Detected changes in precipitation extremes at their native scales derived from in situ measurements

The gridding of daily accumulated precipitation -- especially extremes -- from ground-based station observations is problematic due to the fractal nature of precipitation, and therefore estimates of long period return values and their changes based on such gridded daily data sets are generally underestimated. In this paper, we characterize high-resolution changes in observed extreme precipitation from 1950 to 2017 for the contiguous United States (CONUS) based on in situ measurements only. Our analysis utilizes spatial statistical methods that allow us to derive gridded estimates that do not smooth extreme daily measurements and are consistent with statistics from the original station data while increasing the resulting signal to noise ratio. Furthermore, we use a robust statistical technique to identify significant pointwise changes in the climatology of extreme precipitation while carefully controlling the rate of false positives. We present and discuss seasonal changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation: the largest and most spatially-coherent pointwise changes are in fall (SON), with approximately 33% of CONUS exhibiting significant changes (in an absolute sense). Other seasons display very few meaningful pointwise changes (in either a relative or absolute sense), illustrating the difficulty in detecting pointwise changes in extreme precipitation based on in situ measurements. While our main result involves seasonal changes, we also present and discuss annual changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation. In this paper we only seek to detect changes over time and leave attribution of the underlying causes of these changes for future work

Female Blow Flies As Vertebrate Resource Indicators

Rapid vertebrate diversity evaluation is invaluable for monitoring changing ecosystems worldwide. Wild blow flies naturally recover DNA and chemical signatures from animal carcasses and feces. We demonstrate the power of blow flies as biodiversity monitors through sampling of flies in three environments with varying human influences: Indianapolis, IN and two national parks (the Great Smoky Mountains and Yellowstone). Dissected fly guts underwent vertebrate DNA sequencing (12S and 16S rRNA genes) and fecal metabolite screening. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) was used to determine the most important abiotic factor influencing fly-derived vertebrate richness. In 720 min total sampling time, 28 vertebrate species were identified, with 42% of flies containing vertebrate resources: 23% DNA, 5% feces, and 14% contained both. The species of blow fly used was not important for vertebrate DNA recovery, however the use of female flies versus male flies directly influenced DNA detection. Temperature was statistically relevant across environments in maximizing vertebrate detection (mean = 0.098, sd = 0.048). This method will empower ecologists to test vertebrate community ecology theories previously out of reach due practical challenges associated with traditional sampling

A Survey of Alkali Line Absorption in Exoplanetary Atmospheres

We obtained over 90 hours of spectroscopic observations of four exoplanetary systems with the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET). Observations were taken in transit and out of transit, and we analyzed the differenced spectra---i.e., the transmission spectra---to inspect it for absorption at the wavelengths of the neutral sodium (\ion{Na}{1}) doublet at $\lambda\lambda5889, 5895$ and neutral potassium (\ion{K}{1}) at $\lambda7698$. We used the transmission spectrum at \ion{Ca}{1} $\lambda6122$---which shows strong stellar absorption but is not an alkali metal resonance line that we expect to show significant absorption in these atmospheres---as a control line to examine our measurements for systematic errors. We use an empirical Monte Carlo method to quantity these systematic errors. In a reanalysis of the same dataset using a reduction and analysis pipeline that was derived independently, we confirm the previously seen \ion{Na}{1} absorption in HD 189733b at a level of $(-5.26\pm1.69)\times10^{-4}$ (the average value over a 12 \AA{} integration band to be consistent with previous authors). Additionally, we tentatively confirm the \ion{Na}{1} absorption seen in HD 209458b (independently by multiple authors) at a level of $(-2.63\pm0.81)\times10^{-4}$, though the interpretation is less clear. Furthermore, we find \ion{Na}{1} absorption of $(-3.16\pm2.06)\times10^{-4}$ at $<3\sigma$ in HD 149026b; features apparent in the transmission spectrum are consistent with real absorption and indicate this may be a good target for future observations to confirm. No other results (\ion{Na}{1} in HD 147506b and \ion{Ca}{1} and \ion{K}{1} in all four targets) are significant to $\geq 3\sigma$, although we observe some features that we argue are primarily artifacts.Comment: 38 total pages (preprint format), 9 color figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Kepler-93b: A Terrestrial World Measured to within 120 km, and a Test Case for a New Spitzer Observing Mode

We present the characterization of the Kepler-93 exoplanetary system, based on three years of photometry gathered by the Kepler spacecraft. The duration and cadence of the Kepler observations, in tandem with the brightness of the star, enable unusually precise constraints on both the planet and its host. We conduct an asteroseismic analysis of the Kepler photometry and conclude that the star has an average density of 1.652+/-0.006 g/cm^3. Its mass of 0.911+/-0.033 M_Sun renders it one of the lowest-mass subjects of asteroseismic study. An analysis of the transit signature produced by the planet Kepler-93b, which appears with a period of 4.72673978+/-9.7x10^-7 days, returns a consistent but less precise measurement of the stellar density, 1.72+0.02-0.28 g/cm^3. The agreement of these two values lends credence to the planetary interpretation of the transit signal. The achromatic transit depth, as compared between Kepler and the Spitzer Space Telescope, supports the same conclusion. We observed seven transits of Kepler-93b with Spitzer, three of which we conducted in a new observing mode. The pointing strategy we employed to gather this subset of observations halved our uncertainty on the transit radius ratio R_p/R_star. We find, after folding together the stellar radius measurement of 0.919+/-0.011 R_Sun with the transit depth, a best-fit value for the planetary radius of 1.481+/-0.019 R_Earth. The uncertainty of 120 km on our measurement of the planet's size currently renders it one of the most precisely measured planetary radii outside of the Solar System. Together with the radius, the planetary mass of 3.8+/-1.5 M_Earth corresponds to a rocky density of 6.3+/-2.6 g/cm^3. After applying a prior on the plausible maximum densities of similarly-sized worlds between 1--1.5 R_Earth, we find that Kepler-93b possesses an average density within this group.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Calibrating Convective properties of Solar-like Stars in the Kepler Field of View

Stellar models generally use simple parametrizations to treat convection. The most widely used parametrization is the so-called "Mixing Length Theory" where the convective eddy sizes are described using a single number, \alpha, the mixing-length parameter. This is a free parameter, and the general practice is to calibrate \alpha using the known properties of the Sun and apply that to all stars. Using data from NASA's Kepler mission we show that using the solar-calibrated \alpha is not always appropriate, and that in many cases it would lead to estimates of initial helium abundances that are lower than the primordial helium abundance. Kepler data allow us to calibrate \alpha for many other stars and we show that for the sample of stars we have studied, the mixing-length parameter is generally lower than the solar value. We studied the correlation between \alpha and stellar properties, and we find that \alpha increases with metallicity. We therefore conclude that results obtained by fitting stellar models or by using population-synthesis models constructed with solar values of \alpha are likely to have large systematic errors. Our results also confirm theoretical expectations that the mixing-length parameter should vary with stellar properties.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Prognostic value of desaturation during a six minute walk test in Idiopathic Interstitial Pneumonia

Exercise-induced hypoxia is an index of the severity of interstitial lung disease. We hypothesized that desaturation during a 6-minute walk test would predict mortality for patients with usual interstitial pneumonia (n = 83) and nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (n = 22). Consecutive patients with biopsy-proven disease performed a 6-minute walk test between January 1996 and December 2001. Desaturation was defined as a fall in oxygen saturation to 88% or less during the 6-minute walk test. Desaturation was common (44 of 83 usual interstitial pneumonia and 8 of 22 nonspecific interstitial pneumonia; chi square, p = 0.39). Patients with usual interstitial pneumonia or nonspecific interstitial pneumonia who desaturated had a significantly higher mortality than patients who did not desaturate (respective log-rank tests, p = 0.0018, p = 0.0089). In patients with usual interstitial pneumonia, the presence of desaturation was associated with an increased hazard of death (hazard ratio, 4.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.40, 12.56; p = 0.01) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, baseline diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, FVC, and resting saturation.Weconclude that knowledge of desaturation during a 6-minute walk test adds prognostic information for patients with usual interstitial pneumonia and nonspecific interstitial pneumonia.Supported in part by National Institutes of Health NHLBI Grant #P50HL46487, NHLBI, 1 K24 HL04212, and 1 K23 HL68713.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91972/1/2003 AJRCCM - Prognostic value of desaturation during a six minute walk test in Idiopathic Interstitial Pneumonia.pd

Prognostic implications of physiologic and radiographic changes in idiopathic interstitial pneumonia

Idiopathic interstitial pneumonias are a diverse group of lung diseases with varied prognoses. We hypothesized that changes in physiologic and radiographic parameters would predict survival. We retrospectively examined 80 patients with usual interstitial pneumonia and 29 patients with nonspecific interstitial pneumonia. Baseline characteristics were examined together with 6-month change in forced vital capacity, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide, and ground glass infiltrate and fibrosis on high resolution computed tomography. Patients with usual interstitial pneumonia were more likely to have a statistically significant or marginally significant decline in lung volume, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide, and an increase in ground glass infiltrates (p <= 0.08) compared with patients with nonspecific interstitial pneumonia. For patients with usual interstitial pneumonia, change in forced vital capacity was the best physiologic predictor of mortality (p = 0.05). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model controlling for histopathologic diagnosis, gender, smoking history, baseline forced vital capacity, and 6-month change in forced vital capacity, a decrease in forced vital capacity remained an independent risk factor for mortality (decrease > 10%; hazard ratio 2.47; 95% confidence interval 1.29, 4.73; p = 0.006). We conclude that a 6-month change in forced vital capacity gives additional prognostic information to baseline features for patients with idiopathic interstitial pneumonia.Supported by National Institutes of Health NHLBI grants P50HL46487, NIH/NCRR 3 MO1 RR00042-33S3, NIH/NIA P60 AG08808-06, NHLBI, 1 K24 HL04212, and 1 K23 HL68713.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91973/1/2003 AJRCCM - Prognostic Implications of Physiologic and Radiographic Changes in Idiopathic Interstitial Pneumonia.pd

Fibroblastic Foci in Usual Interstitial Pneumonia: Idiopathic versus Collagen Vascular Disease

A histologic feature of usual interstitial pneumonia is the presence of fibroblastic foci. As some patients with usual interstitial pneumonia and an underlying collagen vascular disease have a better prognosis, we hypothesized that they would have fewer fibroblastic foci. Pathologists reviewed surgical lung biopsies from 108 patients with usual interstitial pneumonia (nine with collagen vascular disease) and assigned a score (absent 0, mild 1, moderate 2, and marked 3) for fibroblastic foci. Patients with idiopathic usual interstitial pneumonia had a higher median profusion of fibroblastic foci (1.75 vs. 1.0, p = 0.003). Baseline characteristics were similar, although patients with a collagen vascular disease were younger, had a shorter duration of symptoms, and had a higher percentage of predicted total lung capacity. Profusion of fibroblastic foci was the most discriminative feature for separating idiopathic from collagen vascular disease–associated usual interstitial pneumonia (odds ratio 8.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.98, 59.42; p = 0.002 for a one-unit increase in fibroblastic foci score). No deaths were noted in the collagen vascular disease–associated usual interstitial pneumonia group; 52 deaths occurred in the idiopathic usual interstitial pneumonia group (log rank; p = 0.005). We conclude that patients with collagen vascular disease–associated usual interstitial pneumonia have fewer fibroblastic foci and improved survival.Supported in part by National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grant #P50HL46487, NIH/NCRR 3 MO1 RR00042–33S3, NIH/NIA P60 AG08808–06, NHLBI 1 K24 HL04212, and 1 K23 HL68713.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91974/1/2003 AJRCCM - Fibroblastic Foci in Usual Interstitial Pneumonia -Idiopathic versus Collagen Vascular Disease.pd