The HIV Modes of Transmission model: a systematic review of its findings and adherence to guidelines

Introduction: The HIV Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the annual fraction of new HIV infections (FNI) acquired by different risk groups. It was designed to guide country-specific HIV prevention policies. To determine if the MOT produced context-specific recommendations, we analyzed MOT results by region and epidemic type, and explored the factors (e.g. data used to estimate parameter inputs, adherence to guidelines) influencing the differences. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and UNAIDS reports, and contacted UNAIDS country directors for published MOT results from MOT inception (2003) to 25 September 2012. Results: We retrieved four journal articles and 20 UNAIDS reports covering 29 countries. In 13 countries, the largest FNI (range 26 to 63%) was acquired by the low-risk group and increased with low-risk population size. The FNI among female sex workers (FSWs) remained low (median 1.3%, range 0.04 to 14.4%), with little variability by region and epidemic type despite variability in sexual behaviour. In India and Thailand, where FSWs play an important role in transmission, the FNI among FSWs was 2 and 4%, respectively. In contrast, the FNI among men who have sex with men (MSM) varied across regions (range 0.1 to 89%) and increased with MSM population size. The FNI among people who inject drugs (PWID, range 0 to 82%) was largest in early-phase epidemics with low overall HIV prevalence. Most MOT studies were conducted and reported as per guidelines but data quality remains an issue. Conclusions: Although countries are generally performing the MOT as per guidelines, there is little variation in the FNI (except among MSM and PWID) by region and epidemic type. Homogeneity in MOT FNI for FSWs, clients and low-risk groups may limit the utility of MOT for guiding country-specific interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics

The road to eliminate mother‐to‐child HIV transmission

Viaplana, AlbertPrimer pla de la plaça Lesseps en obres. En el procés de deconstrucció, una grua alça la biga 1, llosa 6 del costat Besòs de la plaça

PrEP as a feature in the optimal landscape of combination HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION: The new WHO guidelines recommend offering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to people who are at substantial risk of HIV infection. However, where PrEP should be prioritised, and for which population groups, remains an open question. The HIV landscape in sub-Saharan Africa features limited prevention resources, multiple options for achieving cost saving, and epidemic heterogeneity. This paper examines what role PrEP should play in optimal prevention in this complex and dynamic landscape. METHODS: We use a model that was previously developed to capture subnational HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. With this model, we can consider how prevention funds could be distributed across and within countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa to enable optimal HIV prevention (that is, avert the greatest number of infections for the lowest cost). Here, we focus on PrEP to elucidate where, and to whom, it would optimally be offered in portfolios of interventions (alongside voluntary medical male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and behaviour change communication). Over a range of continental expenditure levels, we use our model to explore prevention patterns that incorporate PrEP, exclude PrEP, or implement PrEP according to a fixed incidence threshold. RESULTS: At low-to-moderate levels of total prevention expenditure, we find that the optimal intervention portfolios would include PrEP in only a few regions and primarily for female sex workers (FSW). Prioritisation of PrEP would expand with increasing total expenditure, such that the optimal prevention portfolios would offer PrEP in more subnational regions and increasingly for men who have sex with men (MSM) and the lower incidence general population. The marginal benefit of including PrEP among the available interventions increases with overall expenditure by up to 14% (relative to excluding PrEP). The minimum baseline incidence for the optimal offer of PrEP declines for all population groups as expenditure increases. We find that using a fixed incidence benchmark to guide PrEP decisions would incur considerable losses in impact (up to 7%) compared with an approach that uses PrEP more flexibly in light of prevailing budget conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that, for an optimal distribution of prevention resources, choices of whether to implement PrEP in subnational regions should depend on the scope for impact of other possible interventions, local incidence in population groups, and total resources available. If prevention funding were to become restricted in the future, it may be suboptimal to use PrEP according to a fixed incidence benchmark, and other prevention modalities may be more cost-effective. In contrast, expansions in funding could permit PrEP to be used to its full potential in epidemiologically driven prevention portfolios and thereby enable a more cost-effective HIV response across Africa

Reviewing progress: 7 Year Trends in Characteristics of Adults and Children Enrolled at HIV Care and Treatment Clinics in the United Republic of Tanzania.

To evaluate the on-going scale-up of HIV programs, we assessed trends in patient characteristics at enrolment and ART initiation over 7 years of implementation. Data were from Optimal Models, a prospective open cohort study of HIV-infected (HIV+) adults (>=15 years) and children (<15 years) enrolled from January 2005 to December 2011 at 44 HIV clinics in 3 regions of mainland Tanzania (Kagera, Kigoma, Pwani) and Zanzibar. Comparative statistics for trends in characteristics of patients enrolled in 2005--2007, 2008--2009 and 2010--2011 were examined. Overall 62,801 HIV+ patients were enrolled: 58,102(92.5%) adults, (66.5% female); 4,699(7.5%) children.Among adults, pregnant women enrolment increased: 6.8%, 2005--2007; 12.1%, 2008--2009; 17.2%, 2010--2011; as did entry into care from prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) programs: 6.6%, 2005--2007; 9.5%, 2008--2009; 12.6%, 2010--2011. WHO stage IV at enrolment declined: 27.1%, 2005--2007; 20.2%, 2008--2009; 11.1% 2010--2011. Of the 42.5% and 29.5% with CD4+ data at enrolment and ART initiation respectively, median CD4+ count increased: 210cells/muL, 2005--2007; 262cells/muL, 2008--2009; 266cells/muL 2010--2011; but median CD4+ at ART initiation did not change (148cells/muL overall). Stavudine initiation declined: 84.9%, 2005--2007; 43.1%, 2008--2009; 19.7%, 2010--2011.Among children, median age (years) at enrolment decreased from 6.1(IQR:2.7-10.0) in 2005--2007 to 4.8(IQR:1.9-8.6) in 2008--2009, and 4.1(IQR:1.5-8.1) in 2010--2011 and children <24 months increased from 18.5% to 26.1% and 31.5% respectively. Entry from PMTCT was 7.0%, 2005--2007; 10.7%, 2008--2009; 15.0%, 2010--2011. WHO stage IV at enrolment declined from 22.9%, 2005--2007, to 18.3%, 2008--2009 to 13.9%, 2010--2011. Proportion initiating stavudine was 39.8% 2005--2007; 39.5%, 2008--2009; 26.1%, 2010--2011. Median age at ART initiation also declined significantly. Over time, the proportion of pregnant women and of adults and children enrolled from PMTCT programs increased. There was a decline in adults and children with advanced HIV disease at enrolment and initiation of stavudine. Pediatric age at enrolment and ART initiation declined. Results suggest HIV program maturation from an emergency response

Sexually transmitted infections in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND: Data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Saudi Arabia (SA) and other Islamic countries are limited. This study describes the results of a five-year surveillance for STIs in SA. METHODS: This is a case series descriptive study of all confirmed STIs diagnosed in SA from January, 1995 through December, 1999. RESULTS: A total of 39049 STIs were reported to the Ministry of Health. Reported STIs included nongonococcal urethritis (14557 infections, 37.3%), trichomoniasis (10967 infections, 28.1%), gonococcal urethritis (5547 infections, 14.2%), syphilis (3385 infections, 8.7%), human immunodeficiency virus (2917 infections, 7.5%), genital warts (1382, 3.5%), genital herpes (216 infections, 0.6%), and chancroid (78 infections, 0.2%). The average annual incidence of STIs per 100,000 population for Saudis and non-Saudis, respectively, was as follows: 14.8 and 7.5 for nongonococcal urethritis, 9.4 and 10.4 for trichomoniasis, 5.2 and 4.2 for gonorrhea, 1.7 and 6.4 for syphilis, 0.6 and 8.0 for HIV, 1.4 and 0.7 for genital warts, 0.1 and 0.4 for genital herpes, and 0.1 and 0.1 for chancroid. The incidence of STIs was somewhat steady over the surveillance period except for nongonococcal urethritis which gradually increased. CONCLUSION: Nongonococcal urethritis, trichomoniasis, and gonococcal urethritis were the most commonly reported STIs in SA. Even though the incidence of STIs in SA is limited, appropriate preventive strategies that conform to the Islamic rules and values are essential and should be of highest priority for policymakers because of the potential of such infections to spread particularly among the youth

Access to antiretroviral therapy and survival in eastern Europe and central Asia: a case study in Armenia

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially improves the health of people living with HIV and contributes to preventing new infections. While HIV incidence is decreasing in most regions, the epidemic in eastern Europe continues to rise, as new infections currently outnumber the rate of ART initiation. In this study, we assess ART use in Armenia and its impact on the number of AIDS diagnoses and mortality. METHODS: National surveillance data were obtained from the National Centre for AIDS Prevention, Armenia. Cox-proportional hazard models were used to determine the effect of demographic and clinical risk factors, including access to ART, on AIDS and mortality. RESULTS: Among people diagnosed with HIV since 2005, approximately 40% per year were diagnosed with CD4<200 cells per mL. Overall, 232 people (57.1%) with AIDS or a low CD4 count had not received ART by the end of 2010. Mortality was 34.1% among people living with HIV who did not initiate ART, and 0.3% among people who received ART. Among people diagnosed with HIV from 1996 to 2010, age at diagnosis, no use of ART, likely mode of transmission, likely place of transmission, low baseline CD4 count and no STI diagnosis at last contact are significantly associated with death. DISCUSSION: In Armenia, HIV is frequently diagnosed at a late stage of disease, indicating low testing rates. Of people diagnosed with HIV and in need of ART, a large proportion (approximately 60%) either do not provide consent for treatment, or are who migrants who cannot be located. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, the scale-up of ART has resulted in substantial reductions in mortality among individuals initiating therapy. However, in an era of momentum for treatment as prevention, treatment levels are not at adequate levels for preventing morbidities and mortality in some settings. Particular focus should be placed on key at-risk subgroups.Kylie‐Ann Mallitt, Samvel R Grigoryan, Arshak S Papoyan, Handan C Wand, David P Wilso

Epidemiology of the human immunodeficiency virus in Saudi Arabia; 18-year surveillance results and prevention from an Islamic perspective

BACKGROUND: data on HIV epidemiology and preventive measures in Islamic countries is limited. This study describes the results of 18-year of HIV surveillance in Saudi Arabia (SA) and the preventive measures implemented from an Islamic perspective. METHODS: surveillance for HIV has been underway in SA since 1984. Indications for HIV testing include clinical suspicion, screening of contacts of HIV-infected patients, and routine screening of blood and organ donors, prisoners, intravenous drug users, patients with other sexually transmitted infections, and expatriates pre-employment. This is a case series descriptive study of all confirmed HIV infections diagnosed in SA from 1984 through 2001. RESULTS: a total of 6046 HIV infections were diagnosed, of which 1285 (21.3%) cases were Saudi citizens. Over the 18-year surveillance period the number of HIV infections diagnosed annually among Saudi citizens gradually increased and, over the period 1997–2001, it reached to 84 to 142 cases per year. The number of cases per 100,000 population varied widely between regions with a maximum of 74 cases and a minimum of 2 cases. The infection was most common in the age group 20–40 years (74.6%) and predominantly affected men (71.6%). The modes of transmission among Saudi citizens and expatriates, respectively, were as follows: heterosexual contact, 487 (37.9%) and 1352 (28.4%) cases; blood transfusion, 322 (25.0%) and 186 (3.9%) cases; perinatal transmission, 83 (6.5%) and 19 (0.4%) cases; homosexual contact, 32 (2.5%) and 38 (0.8%) cases; intravenous drug use, 17 (1.3%) and 33 (0.7%) cases; bisexual contact, 10 (0.8%) and 14 (0.3%) cases; unknown, 334 (26.0%) and 3119 (65.5%) cases. The number of HIV infections transmitted by blood or blood products transfusion declined to zero by year 2001 and all such infections occurred due to transfusions administered before 1986. At HIV diagnosis, 4502/6046 (74.5%) patients had no symptoms, 787 (13.0%) patients had non-AIDS defining manifestations, and 757 (12.5%) patients had AIDS. A total of 514/1285 (40%) Saudi patients died by year 2001. CONCLUSIONS: the number of HIV cases in SA is limited with heterosexual contact being the main mode of transmission. From an Islamic perspective, preventive strategies include prevention of non-marital sex and intravenous drug use with encouragement of "safe sex" through legal marriage