En vurdering av hvordan fundamentale faktorer påvirker elektrisitetsprisen - Kvantilregresjonsanalyse av NordPool

I foreliggende oppgave er det undersøkt hvordan ulike fundamentale faktorer påvirker elektrisitetsprisen på NordPool. Ved å benytte kvantilregresjon har vi studert påvirkningen over hele prisdistribusjonene. Etter dereguleringen av det nordiske kraftmarkedet kjennetegnes elektrisitetsprisen av store variasjoner, noe som har medført økt finansiell risiko. En grundig analyse av fundamentale faktorer vil gi en bedre forståelse av de nevnte prisbevegelsene, samt økt innsikt i hvordan forandring i faktorene påvirker prisen. Bidraget fra denne oppgaven er en utvidet fundamentalanalyse av elektrisitetsprisen på NordPool, da tidligere forskning med denne tilnærmingen har vært fokusert på andre kraftmarkeder. Vi har i tillegg valgt å inkludere flere nye variabler, som så vidt det er oss bekjent, ikke tidligere er analysert i denne sammenhengen. På grunn av det varierende etterspørselsmønsteret til elektrisitet har de ulike timene i døgnet forskjellige karakteristikker. Det ble derfor valgt å foreta analyser på noen av de mest særegne timeintervallene. Oppgaven har sett på off peak-perioden, kl. 04.00, de to peak-periodene kl. 09.00 og 18.00, samt daglig gjennomsnitt. Gjennom autoregresjonsanalyser ble det påvist avhengighet mellom dagens og tidligere elektrisitetspriser. Forklaringsgradene til modellene var meget høye, noe som blant annet indikerer en snittreverterende (mean reverting) oppførsel. Basert på funnene i disse analysene ble det valgt å inkludere to variabler i den fundamentale prismodellen som skal fange opp disse egenskapene; gårsdagens pris og gjennomsnittsprisen den siste uken. Fra kvantilregresjonsanalysene konkluderes det med at elastisitetene for de ulike fundamentale faktorene varierer over prisdistribusjonen til daglige og intra-daglige priser. Resultatene viste at faktorene basert på tidligere priser, sammen med konsum, hadde høyest forklaringsgrad. Dette gjenspeiler elektrisitetsprisens egenskaper som autoregressiv og snittreverterende. Analysene viste at det eksisterer individuelle forskjeller når det gjelder hvilke faktorer som er signifikante for hver enkelt periode, samt styrken på forklaringsgradene. Dette understreker behovet for modeller som er tilpasset de individuelle prisenes egenskaper. Det overraskende fra kvantilregresjonen var forklaringsgradene til faktorene som tar hensyn til satsningen på fornybar energiproduksjon. Variablene for elsertifikatprisen og CO2-kvoteprisen viste seg å ha svært små elastisiteter og lave signifikansnivå, og indikerer dermed at disse ikke er determinanter av elektrisitetsprisen i det nordiske markedet. Avslutningsvis ble det gjennomført en scenarioanalyse basert på funnene i analysedelen. Hensikten var her å undersøke hvordan satsningen på fornybar kraftproduksjon påvirker elektrisitetsprisen, da spesielt vind. Resultatene viste en svakt nedadgående trend i elektrisitetsprisen, men ingen overbevisende effekt av økt andel vindkraftproduksjon. Likevel, en større andel fornybar energiproduksjon vil medføre høyere volatilitet for elektrisitetsprisene. Tilsvarende analyse viste at økt volatilitet vil drive elektrisitetsprisen i de øvre kvantilene betraktelig opp, mens prisen i de nedre kvantilene vil reduseres

An Automated Algorithm for Identifying and Tracking Transverse Waves in Solar Images

Recent instrumentation has demonstrated that the solar atmosphere supports omnipresent transverse waves, which could play a key role in energizing the solar corona. Large-scale studies are required in order to build up an understanding of the general properties of these transverse waves. To help facilitate this, we present an automated algorithm for identifying and tracking features in solar images and extracting the wave properties of any observed transverse oscillations. We test and calibrate our algorithm using a set of synthetic data, which includes noise and rotational effects. The results indicate an accuracy of 1%–2% for displacement amplitudes and 4%–10% for wave periods and velocity amplitudes. We also apply the algorithm to data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and find good agreement with previous studies. Of note, we find that 35%–41% of the observed plumes exhibit multiple wave signatures, which indicates either the superposition of waves or multiple independent wave packets observed at different times within a single structure. The automated methods described in this paper represent a significant improvement on the speed and quality of direct measurements of transverse waves within the solar atmosphere. This algorithm unlocks a wide range of statistical studies that were previously impractical

Evaluating The Elder Justice Act: Challenges In Funding, Implementation, And Coalition Dynamics

The Elder Justice Act (EJA) was a significant policy that passed in 2010 as part of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The goal of the EJA was to provide public health and social service programs for preventing, detecting, and treating elder abuse. Due to limited federal discretionary spending, most programs authorized under the Elder Justice Act have not been fully funded or implemented as intended. The paper seeks to answer this research question: What has caused the limited funding and implementation of the Elder Justice Act, and what role have coalitions played? It analyzes the factors that have contributed to the lack of funding and implementation of the EJA, and it reviews existing literature on the topic to contribute to the analysis. The EJA is evaluated based on policy evaluation criteria such as effectiveness, efficiency, adequacy, equity, responsiveness, and appropriateness to understand what the EJA accomplished. The Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) is also applied to better understand the context and influences affecting the EJA, particularly the long-term interactions between coalition groups surrounding federal protection for the elderly. The ACF is used to understand why policymakers may have taken the path they did as opposed to others. The paper will conclude with my recommendations for improving the EJA by addressing the gaps in funding, implementation, and coordination. These recommendations can help elder justice advocacy groups by giving them more information and solutions to help solve this problem. They can also help policymakers create more effective protections for the elderly, ensuring that vulnerable populations receive the care and protection they need

Elemental Fractionation of the Solar Wind as Indicators of Coronal Source Regions and Physical Processes.

Heavy ions in the solar wind record the history of physical events occurring to a given parcel of plasma during its escape from the solar atmosphere. Heating, acceleration, and interactions with waves, particles, and magnetic fields all imprint their signatures in the elemental composition and ionic charge states of heavy ions which carry the information unchanged from a few solar radii all the way to the edge of the heliosphere. Therefore by studying heavy ions in the solar wind near-Earth, we are able to peer back into the corona and gain valuable insight concerning physical processes within a region currently inaccessible to direct satellite exploration. Understanding how mass and energy is released from the Sun and transported into interplanetary space is of increasing importance to our modern society which depends on space-based technology for global navigation and communications. In this work we explore the source regions, release and acceleration mechanisms, and elemental fractionation of the slow solar wind. In particular we seek to answer the following questions: (1) “How much plasma, if any, do the largest coronal loops contribute to the solar wind?”, (2) “Where and how does closed filed plasma escape into the solar wind and become accelerated?”, and (3) “What are the physical conditions and time scales required for gravitational settling?”. Towards these ends, we delve into over 20 years of solar wind data from two nearly identical Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) instruments which flew onboard the Ulysses (1990 – 2009) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE; 1998 - present) spacecraft. We utilize novel analysis methods and discover the existence of a new class of solar wind events which we call “heavy ion dropouts”. These dropouts have distinctive, mass-fractionated elemental composition indicative of specific coronal conditions and probable source regions. By analyzing the temporal and spatial variability of heavy ion dropouts and comparing our observations to basic simulations of the solar corona, we are able to provide fresh insight which may be used to constrain, validate, and refine prevailing solar wind theories.PhDAtmospheric, Oceanic and Space SciencesUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113476/1/mjweberg_1.pd

Experimental study and CFD simulation of water coning phenomenon in perforated geometry

The focus of this thesis is to further examine the water coning phenomenon in annular geometry in a horizontal well completion. This phenomenon is of particular interest to the oil & gas industry, as it may restrict production rates, and lead to reduced production effectiveness due to water carry-over. An overview of industry experience and a review of academic research conducted on the topic of water coning phenomenon is provided. The study has been carried out by conducting experiments of flow inside annular geometry of a horizontal well in a laboratory setup and by utilizing CFD simulations. The experimental findings provided valuable inputs for the CFD simulations, and the CFD simulations may in turn become a useful tool for testing ICD designs. Furthermore, this study provides a detailed analysis and comparison of analytical methods that can be utilized to predict critical flow rates. The experiments were conducted using a simple, yet effective, setup with a symmetric inflow of the liquids. It was based on a 2D-principle giving good visualization of the experiments. The main emphasis was placed on the single orifice geometry, but geometries with two orifices were also used during the experiments. Two different oils were used: Nexbase 3080 due to its similarity to the North Sea oil regarding viscosity, andMarcol 52 to have an oil with a viscosity between those of water and Nexbase. A total 766 experimental runs were conducted. From these experiments the effect of water coning was studied in regard to the size of the annulus gap ±, the flow rate, the type of oil, different plate geometries with one and two outlet orifices, and the distance between the water level and the orifice. The results indicated that water coning features are highly dependent on and all of the parameters mentioned above. High flow rates and a short distance between the initial water level and the orifice, both give a high tendency of water coning and large water cuts. However, large annulus gaps lower the tendency of water coning. Nexbase oil with its high viscosity demonstrated a larger tendency to induce water coning than the less viscous Marcol oil. Low flow rates, large annulus gaps and large distances between the water level and the orificewillminimize the effect of water coning. A powerful and versatile CFD package that is well equipped to simulate coning phenomenon, ANSYS-CFX commercial code was utilized for running simulations. A total of 210 simulations were set up and conducted, both in 2D and 3D. For this research study, it was important to conduct a large number of simulations in order to correctly observe trends when changing the input variables. The simulations were all planned to ensure that an acceptable step size in variable changes was utilized. In this manner it was possible to stay within a reasonable number of simulations while still being able to uncover trends fromflow behaviour. The CFD-simulations conducted indicated that the two-dimensional modeling approach was effective to study water coning phenomenon, in that the simulations displayed the same underlying trends observed in the experiments, and required a relatively short amount of computational time. The main focus of the analytical aspect of this study is directed towards a pressure balance analysis. However, dimensional analysis was utilized to forge a correlation for the critical flow rate. The comparisons of the different analyticalmethods indicate that the dimensional analysis approachmay provide valuable insight to critical flow rates. Comparisons with experimental data suggest that the analytical expression derived from pressure balances leads to a largely varying magnitude of discrepancy depending on the case in question

Finite element model updating on the existing Grenland Bridge

Denne avhandlingen utforsker optimaliseringen av modelloppdatering ved bruk av Abaqus kombinert med operasjonell modalanalyse. Hovedmålet er å forstå hvordan varierende sett med parametere og forskjellige forhold mellom antall parametere og outputs påvirker nøyaktigheten og konvergensen i modelloppdateringsprosessen. Gjennom omfattende analyser ble to ulike parameterkonfigurasjoner evaluert. En av disse konfigurasjonene viste seg å ha overlegen ytelse i å redusere objektiv funksjonen og øke MMI verdiene. Denne konfigurasjonen, med et parameter-til-outputforhold på 2,00, ga den mest nøyaktige tilpasningen til estimerte naturlige frekvenser og modefasonger. Detaljerte analyser viste betydelige forbedringer i samsvaret mellom modellen og observerte dynamiske egenskaper, som er reflektert i reduserte frekvensfeil og økte MAC- og MMI-verdier. Imidlertid viste visse moder, spesielt horisontale og torsjonsmoder, negative endringer etter oppdateringen, noe som tyder på at disse ble undertrykt av vertikale moder. Den oppdaterte modellens dynamiske respons på turbulensbelastninger fra vind ble også undersøkt, og det ble påvist økte deformasjoner og bøyemomenter, særlig i kritiske seksjoner som midtspennet og ved innspent opplager. Disse endringene var knyttet til variasjoner i de naturlige frekvensene til de lavere modene, noe som er avgjørende i responsen på dynamiske vindlaster. Funnene understreker den kritiske rollen til parameterutvalg og forholdet mellom antall parametere og outputs for å forbedre modellens nøyaktighet. Ved å forbedre de dynamiske egenskapene gir den oppdaterte modellen et mer pålitelig verktøy for strukturell analyse.This thesis explores the optimisation of finite element model updating using Abaqus combined with operational modal analysis. The main objective is to understand how varying parameter sets and ratios between the number of parameters and the number of outputs influence the accuracy and convergence of the model updating process. Through comprehensive analyses, two distinct parameter configurations were evaluated. One configuration demonstrated superior performance in reducing the objective function and increasing the MMI values. With a parameter-to-output ratio of 2.00, this configuration provided the most accurate alignment with estimated natural frequencies and mode shapes. Detailed analyses revealed significant improvements in the agreement between the model and observed dynamic properties, as reflected by reduced frequency errors and increased MAC and MMI values. However, certain modes, particularly horizontal and torsional modes, showed negative changes after updating, suggesting that these were suppressed by vertical modes. The updated model's dynamic response to buffeting wind loads was also examined, highlighting increased deformations and bending moments, particularly in critical sections such as the midspan and fixed boundaries. These changes were linked to variations in the natural frequencies of the lower modes, which are crucial in dynamic wind load response. The findings highlight the critical role of parameter selection and the parameter-to-output ratio in enhancing the model's accuracy. By refining the dynamic properties, the updated model provides a more reliable tool for structural analysis and assessment

Finite element model updating on the existing Grenland Bridge

Denne avhandlingen utforsker optimaliseringen av modelloppdatering ved bruk av Abaqus kombinert med operasjonell modalanalyse. Hovedmålet er å forstå hvordan varierende sett med parametere og forskjellige forhold mellom antall parametere og outputs påvirker nøyaktigheten og konvergensen i modelloppdateringsprosessen. Gjennom omfattende analyser ble to ulike parameterkonfigurasjoner evaluert. En av disse konfigurasjonene viste seg å ha overlegen ytelse i å redusere objektiv funksjonen og øke MMI verdiene. Denne konfigurasjonen, med et parameter-til-outputforhold på 2,00, ga den mest nøyaktige tilpasningen til estimerte naturlige frekvenser og modefasonger. Detaljerte analyser viste betydelige forbedringer i samsvaret mellom modellen og observerte dynamiske egenskaper, som er reflektert i reduserte frekvensfeil og økte MAC- og MMI-verdier. Imidlertid viste visse moder, spesielt horisontale og torsjonsmoder, negative endringer etter oppdateringen, noe som tyder på at disse ble undertrykt av vertikale moder. Den oppdaterte modellens dynamiske respons på turbulensbelastninger fra vind ble også undersøkt, og det ble påvist økte deformasjoner og bøyemomenter, særlig i kritiske seksjoner som midtspennet og ved innspent opplager. Disse endringene var knyttet til variasjoner i de naturlige frekvensene til de lavere modene, noe som er avgjørende i responsen på dynamiske vindlaster. Funnene understreker den kritiske rollen til parameterutvalg og forholdet mellom antall parametere og outputs for å forbedre modellens nøyaktighet. Ved å forbedre de dynamiske egenskapene gir den oppdaterte modellen et mer pålitelig verktøy for strukturell analyse.This thesis explores the optimisation of finite element model updating using Abaqus combined with operational modal analysis. The main objective is to understand how varying parameter sets and ratios between the number of parameters and the number of outputs influence the accuracy and convergence of the model updating process. Through comprehensive analyses, two distinct parameter configurations were evaluated. One configuration demonstrated superior performance in reducing the objective function and increasing the MMI values. With a parameter-to-output ratio of 2.00, this configuration provided the most accurate alignment with estimated natural frequencies and mode shapes. Detailed analyses revealed significant improvements in the agreement between the model and observed dynamic properties, as reflected by reduced frequency errors and increased MAC and MMI values. However, certain modes, particularly horizontal and torsional modes, showed negative changes after updating, suggesting that these were suppressed by vertical modes. The updated model's dynamic response to buffeting wind loads was also examined, highlighting increased deformations and bending moments, particularly in critical sections such as the midspan and fixed boundaries. These changes were linked to variations in the natural frequencies of the lower modes, which are crucial in dynamic wind load response. The findings highlight the critical role of parameter selection and the parameter-to-output ratio in enhancing the model's accuracy. By refining the dynamic properties, the updated model provides a more reliable tool for structural analysis and assessment

Traditioner, oberoende & Eurasianism - En diskursanalys av Rysslands identitet i skapandet av den Eurasiska Europeiska Unionen

Identity. A widely discussed subject analyzed in this thesis. The intent of the thesis is to perform a discourse analysis of how Russian identity is constructed and how it transforms in time. This is realized by utilizing the theories and deconstructing methods by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe. In addition Laclau, Mouffe and Slavoj Žižeks related theories on construction of political identities is used in order to achieve a wider perspective. The deconstruction of the identity is based on several speeches and interviews given by Eurasian Economic Commission Chairman Viktor Christenko and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin. In order to map out a transformation in the discourse, the discourse is analyzed in two different steps. First the early time period when the Eurasian Economic Union is proposed, the second when the EAEU is being implemented. The conclusion of the thesis is that the Russian construction of the identity is based around the concepts of self-sufficing, pragmatism, equivalence, traditional values and openness, just to name a few. The observed transition in the Russian identity is mainly based on the perceived notion of being excluded by western states and spheres of influence, most notably by the European Union. Keywords: Rysk, Ryssland, diskursteori, identitet, EAEU, Laclau, Mouffe, Žiže

Do loan-to-value requirements matter for local house prices in Norway?

Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Economics/Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Business - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2022In this thesis we look at the effect of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements on the Norwegian housing market during 2010-2013. We test how and to what extend this macroprudential policy would affect local areas with typically many first-time buyers, relative to areas with fewer first-time buyers. The data consists of house price information on Oslo and Bærum, Bergen, Stavanger and Trondheim, with their surrounding municipalities. The research is conducted using a flexible difference-in-differences model. We conclude that house prices relatively increased in areas with a high share of first-time buyers, compared to areas with a low share of first-time buyers, following the 2010 LTV regulation. The thesis will present two possible explanations for this relative price increase, which will be presented in the discussion. Using theory that links credit, leverage regulation and house prices. We conclude that the reallocation of demand of first-time buyers, is the reason for the observed relative price increase in local housing markets with a high share of first-time buyers versus a low share of first-time buyers