Prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of physical activity levels among South African adults in Cape Town and Mount Frere communities in 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: Physical activity has been linked to reduced risk of various cardiometabolic disease, cancer, and premature mortality. We investigated the prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of physical activity among adults in urban and rural communities in South Africa. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey comprising 1733 adults aged ?35 years from the Cape Town (urban) and Mount Frere (rural) sites of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study. Physical activity was assessed using the validated International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to relate physical activity with socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Overall, 74% of participants engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. In the adjusted regression models, women were 34% less likely to engage in vigorous physical activity (OR =0.66, 95%-CI = 0.47-0.93). Physical activity decreased with age, varied with marital status, education and occupation, always in differential ways between urban and rural participants (all interactions p ? 0.047). For instance, in urban settings, those with secondary education were more likely to engage in moderate physical activity (OR = 2.06, 95%-CI = 1.08-3.92) than those with tertiary education. Single people were more likely to engage in high physical activity (OR = 2.10, 95%-CI = 1.03-4.28) than divorced. Overall, skilled participants were more likely to engage in vigorous physical activity (OR = 2.07, 95%-CI = 1.41-3.05) driven by significant effect in rural area (OR = 2.70, 95%-CI = 1.51-4.83). Urban participants were more likely to engage in moderate physical activity (OR = 1.67, 95%-CI = 1.31-2.13) than rural participants. CONCLUSIONS: To prevent chronic diseases among South Africans, attention should be paid to specific policies and interventions aimed at promoting PA among young adults in rural and urban setting, and across the social-economic diversity

Factors affecting Removal of Bacterial Pathogens from Healthcare Surfaces during Dynamic Wiping

Wiping of surfaces contaminated with pathogenic bacteria is a key strategy for combatting transmission of healthcare associated infections. It is essential to understand the extent to which removal of bacteria is modulated by fibre properties, biocidal liquid impregnation and applied hand pressure. The influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the removal efficiencies of pathogenic bacteria was studied. Nonwoven wipes made of either hydrophobic (polypropylene) or hygroscopic (lyocell) fibres were manufactured and dynamic removal efficiency of bacteria studied. The single most important parameter affecting bacterial removal efficiency was impregnation with biocidal liquid (p <0.05). For inherently hygroscopic 100% regenerated cellulose (lyocell) wipes impregnated with biocidal liquid, removal of E. coli, S. aureus and E. faecalis improved by increasing the fabric surface density and wiping pressure to their maximal values - 150 g.m-2 and 13.80 kN.m-2 respectively. For inherently hydrophobic 100% polypropylene nonwoven wipes, the same conditions maximised the removal efficiency of S. aureus, but for E. coli and E. faecalis a reduction in the wiping pressure to 4.68 kN.m-2 was required. Best practice involves the use of higher surface density wipes (150 g m-2) containing regenerated cellulose fibres loaded with liquid biocide, and applied with the greatest possible wiping pressure

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability

Bystander responses to a violent incident in an immersive virtual environment

Under what conditions will a bystander intervene to try to stop a violent attack by one person on another? It is generally believed that the greater the size of the crowd of bystanders, the less the chance that any of them will intervene. A complementary model is that social identity is critical as an explanatory variable. For example, when the bystander shares common social identity with the victim the probability of intervention is enhanced, other things being equal. However, it is generally not possible to study such hypotheses experimentally for practical and ethical reasons. Here we show that an experiment that depicts a violent incident at life-size in immersive virtual reality lends support to the social identity explanation. 40 male supporters of Arsenal Football Club in England were recruited for a two-factor between-groups experiment: the victim was either an Arsenal supporter or not (in-group/out-group), and looked towards the participant for help or not during the confrontation. The response variables were the numbers of verbal and physical interventions by the participant during the violent argument. The number of physical interventions had a significantly greater mean in the ingroup condition compared to the out-group. The more that participants perceived that the Victim was looking to them for help the greater the number of interventions in the in-group but not in the out-group. These results are supported by standard statistical analysis of variance, with more detailed findings obtained by a symbolic regression procedure based on genetic programming. Verbal interventions made during their experience, and analysis of post-experiment interview data suggest that in-group members were more prone to confrontational intervention compared to the out-group who were more prone to make statements to try to diffuse the situation

Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as −9 °C, compared to −14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain–snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1148594)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ROSES Grant 09-IDS09-0049

Phenotypic variation and fitness in a metapopulation of tubeworms (Ridgeia piscesae Jones) at hydrothermal vents

We examine the nature of variation in a hot vent tubeworm, Ridgeia piscesae, to determine how phenotypes are maintained and how reproductive potential is dictated by habitat. This foundation species at northeast Pacific hydrothermal sites occupies a wide habitat range in a highly heterogeneous environment. Where fluids supply high levels of dissolved sulphide for symbionts, the worm grows rapidly in a ‘‘short-fat’’ phenotype characterized by lush gill plumes; when plumes are healthy, sperm package capture is higher. This form can mature within months and has a high fecundity with continuous gamete output and a lifespan of about three years in unstable conditions. Other phenotypes occupy low fluid flux habitats that are more stable and individuals grow very slowly; however, they have low reproductive readiness that is hampered further by small, predator cropped branchiae, thus reducing fertilization and metabolite uptake. Although only the largest worms were measured, only 17% of low flux worms were reproductively competent compared to 91% of high flux worms. A model of reproductive readiness illustrates that tube diameter is a good predictor of reproductive output and that few low flux worms reached critical reproductive size. We postulate that most of the propagules for the vent fields originate from the larger tubeworms that live in small, unstable habitat patches. The large expanses of worms in more stable low flux habitat sustain a small, but long-term, reproductive output. Phenotypic variation is an adaptation that fosters both morphological and physiological responses to differences in chemical milieu and predator pressure. This foundation species forms a metapopulation with variable growth characteristics in a heterogeneous environment where a strategy of phenotypic variation bestows an advantage over specialization

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Australia

Background and Objectives: The Göteborg randomised population-based prostate cancer screening trial demonstrated that Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) based screening reduces prostate cancer deaths compared with an age matched control group. Utilising the prostate cancer detection rates from this study we have investigated the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a similar PSA-based screening strategy for an Australian population of men aged 50-69 years. Methods: A decision model that incorporated Markov processes was developed from a health system perspective.The base case scenario compared a population-based screening programme with current opportunistic screening practices. Costs, utility values, treatment patterns and background mortality rates were derived from Australian data. All costs were adjusted to reflect July 2015 Australian dollars. An alternative scenario compared systematic with opportunistic screening but with optimisation of active surveillance (AS) uptake in both groups. A discount rate of 5% for costs and benefits was utilised. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of variable uncertainty on model outcomes. Results: Our model very closely replicated the number of deaths from both prostate cancer and background mortality in the Göteborg study. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for PSA screening was $AU147,528. However, for years of life gained (LYGs) PSA based screening ($AU45,890/LYG) appeared more favourable. Our alternative scenario with optimised AS improved cost-utility to $AU45,881/QALY, with screening becoming cost-effective at a 92$AU50,000/QALY. It appears more cost-effective if LYGs are used as the relevant outcome, and is more cost effective than the established Australian breast cancer screening programme on this basis. Optimised utilisation of AS increases the cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening dramatically

Parametric methods outperformed non-parametric methods in comparisons of discrete numerical variables

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The number of events per individual is a widely reported variable in medical research papers. Such variables are the most common representation of the general variable type called discrete numerical. There is currently no consensus on how to compare and present such variables, and recommendations are lacking. The objective of this paper is to present recommendations for analysis and presentation of results for discrete numerical variables.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of hypothesis tests and confidence interval methods for variables with outcomes {0, 1, 2}, {0, 1, 2, 3}, {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}, and {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, using the difference between the means as an effect measure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Welch U test (the T test with adjustment for unequal variances) and its associated confidence interval performed well for almost all situations considered. The Brunner-Munzel test also performed well, except for small sample sizes (10 in each group). The ordinary T test, the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, the percentile bootstrap interval, and the bootstrap-<it>t </it>interval did not perform satisfactorily.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The difference between the means is an appropriate effect measure for comparing two independent discrete numerical variables that has both lower and upper bounds. To analyze this problem, we encourage more frequent use of parametric hypothesis tests and confidence intervals.</p

Adolescence As Risk Factor for Adverse Pregnancy Outcome in Central Africa – A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates of maternal and neonatal mortality worldwide. Young maternal age at delivery has been proposed as risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome, yet there is insufficient data from Sub-Saharan Africa. The present study aimed to investigate the influence of maternal adolescence on pregnancy outcomes in the Central African country Gabon. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data on maternal age, parity, birth weight, gestational age, maternal Plasmodium falciparum infection, use of bednets, and intake of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy were collected in a cross-sectional survey in 775 women giving birth in three mother-child health centers in Gabon. Adolescent women (≤16 years of age) had a significantly increased risk to deliver a baby with low birth weight in univariable analysis (22.8%, 13/57, vs. 9.3%, 67/718, OR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.5-5.6) and young maternal age showed a statistically significant association with the risk for low birth weight in multivariable regression analysis after correction for established risk factors (OR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.1-6.5). In further analysis adolescent women were shown to attend significantly less antenatal care visits than adult mothers (3.3±1.9 versus 4.4±1.9 mean visits, p<0.01, n = 356) and this difference accounted at least for part of the excess risk for low birth weight in adolescents. CONCLUSION: Our data demonstrate the importance of adolescent age as risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome. Antenatal care programs specifically tailored for the needs of adolescents may be necessary to improve the frequency of antenatal care visits and pregnancy outcomes in this risk group in Central Africa