Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic, spatial and environmental information

In taxon-wide assessments of threat status many species remain not included owing to lack of data. Here, we present a novel spatial-phylogenetic statistical framework that uses a small set of readily available or derivable characteristics, including phylogenetically imputed body mass and remotely sensed human encroachment, to provide initial baseline predictions of threat status for data-deficient species. Applied to assessed mammal species worldwide, the approach effectively identifies threatened species and predicts the geographical variation in threat. For the 483 data-deficient species, the models predict highly elevated threat, with 69% ‘at-risk’ species in this set, compared with 22% among assessed species. This results in 331 additional potentially threatened mammals, with elevated conservation importance in rodents, bats and shrews, and countries like Colombia, Sulawesi and the Philippines. These findings demonstrate the future potential for combining phylogenies and remotely sensed data with species distributions to identify species and regions of conservation concern

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Sprint interval and sprint continuous training increases circulating CD34+ cells and cardio-respiratory fitness in young healthy women

The improvement of vascular health in the exercising limb can be attained by sprint interval training (SIT). However, the effects on systemic vascular function and on circulating angiogenic cells (CACs) which may contribute to endothelial repair have not been investigated. Additionally, a comparison between SIT and sprint continuous training (SCT) which is less time committing has not been made

Der frühe Beginn der Zwangsstörung

Einleitung: Die vorliegende Untersuchung geht der Fragestellung nach, ob sich eine Zwangsstörung, die bereits im Kindes- bzw. Jugendalter beginnt, von einer Zwangsstörung, die erst im Erwachsenenalter beginnt, hinsichtlich Schweregrad und Symptomatik unterscheidet. Patienten und Methoden: Eine Stichprobe von 370 Patienten mit Zwangsstörung (ICD-10 F42), die sich zwischen 1998 und 2002 stationär in der Psychosomatischen Klinik Windach befanden, wurde in eine Early-Onset-Gruppe (Störungsbeginn ≤15 Jahre) und in eine Late-Onset-Gruppe (Störungsbeginn ≥16 Jahre) aufgeteilt. Die Gruppen wurden über ICD-10-Diagnosen und Y-BOCSWerte verglichen. Ergebnisse: Beim Schweregrad zeigte sich, dass 20,5% der Early-Onset-Gruppe, aber lediglich 8,7% der Late-Onset-Gruppe unter einer «massiven Zwangsstörung» leiden. Bei der Symptomatik zeigte sich, dass die Early-Onset-Gruppe häufiger die Diagnose «Zwangsgedanken und -handlungen gemischt» (76,9%)erhält als die Late-Onset-Gruppe (61,8%). Außerdem nennt die Early-Onset-Gruppe sowohl für die Gegenwart als auch für die Vergangenheit mehr Symptome als die Late-Onset-Gruppe (Gegenwart 8,2 vs. 7,0; Vergangenheit 5,5 vs. 3,9 Symptomgruppen). Weiter ergaben sich inhaltliche Unterschiede der Zwangsgedanken und Zwangshandlungen. Schlussfolgerungen: Early-Onset-Patienten scheinen häufiger von einer massiven Form der Zwangsstörung und einer größeren Symptomvielfalt betroffen zu sein als Late-Onset-Patienten. Ob es sich bei der Zwangsstörung mit Beginn im Kindes- und Jugendalter um einen abgrenzbaren Subtypus handelt, konnte jedoch in dieser Untersuchung nicht eindeutig geklärt werden und bedarf weiterer Forschungen.Introduction: This study investigates if obsessive compulsive disorder with early onset differs in severity and symptomatology from that with late onset. Patients and Methods: A sample of 370 patients with obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD; ICD 10 F42) who received in-patient treatment at the psychosomatic clinic of Windach between 1998 and 2002 were divided into an early-onset group (onset ≤15 years) and a late-onset group (onset ≥16 years). Groups were compared regarding ICD-10 diagnosis and Y-BOCS scores. Results: Considering severity of the disorder 20.5% of the early-onset group but merely 8.7% of the late-onset group suffered from an extreme form of OCD. With respect to symptomatology, the early-onset group was diagnosed with ‘obsessions and compulsions, mixed’ (76.9%) more often than the lateonset group (61.8%). Also, the early-onset group reported a wider variety of symptoms both for the present and for the past than the late-onset group (present 8,2 vs 7.0; past 5.5 vs 3.9 types of symptoms). There were also differences in the content of rumination and types of compulsive rituals. Conclusions: Patients with early-onset OCD seem to be more frequently affected by an extreme form of OCD and to experience a higher variety of symptoms than patients with late-onset OCD. If early-onset OCD can be considered a distinct subtype could not be answered unequivocally by the results of this study. This question needs additional research

Star forming dwarf galaxies

Star forming dwarf galaxies (SFDGs) have a high gas content and low metallicities, reminiscent of the basic entities in hierarchical galaxy formation scenarios. In the young universe they probably also played a major role in the cosmic reionization. Their abundant presence in the local volume and their youthful character make them ideal objects for detailed studies of the initial stellar mass function (IMF), fundamental star formation processes and its feedback to the interstellar medium. Occasionally we witness SFDGs involved in extreme starbursts, giving rise to strongly elevated production of super star clusters and global superwinds, mechanisms yet to be explored in more detail. SFDGs is the initial state of all dwarf galaxies and the relation to the environment provides us with a key to how different types of dwarf galaxies are emerging. In this review we will put the emphasis on the exotic starburst phase, as it seems less important for present day galaxy evolution but perhaps fundamental in the initial phase of galaxy formation.Comment: To appear in JENAM Symposium "Dwarf Galaxies: Keys to Galaxy Formation and Evolution", P. Papaderos, G. Hensler, S. Recchi (eds.). Lisbon, September 2010, Springer Verlag, in pres

X-Ray Spectroscopy of Stars

(abridged) Non-degenerate stars of essentially all spectral classes are soft X-ray sources. Low-mass stars on the cooler part of the main sequence and their pre-main sequence predecessors define the dominant stellar population in the galaxy by number. Their X-ray spectra are reminiscent, in the broadest sense, of X-ray spectra from the solar corona. X-ray emission from cool stars is indeed ascribed to magnetically trapped hot gas analogous to the solar coronal plasma. Coronal structure, its thermal stratification and geometric extent can be interpreted based on various spectral diagnostics. New features have been identified in pre-main sequence stars; some of these may be related to accretion shocks on the stellar surface, fluorescence on circumstellar disks due to X-ray irradiation, or shock heating in stellar outflows. Massive, hot stars clearly dominate the interaction with the galactic interstellar medium: they are the main sources of ionizing radiation, mechanical energy and chemical enrichment in galaxies. High-energy emission permits to probe some of the most important processes at work in these stars, and put constraints on their most peculiar feature: the stellar wind. Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of cool and hot stars through the study of X-ray spectra, in particular high-resolution spectra now available from XMM-Newton and Chandra. We address issues related to coronal structure, flares, the composition of coronal plasma, X-ray production in accretion streams and outflows, X-rays from single OB-type stars, massive binaries, magnetic hot objects and evolved WR stars.Comment: accepted for Astron. Astrophys. Rev., 98 journal pages, 30 figures (partly multiple); some corrections made after proof stag

Dust-free quasars in the early Universe

The most distant quasars known, at redshifts z=6, generally have properties indistinguishable from those of lower-redshift quasars in the rest-frame ultraviolet/optical and X-ray bands. This puzzling result suggests that these distant quasars are evolved objects even though the Universe was only seven per cent of its current age at these redshifts. Recently one z=6 quasar was shown not to have any detectable emission from hot dust, but it was unclear whether that indicated different hot-dust properties at high redshift or if it is simply an outlier. Here we report the discovery of a second quasar without hot-dust emission in a sample of 21 z=6 quasars. Such apparently hot-dust-free quasars have no counterparts at low redshift. Moreover, we demonstrate that the hot-dust abundance in the 21 quasars builds up in tandem with the growth of the central black hole, whereas at low redshift it is almost independent of the black hole mass. Thus z=6 quasars are indeed at an early evolutionary stage, with rapid mass accretion and dust formation. The two hot-dust-free quasars are likely to be first-generation quasars born in dust-free environments and are too young to have formed a detectable amount of hot dust around them.Comment: To be published in Nature on the 18 March 2010

Binary and Millisecond Pulsars at the New Millennium

We review the properties and applications of binary and millisecond pulsars. Our knowledge of these exciting objects has greatly increased in recent years, mainly due to successful surveys which have brought the known pulsar population to over 1300. There are now 56 binary and millisecond pulsars in the Galactic disk and a further 47 in globular clusters. This review is concerned primarily with the results and spin-offs from these surveys which are of particular interest to the relativity community.Comment: 59 pages, 26 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org

Detailed Inspection of Metal Implants

Detailed visual inspection of metal hips is the first step in retrieval analysis. In this study a systematic visual inspection protocol was developed to quantify bearing surface changes and their associations with material loss was investigated. Simple and multiple linear regression models found that moderate surface scratching, discolouration, haziness and the size of visible wear scars were all significantly associated with material loss (R2 = 5% - 73%, p<0.05). Visual inspection is not a substitute for measurement of material loss but an understanding of bearing surface changes may offer unique clues as to the mechanisms of failure of retrieved hips