despite a promissory rhetoric, fostered by several scholars since the birth of Big data as a labelled concept, some risks are just around the corner. The claims for the methodological power of bigger and bigger datasets, as well as increasing speed in analysis and data collection, are creating a real hype in social research. Peculiar attention is needed in order to avoid some pitfalls. These risks will be analysed for what concerns the validity of the research results \u2018obtained through Big data. After a pars distruens, this contribution will conclude with a pars construens; assuming the previous critiques, a mixed methods research design approach will be described as a general proposal with the objective of stimulating a debate on the integration of Big data in complex research projecting

Genomic-Bioinformatic Analysis of Transcripts Enriched in the Third-Stage Larva of the Parasitic Nematode Ascaris suum

Differential transcription in Ascaris suum was investigated using a genomic-bioinformatic approach. A cDNA archive enriched for molecules in the infective third-stage larva (L3) of A. suum was constructed by suppressive-subtractive hybridization (SSH), and a subset of cDNAs from 3075 clones subjected to microarray analysis using cDNA probes derived from RNA from different developmental stages of A. suum. The cDNAs (n = 498) shown by microarray analysis to be enriched in the L3 were sequenced and subjected to bioinformatic analyses using a semi-automated pipeline (ESTExplorer). Using gene ontology (GO), 235 of these molecules were assigned to ‘biological process’ (n = 68), ‘cellular component’ (n = 50), or ‘molecular function’ (n = 117). Of the 91 clusters assembled, 56 molecules (61.5%) had homologues/orthologues in the free-living nematodes Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae and/or other organisms, whereas 35 (38.5%) had no significant similarity to any sequences available in current gene databases. Transcripts encoding protein kinases, protein phosphatases (and their precursors), and enolases were abundantly represented in the L3 of A. suum, as were molecules involved in cellular processes, such as ubiquitination and proteasome function, gene transcription, protein–protein interactions, and function. In silico analyses inferred the C. elegans orthologues/homologues (n = 50) to be involved in apoptosis and insulin signaling (2%), ATP synthesis (2%), carbon metabolism (6%), fatty acid biosynthesis (2%), gap junction (2%), glucose metabolism (6%), or porphyrin metabolism (2%), although 34 (68%) of them could not be mapped to a specific metabolic pathway. Small numbers of these 50 molecules were predicted to be secreted (10%), anchored (2%), and/or transmembrane (12%) proteins. Functionally, 17 (34%) of them were predicted to be associated with (non-wild-type) RNAi phenotypes in C. elegans, the majority being embryonic lethality (Emb) (13 types; 58.8%), larval arrest (Lva) (23.5%) and larval lethality (Lvl) (47%). A genetic interaction network was predicted for these 17 C. elegans orthologues, revealing highly significant interactions for nine molecules associated with embryonic and larval development (66.9%), information storage and processing (5.1%), cellular processing and signaling (15.2%), metabolism (6.1%), and unknown function (6.7%). The potential roles of these molecules in development are discussed in relation to the known roles of their homologues/orthologues in C. elegans and some other nematodes. The results of the present study provide a basis for future functional genomic studies to elucidate molecular aspects governing larval developmental processes in A. suum and/or the transition to parasitism

Integrated genomics and proteomics define huntingtin CAG length-dependent networks in mice.

To gain insight into how mutant huntingtin (mHtt) CAG repeat length modifies Huntington's disease (HD) pathogenesis, we profiled mRNA in over 600 brain and peripheral tissue samples from HD knock-in mice with increasing CAG repeat lengths. We found repeat length-dependent transcriptional signatures to be prominent in the striatum, less so in cortex, and minimal in the liver. Coexpression network analyses revealed 13 striatal and 5 cortical modules that correlated highly with CAG length and age, and that were preserved in HD models and sometimes in patients. Top striatal modules implicated mHtt CAG length and age in graded impairment in the expression of identity genes for striatal medium spiny neurons and in dysregulation of cyclic AMP signaling, cell death and protocadherin genes. We used proteomics to confirm 790 genes and 5 striatal modules with CAG length-dependent dysregulation at the protein level, and validated 22 striatal module genes as modifiers of mHtt toxicities in vivo

The ADAMTS (A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin motifs) family

The ADAMTS (A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin motifs) enzymes are secreted, multi-domain matrix-associated zinc metalloendopeptidases that have diverse roles in tissue morphogenesis and patho-physiological remodeling, in inflammation and in vascular biology. The human family includes 19 members that can be sub-grouped on the basis of their known substrates, namely the aggrecanases or proteoglycanases (ADAMTS1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 15 and 20), the procollagen N-propeptidases (ADAMTS2, 3 and 14), the cartilage oligomeric matrix protein-cleaving enzymes (ADAMTS7 and 12), the von-Willebrand Factor proteinase (ADAMTS13) and a group of orphan enzymes (ADAMTS6, 10, 16, 17, 18 and 19). Control of the structure and function of the extracellular matrix (ECM) is a central theme of the biology of the ADAMTS, as exemplified by the actions of the procollagen-N-propeptidases in collagen fibril assembly and of the aggrecanases in the cleavage or modification of ECM proteoglycans. Defects in certain family members give rise to inherited genetic disorders, while the aberrant expression or function of others is associated with arthritis, cancer and cardiovascular disease. In particular, ADAMTS4 and 5 have emerged as therapeutic targets in arthritis. Multiple ADAMTSs from different sub-groupings exert either positive or negative effects on tumorigenesis and metastasis, with both metalloproteinase-dependent and -independent actions known to occur. The basic ADAMTS structure comprises a metalloproteinase catalytic domain and a carboxy-terminal ancillary domain, the latter determining substrate specificity and the localization of the protease and its interaction partners; ancillary domains probably also have independent biological functions. Focusing primarily on the aggrecanases and proteoglycanases, this review provides a perspective on the evolution of the ADAMTS family, their links with developmental and disease mechanisms, and key questions for the future

Solitary waves in the Nonlinear Dirac Equation

In the present work, we consider the existence, stability, and dynamics of solitary waves in the nonlinear Dirac equation. We start by introducing the Soler model of self-interacting spinors, and discuss its localized waveforms in one, two, and three spatial dimensions and the equations they satisfy. We present the associated explicit solutions in one dimension and numerically obtain their analogues in higher dimensions. The stability is subsequently discussed from a theoretical perspective and then complemented with numerical computations. Finally, the dynamics of the solutions is explored and compared to its non-relativistic analogue, which is the nonlinear Schr{\"o}dinger equation. A few special topics are also explored, including the discrete variant of the nonlinear Dirac equation and its solitary wave properties, as well as the PT-symmetric variant of the model