Assimilation of 3D radar reflectivities with an ensemble Kalman filter on the convective scale

An ensemble data assimilation system for 3D radar reflectivity data is introduced for the convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling (COSMO) based on the Kilometre-scale ENsemble Data Assimilation system (KENDA), developed by Deutscher Wetterdienst and its partners. KENDA provides a state-of-the-art ensemble data assimilation system on the convective scale for operational data assimilation and forecasting based on the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). In this study, the Efficient Modular VOlume RADar Operator is applied for the assimilation of radar reflectivity data to improve short-term predictions of precipitation. Both deterministic and ensemble forecasts have been carried out. A case-study shows that the assimilation of 3D radar reflectivity data clearly improves precipitation location in the analysis and significantly improves forecasts for lead times up to 4 h, as quantified by the Brier Score and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score. The influence of different update rates on the noise in terms of surface pressure tendencies and on the forecast quality in general is investigated. The results suggest that, while high update rates produce better analyses, forecasts with lead times of above 1 h benefit from less frequent updates. For a period of seven consecutive days, assimilation of radar reflectivity based on the LETKF is compared to that of DWD's current operational radar assimilation scheme based on latent heat nudging (LHN). It is found that the LETKF competes with LHN, although it is still in an experimental phase

Generation of an Object-based Nowcasting Ensemble

Presentación realizada en la 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Development of a probabilistic precipitation-nowcastingapproach at DWD

Presentación realizada en la 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Holographic Roberge-Weiss Transitions II: Defect Theories and the Sakai-Sugimoto Model

We extend the work of Aarts et al., including an imaginary chemical potential for quark number into the Sakai-Sugimoto model and codimension k defect theories. The phase diagram of these models are a function of three parameters, the temperature, chemical potential and the asymptotic separation of the flavour branes, related to a mass for the quarks in the boundary theories. We compute the phase diagrams and the pressure due to the flavours of the theories as a function of these parameters and show that there are Roberge-Weiss transitions in the high temperature phases, chiral symmetry restored for the Sakai-Sugimoto model and deconfined for the defect models, while at low temperatures there are no Roberge-Weiss transitions. In all the models we consider the transitions between low and high temperature phases are first order, hence the points where they meet the Roberge-Weiss lines are triple points. The pressure for the defect theories scales in the way we expect from dimensional analysis while the Sakai-Sugimoto model exhibits unusual scaling. We show that the models we consider are analytic in \mu^2 when \mu^2 is small.Comment: 39 pages, 12 figures. references added, Sakai-Sugimoto section revised, version to appear in JHE

Multicentre evaluation of MRI variability in the quantification of infarct size in experimental focal cerebral ischaemia

Ischaemic stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the developed world. Despite that considerable advances in experimental research enabled understanding of the pathophysiology of the disease and identified hundreds of potential neuroprotective drugs for treatment, no such drug has shown efficacy in humans. The failure in the translation from bench to bedside has been partially attributed to the poor quality and rigour of animal studies. Recently, it has been suggested that multicentre animal studies imitating the design of randomised clinical trials could improve the translation of experimental research. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could be pivotal in such studies due to its non-invasive nature and its high sensitivity to ischaemic lesions, but its accuracy and concordance across centres has not yet been evaluated. This thesis focussed on the use of MRI for the assessment of late infarct size, the primary outcome used in stroke models. Initially, a systematic review revealed that a plethora of imaging protocols and data analysis methods are used for this purpose. Using meta-analysis techniques, it was determined that T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) was best correlated with gold standard histology for the measurement of infarctbased treatment effects. Then, geometric accuracy in six different preclinical MRI scanners was assessed using structural phantoms and automated data analysis tools developed in-house. It was found that geometric accuracy varies between scanners, particularly when centre-specific T2WI protocols are used instead of a standardised protocol, though longitudinal stability over six months is high. Finally, a simulation study suggested that the measured geometric errors and the different protocols are sufficient to render infarct volumes and related group comparisons across centres incomparable. The variability increases when both factors are taken into account and when infarct volume is expressed as a relative estimate. Data in this study were analysed using a custom-made semi-automated tool that was faster and more reliable in repeated analyses than manual analysis. Findings of this thesis support the implementation of standardised methods for the assessment and optimisation of geometric accuracy in MRI scanners, as well as image acquisition and analysis of in vivo data for the measurement of infarct size in multicentre animal studies. Tools and techniques developed as part of the thesis show great promise in the analysis of phantom and in vivo data and could be a step towards this endeavour

The influence of broken cloudiness on cloud top height retrievals using nadir observations of backscattered solar radiation in the oxygen A-band

The paper is devoted to theoretical studies of the influence of cloud inhomogeneities on cloud top height (CTH) retrievals based on top-of-atmosphere nadir reflectance observations in the oxygen A-band. A three-demensional (3D) Monte Carlo code is used to simulate highly resolved spectral measurements in the oxygen A-band. These synthetic radiances are used as input for the retrieval code SACURA based on asymptotic radiative transfer theory and the independent pixel approximation. The results show that the effect of cloud inhomogeneity on the derived CTHs is small. While we found considerable 3D effects in the reflectance of more than 30% compared to the independent column approximation, the spectral dependence of the difference was small. As SACURA is mainly based on spectral ratios, the retrieval results are hardly affected by the large absolute deviations. In consequence, SACURA is capable to retrieve CTHs with an accuracy of better than 1.5km for overcast and also most partially cloudy cases

Is cribra orbitalia a sign of anemia ?

International audienc

Is Cribra orbitalia synonymous with anemia? Analysis and interpretation of cranial pathology in Sudan

Cribra orbitalia is a porotic or sieve-like lesion in the bony orbital roof Its cause has been the object of research and discussion since the end of the 19th century. Since about 1960, most scientists have started to agree on the hypothesis that the lesion is a result of hypertrophy of the red bone marrow, and therefore is proof of anemia. However, recent investigations showed that in some cases, the histologic bone structure does not support the diagnosis of anemia. The status of cribra orbitalia as an indicator then becomes uncertain. We carried out a histologic examination of thin-ground sections in polarized light to clarify the possible sources of orbital roof lesions in a Nubian population from Missiminia, northern Sudan (n = 333). In at least 56.5% of cribra orbitalia cases, there were no histologic features indicating changes due to anemia. Signs of other pathological conditions, such as inflammation or osteoporosis, as well as pseudopathological cases, were found. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Is cribra orbitalia a sign of anemia ?

International audienc