A general theory for preferential sampling in environmental networks

This is the final version. Available from the Institute of Mathematical Statistics via the DOI in this recordThis paper presents a general model framework for detecting the preferential sampling of environmental monitors recording an environmental process across space and/or time. This is achieved by considering the joint distribution of an environmental process with a site–selection process that considers where and when sites are placed to measure the process. The environmental process may be spatial, temporal or spatio–temporal in nature. By sharing random effects between the two processes, the joint model is able to establish whether site placement was stochastically dependent of the environmental process under study. Furthermore, if stochastic dependence is identified between the two processes, then inferences about the probability distribution of the spatio–temporal process will change, as will predictions made of the process across space and time. The embedding into a spatio–temporal framework also allows for the modelling of the dynamic site—selection process itself. Real–world factors affecting both the size and location of the network can be easily modelled and quantified. Depending upon the choice of population of locations to consider for selection across space and time under the site– selection process, different insights about the precise nature of preferential sampling can be obtained. The general framework developed in the paper is designed to be easily and quickly fit using the R-INLA package. We apply this framework to a case study involving particulate air pollution over the UK where a major reduction in the size of a monitoring network through time occurred. It is demonstrated that a significant response–biased reduction in the air quality monitoring network occurred, namely the relocation of monitoring sites to locations with the highest pollution levels, and the routine removal of sites at locations with the lowest. We also show that the network was consistently unrepresentative of the levels of particulate matter seen across much of GB throughout the operating life of the network. Finally we show that this may have led to a severe over-reporting of the population–average exposure levels experienced across GB. This could have great impacts on estimates of the health effects of black smoke levels.Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canad

Metabolomics to unveil and understand phenotypic diversity between pathogen populations

Visceral leishmaniasis is caused by a parasite called Leishmania donovani, which every year infects about half a million people and claims several thousand lives. Existing treatments are now becoming less effective due to the emergence of drug resistance. Improving our understanding of the mechanisms used by the parasite to adapt to drugs and achieve resistance is crucial for developing future treatment strategies. Unfortunately, the biological mechanism whereby Leishmania acquires drug resistance is poorly understood. Recent years have brought new technologies with the potential to increase greatly our understanding of drug resistance mechanisms. The latest mass spectrometry techniques allow the metabolome of parasites to be studied rapidly and in great detail. We have applied this approach to determine the metabolome of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant parasites isolated from patients with leishmaniasis. The data show that there are wholesale differences between the isolates and that the membrane composition has been drastically modified in drug-resistant parasites compared with drug-sensitive parasites. Our findings demonstrate that untargeted metabolomics has great potential to identify major metabolic differences between closely related parasite strains and thus should find many applications in distinguishing parasite phenotypes of clinical relevance

Stress in nurses : stress-related affect and its determinants examined over the nursing day

Peer reviewedPostprin

Label-free cell cycle analysis for high-throughput imaging flow cytometry

Imaging flow cytometry combines the high-throughput capabilities of conventional flow cytometry with single-cell imaging. Here we demonstrate label-free prediction of DNA content and quantification of the mitotic cell cycle phases by applying supervised machine learning to morphological features extracted from brightfield and the typically ignored darkfield images of cells from an imaging flow cytometer. This method facilitates non-destructive monitoring of cells avoiding potentially confounding effects of fluorescent stains while maximizing available fluorescence channels. The method is effective in cell cycle analysis for mammalian cells, both fixed and live, and accurately assesses the impact of a cell cycle mitotic phase blocking agent. As the same method is effective in predicting the DNA content of fission yeast, it is likely to have a broad application to other cell types

The SNAPSHOT study protocol : SNAcking, Physical activity, Self-regulation, and Heart rate Over Time

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Worldwide Esophageal Cancer Collaboration : clinical staging data

Peer reviewe

A study of the Z production cross-section in pp collisions at √s = 7 using tau final states

A measurement of the inclusive Z → ττ cross-section in pp collisions at √s =7 is presented based on a dataset of 1.0 fb[superscript −1] collected by the LHCb detector. Candidates for Z → τ τ decays are identified through reconstructed final states with two muons, a muon and an electron, a muon and a hadron, or an electron and a hadron. The production cross-section for Z bosons, with invariant mass between 60 and 120 GeV/c[superscript 2], which decay to τ leptons with transverse momenta greater than 20 GeV/c and pseudorapidities between 2.0 and 4.5, is measured to be σ[subscript pp]→Z→ττ = 71.4 ± 3.5 ± 2.8 ± 2.5 pb; the first uncertainty is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The ratio of the cross-sections for Z → τ τ to Z → μμ is determined to be 0.93 ± 0.09, where the uncertainty is the combination of statistical, systematic, and luminosity uncertainties of the two measurements.National Science Foundation (U.S.

A critical review of smaller state diplomacy

In The Peloponnesian War, Thucydides (1972: 402) highlights the effects of the general, overall weakness of smaller states vis-à-vis larger, more powerful ones in a key passage, where the Athenians remind the Melians that: “… since you know as well as we do that, as the world goes, right is only in question between equals in power. Meanwhile, the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” Concerns about the vulnerability of small, weak, isolated states have echoed throughout history: from Thucydides, through the review by Machiavelli (1985) of the risks of inviting great powers to intervene in domestic affairs, through 20th century US-led contemporary political science (Vital, 1971; Handel, 1990) and Commonwealth led scholarship (Commonwealth Secretariat, 1985). In the context of 20th century ‘Balkanization’, the small state could also prove unstable, even hostile and uncooperative, a situation tempting enough to invite the intrusion of more powerful neighbours: a combination, according to Brzezinski (1997: 123-124) of a power vacuum and a corollary power suction2: in the outcome, if the small state is ‘absorbed’, it would be its fault, and its destiny, in the grand scheme of things. In an excellent review of small states in the context of the global politics of development, Payne (2004: 623, 634) concludes that “vulnerabilities rather than opportunities are the most striking consequence of smallness”. It has been recently claimed that, since they cannot defend or represent themselves adequately, small states “lack real independence, which makes them suboptimal participants in the international system” (Hagalin, 2005: 1). There is however, a less notable and acknowledged but more extraordinary strand of argumentation that considers ‘the power of powerlessness’, and the ability of small states to exploit their smaller size in a variety of ways in order to achieve their intended, even if unlikely, policy outcomes. The pursuance of smaller state goals becomes paradoxically acceptable and achievable precisely because such smaller states do not have the power to leverage disputants or pursue their own agenda. A case in point concerns the smallest state of all, the Vatican, whose powers are both unique and ambiguous, but certainly not insignificant (The Economist, 2007). Smaller states have “punched above their weight” (e.g. Edis, 1991); and, intermittently, political scientists confront their “amazing intractability” (e.g. Suhrke, 1973: 508). Henry Kissinger (1982: 172) referred to this stance, with obvious contempt, as “the tyranny of the weak”3. This paper seeks a safe passage through these two, equally reductionist, propositions. It deliberately focuses first on a comparative case analysis of two, distinct ‘small state-big state’ contests drawn from the 1970s, seeking to infer and tease out the conditions that enable smaller ‘Lilliputian’ states (whether often or rarely) to beat their respective Goliaths. The discussion is then taken forward to examine whether similar tactics can work in relation to contemporary concerns with environmental vulnerability, with a focus on two other, small island states. Before that, the semiotics of ‘the small state’ need to be explored, since they are suggestive of the perceptions and expectations that are harboured by decision makers at home and abroad and which tend towards the self-fulfilling prophecy.peer-reviewe

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Clinical trials in a remote Aboriginal setting: lessons from the BOABS smoking cessation study

Background: There is limited evidence regarding the best approaches to helping Indigenous Australians to stop smoking. The composite analysis of the only two smoking cessation randomised controlled trials (RCTs)investigating this suggests that one-on-one extra support delivered by and provided to Indigenous Australians in a primary health care setting appears to be more effective than usual care in encouraging smoking cessation. This paper describes the lessons learnt from one of these studies, the Be Our Ally Beat Smoking (BOABS) Study, and how to develop and implement an integrated smoking cessation program. Methods: Qualitative study using data collected from multiple documentary sources related to the BOABS Study. As the project neared completion the research team participated in four workshops to review and conduct thematic analyses of these documents. Results: Challenges we encountered during the relatively complex BOABS Study included recruiting sufficient number of participants; managing the project in two distant locations and ensuring high quality work across both sites; providing appropriate training and support to Aboriginal researchers; significant staff absences, staff shortages and high workforce turnover; determining where and how the project fitted in the clinics and consequent siloing of the Aboriginal researchers relating to the requirements of RCTs; resistance to change, and maintaining organisational commitment and priority for the project.The results of this study also demonstrated the importance of local Aboriginal ownership, commitment, participation and control. This included knowledge of local communities, the flexibility to adapt interventions to local settings and circumstances, and taking sufficient time to allow this to occur. Conclusions: The keys to the success of the BOABS Study were local development, ownership and participation, worker professional development and support, and operating within a framework of cultural safety. There were difficulties associated with the BOABS Study being an RCT, and many of these are shared with stand-alone programs. Interventions targeted at particular health problems are best integrated with usual primary health care. Research to investigate complex interventions in Indigenous health should not be limited to randomised clinical trials and funding needs to reflect the additional, but necessary, cost of providing for local control of planning and implementation