Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010), approximates seismicity by a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog and a longer instrumental and historical catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and trustworthy, we used small earthquakes m>2.95 to illuminate active fault structures and likely future epicenters. By calibrating the model on two catalogs of different duration to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain) of predictability incurred when only a short but recent data record is available. Both forecasts, scaled to five and ten years, were submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. (2007) to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California, and, with over half of the five-year experiment over, the forecast performs better than its competitors.Comment: revised manuscript. 22 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

Furosemide Enhances the Release of Endothelial Kinsis, Nitric Oxide and Prostacyclin

Despite a wealth of data, the mechanism of the direct dilator effect of furosemide on the systemic arterial and venous systems is far from being satisfactorily understood. Therefore, we investigated whether furosemide is capable of stimulating the production of the endogenous vasodilators nitric oxide and prostacyclin in primary cultured bovine aortic endothelial cells by an enhanced synthesis and release of endothelium-derived kinins. Nitric oxide production was assessed in terms of intracellular guanosine cyclic-3',5' monophosphate accumulation; kinin and prostacyclin release were determined by specific radioimmunoassays. Furosemide concentration- and time- dependently increased the formation of nitric oxide and prostacyclin. Maximal increases of both autacoids were already obtained after a 5-min incubation with 3 x 10(-7) to 10(-6) mol/l of furosemide. In the same concentration range, furosemide led to an enhanced release of kinins into the supernatant of the cells. This observation was supported by the inhibitory effect of the specific B2 kinin receptor antagonist icatibant (Hoe 140) on the furosemide-induced increase of nitric oxide and prostacyclin. Thus the hemodynamic effects, and in particular the direct early dilator effect, of furosemide may be explained in part by an enhanced endothelial synthesis and release of bradykinin and related kinins, which in turn stimulates endothelial autacoid formation via B2 kinin receptor activation

Balancing reservoir creation and seismic hazard in enhanced geothermal systems

Fracture shear-dilatancy is an essential process for enhancing the permeability of deep geothermal reservoirs, and is usually accompanied by the radiation of seismic waves. However, the hazard and risk perspective of induced seismicity research typically focuses only on the question of how to reduce the occurrence of induced earthquakes. Here we present a quantitative analysis of seismic hazard as a function of the two key factors defining an enhanced geothermal system: The permeability enhancement, and the size of the stimulated reservoir. Our model has two coupled components: (1) a pressure diffusion model and (2) a stochastic seismicity model. Permeability is increased in the source area of each induced earthquake depending on the amount of slip, which is determined by the magnitude. We show that the few largest earthquakes (i.e. 5-10 events with M ≥ 1.5) contribute more than half of the total reservoir stimulation. The results further indicate that planning and controlling of reservoir engineering operations may be compromised by the considerable variability of maximum observed magnitude, reservoir size, the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and Shapiro's seismogenic index (i.e. a measure of seismic reactivity of a reservoir) that arises from the intrinsic stochastic nature of induced seismicity. We also find that injection volume has a large impact on both reservoir size and seismic hazard. Injection rate and injection scheme have a negligible effect. The impact of site-specific parameters on seismicity and reservoir properties is greater than that of the injected volume. In particular, conditions that lead to high b-values—possibly a low differential stress level—have a high impact on seismic hazard, but also reduce the efficiency of the stimulation in terms of permeability enhancement. Under such conditions, target reservoir permeability can still be achieved without reaching an unacceptable level of seismic hazard, if either the initial reservoir permeability is high or if several fractures are stimulated. The proposed methodology is a first step towards including induced seismic hazard analysis into the design of reservoir stimulation in a quantitative and robust manne

Magnetically Stabilized Nematic Order I: Three-Dimensional Bipartite Optical Lattices

We study magnetically stabilized nematic order for spin-one bosons in optical lattices. We show that the Zeeman field-driven quantum transitions between non-nematic Mott states and quantum spin nematic states in the weak hopping limit are in the universality class of the ferromagnetic XXZ (S=1/2) spin model. We further discuss these transitions as condensation of interacting magnons. The development of O(2) nematic order when external fields are applied corresponds to condensation of magnons, which breaks a U(1) symmetry. Microscopically, this results from a coherent superposition of two non-nematic states at each individual site. Nematic order and spin wave excitations around critical points are studied and critical behaviors are obtained in a dilute gas approximation. We also find that spin singlet states are unstable with respect to quadratic Zeeman effects and Ising nematic order appears in the presence of any finite quadratic Zeeman coupling. All discussions are carried out for states in three dimensional bipartite lattices.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

Berry's Phases of Ground States of Interacting Spin-One Bosons: Chains of Monopoles and Monosegments

We study Berry's connection potentials of many-body ground states of spin-one bosons with antiferromagnetic interactions in adiabatically varying magnetic fields. We find that Berry's connection potentials are generally determined by, instead of usual singular monopoles, linearly positioned monosegments each of which carries one unit of topological charge; in the absence of a magnetic field gradient this distribution of monosegments becomes a linear chain of monopoles. Consequently, Berry's phases consist of a series of step functions of magnetic fields; a magnetic field gradient causes rounding of these step-functions. We also calculate Berry's connection fields, profiles of monosegments and show that the total topological charge is conserved in a parameter space

A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan—Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experimen

Everolimus dosing recommendations for tuberous sclerosis complex–associated refractory seizures

ObjectiveThe present analysis examined the exposure-response relationship by means of the predose everolimus concentration (C-min) and the seizure response in patients with tuberous sclerosis complex-associated seizures in the EXIST-3 study. Recommendations have been made for the target C-min range of everolimus for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and the doses necessary to achieve this target C-min

Size distribution of Parkfield's microearthquakes reflects changes in surface creep rate

The nucleation area of the series of M6 events in Parkfield has been shown to be characterized by low b-values throughout the seismic cycle. Since low b-values represent high differential stresses, the asperity structure seems to be always stably stressed and even unaffected by the latest main shock in 2004. However, because fault loading rates and applied shear stress vary with time, some degree of temporal variability of the b-value within stable blocks is to be expected. We discuss in this study adequate techniques and uncertainty treatment for a detailed analysis of the temporal evolution of b-values. We show that the derived signal for the Parkfield asperity correlates with changes in surface creep, suggesting a sensitive time resolution of the b-value stress meter, and confirming near-critical loading conditions within the Parkfield asperit

Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth

We analyze two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models' performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential stress variations in the Earth's crust systematically influence b values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies