The theoretical bases of economic policy: the Schumpeterian perspective

The central role of economic policy in an evolutionary environment is stressed. Based on a Schumpeterian view the theoretical foundations of such a policy are discussed. This investigation leads to the result that not general rules satisfying and maintaining equilibrium are required but a constant watchfulness, reaction, and, if possible, anticipation of what happens in the economy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46109/1/191_2005_Article_BF01237909.pd

Multi-agent modeling and analysis of EV users’ travel willingness based on an integrated causal/statistical/behavioral model

An electric vehicle (EV) centred ecosystem has not yet been formed, the existing limited statistic data are far from enough for the analysis of EV users’ travel and charge behaviors, which however tends to be affected by many certain and uncertain factors. An experimental economics (EE) based simulation method can be used to analyze the behaviors of key participants in a system. However, it is restricted by the system size, experimental site and the number of qualified human participants. Therefore, this method is hard to be adopted for the behavioral analysis of a large number of human participants. In this paper, a new method combining a questionnaire statistics and the EE-based simulation is proposed. The causal relationship is considered in the design of the questionnaires and data extraction, then a multi-agent modeling integration method is introduced in the EE-based simulation, which enables the integration of causal/statistical/behavioral models into the multi-agent framework to reflect the EV users’ travel willingness statistically. The generated multi-agents are used to replace human participants in the EE-based simulation in order to evaluate EV users’ travel demands in different scenarios, and compare the differences of simulated or measured travel behaviors between potential EV users and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle users

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem

Microarray-Based Sketches of the HERV Transcriptome Landscape

Human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) are spread throughout the genome and their long terminal repeats (LTRs) constitute a wide collection of putative regulatory sequences. Phylogenetic similarities and the profusion of integration sites, two inherent characteristics of transposable elements, make it difficult to study individual locus expression in a large-scale approach, and historically apart from some placental and testis-regulated elements, it was generally accepted that HERVs are silent due to epigenetic control. Herein, we have introduced a generic method aiming to optimally characterize individual loci associated with 25-mer probes by minimizing cross-hybridization risks. We therefore set up a microarray dedicated to a collection of 5,573 HERVs that can reasonably be assigned to a unique genomic position. We obtained a first view of the HERV transcriptome by using a composite panel of 40 normal and 39 tumor samples. The experiment showed that almost one third of the HERV repertoire is indeed transcribed. The HERV transcriptome follows tropism rules, is sensitive to the state of differentiation and, unexpectedly, seems not to correlate with the age of the HERV families. The probeset definition within the U3 and U5 regions was used to assign a function to some LTRs (i.e. promoter or polyA) and revealed that (i) autonomous active LTRs are broadly subjected to operational determinism (ii) the cellular gene density is substantially higher in the surrounding environment of active LTRs compared to silent LTRs and (iii) the configuration of neighboring cellular genes differs between active and silent LTRs, showing an approximately 8 kb zone upstream of promoter LTRs characterized by a drastic reduction in sense cellular genes. These gathered observations are discussed in terms of virus/host adaptive strategies, and together with the methods and tools developed for this purpose, this work paves the way for further HERV transcriptome projects

Choice of Tax Base Revisited: Cash Flow vs. Prepayment Approaches to Consumption Taxation

This paper re-examines the issues involved in the design of a direct tax on consumption, an idea that has received a fair degree of acceptance in the transition countries over the past decade (e.g., tax reforms in Croatia and Moldova). First we argue that on the subject of equivalence among a set of taxes, the only meaningful comparison is along the ex-ante concept of equivalence, and not ex-post. The latter as we shall see requires highly implausible, and often arbitrary, choice scenarios. We carry out the analysis in a variety of models starting with the two-period consumption-saving choice under full certainty. However, a good part of the discussion is carried out where the portfolio choice behaviour is embedded in an intertemporal savings model that has been widely discussed in the literature. We then take up more complete (and necessarily more complex) choice situations for examination. Indeed the first of two variations of the above is a model where individuals make work-leisure (for a given skill level) as well as the safe-risky asset choice. The last is of risky human capital choice, where the physical investment is restricted to a single non-risky asset. For the purposes of the paper, the models are very general, and the precise choice context is open to wider interpretations than how they are actually phrased. In spite of our preoccupation with the efficiency aspects, we are interested in other important issues of equity, and those of an administrative nature. But our remarks on the latter fronts are limited to the insight that we directly gain from the analytics