A Simple Asymptotic Analysis of Residual-Based Statistics

What s the asymptotic null distribution of a rank-based serial autocorrelation test applied to residuals of an estimated GARCH model?What s the limiting distribution of estimated ACD parameters applied to the residuals of some first-stage modelling procedure?This paper addresses the often occurring situation in econometrics of applying standard statistics to residuals instead of innovations.The paper provides a simple and unified way of calculating the necessary adjustment in the limiting distribution, be it of tests or estimators. On the technical side, we also provide a novel approach to this problem using Le Cam s theory of convergence of experiments (in this paper restricted to Gaussian shift experiments).The resulting formula is simple and the regularity conditions required fairly minimal.Numerous examples show the strength and wide applicability of our approach.statistics;estimation;ranking

A Simple Asymptotic Analysis of Residual-Based Statistics

What s the asymptotic null distribution of a rank-based serial autocorrelation test applied to residuals of an estimated GARCH model?What s the limiting distribution of estimated ACD parameters applied to the residuals of some first-stage modelling procedure?This paper addresses the often occurring situation in econometrics of applying standard statistics to residuals instead of innovations.The paper provides a simple and unified way of calculating the necessary adjustment in the limiting distribution, be it of tests or estimators. On the technical side, we also provide a novel approach to this problem using Le Cam s theory of convergence of experiments (in this paper restricted to Gaussian shift experiments).The resulting formula is simple and the regularity conditions required fairly minimal.Numerous examples show the strength and wide applicability of our approach.

Interacting mindreaders

Could interacting mindreaders be in a position to know things which they would be unable to know if they were manifestly passive observers? This paper argues that they could. Mindreading is sometimes reciprocal: the mindreader's target reciprocates by taking the mindreader as a target for mindreading. The paper explains how such reciprocity can significantly narrow the range of possible interpretations of behaviour where mindreaders are, or appear to be, in a position to interact. A consequence is that revisions and extensions are needed to standard theories of the evidential basis of mindreading. The view also has consequences for understanding how abilities to interact combined with comparatively simple forms of mindreading may explain the emergence, in evolution or development, of sophisticated forms of social cognition

Recurrence of Dupuytren’s contracture: A consensus-based definition

Purpose: One of the major determinants of Dupyutren disease (DD) treatment efficacy is recurrence of the contracture. Unfortunately, lack of agreement in the literature on what constitutes recurrence makes it nearly impossible to compare the multiple treatments alternatives available today. The aim of this study is to bring an unbiased pool of experts to agree upon what would be considered a recurrence of DD after treatment; and from that consensus establish a much-needed definition for DD recurrence. Methods: To reach an expert consensus on the definition of recurrence we used the Delphi method and invited 43 Dupuytren’s research and treatment experts from 10 countries to participate by answering a series of questionnaire rounds. After each round the answers were analyzed and the experts received a feedback report with another questionnaire round to further hone in of the definition. We defined consensus when at least 70% of the experts agreed on a topic. Results: Twenty-one experts agreed to participate in this study. After four consensus rounds, we agreed that DD recurrence should be defined as “more than 20 degrees of contracture recurrence in any treated joint at one year post-treatment compared to six weeks post-treatment”. In addition, “recurrence should be reported individually for every treated joint” and afterwards measurements should be repeated and reported yearly. Conclusion: This study provides the most comprehensive to date definition of what should be considered recurrence of DD. These standardized criteria should allow us to better evaluate the many treatment alternatives

Stochatic Volatility Models with Transaction Time Risk

stochastic processes;volatility;models;transaction costs

Looking Good: Mediatisation and International NGOs

Many international NGOs value those parts of their work that are suited to media representation: campaigning, advocacy, projects that produce the right sort of images. In this article I make three points about this change. First, those parts of the NGO most reliant on media – such as the campaign desk – may be becoming more powerful. This can change the internal dynamics of NGOs. Second, the increasing use of media means that NGOs, like other organisations, hold themselves accountable in new ways. Third, NGOs may appear to look more and more like media organisations. These changes have received relatively little attention in the literature on NGOs, though they reflect a broader set of debates about the role of media in society. Using a case analysis of an international NGO, I suggest that the concept of mediatisation might be a useful way to understand some of the changes observed in the NGO sector

Fossil Carder Bee's nest from the Hominin locality of Taung, South Africa

The Buxton-Norlim Limeworks southwest of Taung, South Africa, is renowned for the discovery of the first Australopithecus africanus fossil, the ‘Taung Child’. The hominin was recovered from a distinctive pink calcrete that contains an abundance of invertebrate ichnofauna belonging to the Coprinisphaera ichnofacies. Here we describe the first fossil bee’s nest, attributed to the ichnogenus Celliforma, from the Plio-Pleistocene of Africa. Petrographic examination of a cell lining revealed the preservation of an intricate organic matrix lined with the calcitic casts of numerous plant trichomes–a nesting behaviour unique to the modern-day carder bees (Anthidiini). The presence of Celliforma considered alongside several other recorded ichnofossils can be indicative of a dry, savannah environment, in agreement with recent work on the palaeoenvironment of Plio-Pleistocene southern Africa. Moreover, the occurrence of ground-nesting bees provides further evidence that the pink calcrete deposits are of pedogenic origin, rather than speleogenic origin as has previously been assumed. This study demonstrates the potential value of insect trace fossils as palaeoenvironmental indicators