Game theory of mind

This paper introduces a model of ‘theory of mind’, namely, how we represent the intentions and goals of others to optimise our mutual interactions. We draw on ideas from optimum control and game theory to provide a ‘game theory of mind’. First, we consider the representations of goals in terms of value functions that are prescribed by utility or rewards. Critically, the joint value functions and ensuing behaviour are optimised recursively, under the assumption that I represent your value function, your representation of mine, your representation of my representation of yours, and so on ad infinitum. However, if we assume that the degree of recursion is bounded, then players need to estimate the opponent's degree of recursion (i.e., sophistication) to respond optimally. This induces a problem of inferring the opponent's sophistication, given behavioural exchanges. We show it is possible to deduce whether players make inferences about each other and quantify their sophistication on the basis of choices in sequential games. This rests on comparing generative models of choices with, and without, inference. Model comparison is demonstrated using simulated and real data from a ‘stag-hunt’. Finally, we note that exactly the same sophisticated behaviour can be achieved by optimising the utility function itself (through prosocial utility), producing unsophisticated but apparently altruistic agents. This may be relevant ethologically in hierarchal game theory and coevolution

Transport theory yields renormalization group equations

We show that dissipative transport and renormalization can be described in a single theoretical framework. The appropriate mathematical tool is the Nakajima-Zwanzig projection technique. We illustrate our result in the case of interacting quantum gases, where we use the Nakajima-Zwanzig approach to investigate the renormalization group flow of the effective two-body interaction.Comment: 11 pages REVTeX, twocolumn, no figures; revised version with additional examples, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Inspiratory muscle warm-up does not improve cycling time-trial performance

Purpose: This study examined the effects of an active cycling warm-up, with and without the addition of an inspiratory muscle warm-up (IMW), on 10-km cycling time-trial performance

Atropselective syntheses of (-) and (+) rugulotrosin A utilizing point-to-axial chirality transfer

Chiral, dimeric natural products containing complex structures and interesting biological properties have inspired chemists and biologists for decades. A seven-step total synthesis of the axially chiral, dimeric tetrahydroxanthone natural product rugulotrosin A is described. The synthesis employs a one-pot Suzuki coupling/dimerization to generate the requisite 2,2'-biaryl linkage. Highly selective point-to-axial chirality transfer was achieved using palladium catalysis with achiral phosphine ligands. Single X-ray crystal diffraction data were obtained to confirm both the atropisomeric configuration and absolute stereochemistry of rugulotrosin A. Computational studies are described to rationalize the atropselectivity observed in the key dimerization step. Comparison of the crude fungal extract with synthetic rugulotrosin A and its atropisomer verified that nature generates a single atropisomer of the natural product.P50 GM067041 - NIGMS NIH HHS; R01 GM099920 - NIGMS NIH HHS; GM-067041 - NIGMS NIH HHS; GM-099920 - NIGMS NIH HH

An investigation of factors associated with the health and well-being of HIV-infected or HIV-affected older people in rural South Africa

BackgroundDespite the severe impact of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, the health of older people aged 50+ is often overlooked owing to the dearth of data on the direct and indirect effects of HIV on older people's health status and well-being. The aim of this study was to examine correlates of health and well-being of HIV-infected older people relative to HIV-affected people in rural South Africa, defined as participants with an HIV-infected or death of an adult child due to HIV-related cause. MethodsData were collected within the Africa Centre surveillance area using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). A stratified random sample of 422 people aged 50+ participated. We compared the health correlates of HIV-infected to HIV-affected participants using ordered logistic regressions. Health status was measured using three instruments: disability index, quality of life and composite health score. ResultsMedian age of the sample was 60 years (range 50-94). Women HIV-infected (aOR 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08-0.29) and HIV-affected (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.50), were significantly less likely than men to be in good functional ability. Women's adjusted odds of being in good overall health state were similarly lower than men's; while income and household wealth status were stronger correlates of quality of life. HIV-infected participants reported better functional ability, quality of life and overall health state than HIV-affected participants. Discussion and Conclusions The enhanced healthcare received as part of anti-retroviral treatment as well as the considerable resources devoted to HIV care appear to benefit the overall well-being of HIV-infected older people; whereas similar resources have not been devoted to the general health needs of HIV uninfected older people. Given increasing numbers of older people, policy and programme interventions are urgently needed to holistically meet the health and well-being needs of older people beyond the HIV-related care system. <br/

Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633

Small but crucial : the novel small heat shock protein Hsp21 mediates stress adaptation and virulence in Candida albicans

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Theory of disk accretion onto supermassive black holes

Accretion onto supermassive black holes produces both the dramatic phenomena associated with active galactic nuclei and the underwhelming displays seen in the Galactic Center and most other nearby galaxies. I review selected aspects of the current theoretical understanding of black hole accretion, emphasizing the role of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and gravitational instabilities in driving the actual accretion and the importance of the efficacy of cooling in determining the structure and observational appearance of the accretion flow. Ongoing investigations into the dynamics of the plunging region, the origin of variability in the accretion process, and the evolution of warped, twisted, or eccentric disks are summarized.Comment: Mostly introductory review, to appear in "Supermassive black holes in the distant Universe", ed. A.J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publishers, in pres

Supervolcanoes Within an Ancient Volcanic Province in Arabia Terra, Mars

Several irregularly shaped craters located within Arabia Terra, Mars represent a new type of highland volcanic construct and together constitute a previously unrecognized martian igneous province. Similar to terrestrial supervolcanoes, these low-relief paterae display a range of geomorphic features related to structural collapse, effusive volcanism, and explosive eruptions. Extruded lavas contributed to the formation of enigmatic highland ridged plains in Arabia Terra. Outgassed sulfur and erupted fine-grained pyroclastics from these calderas likely fed the formation of altered, layered sedimentary rocks and fretted terrain found throughout the equatorial region. Discovery of a new type of volcanic construct in the Arabia volcanic province fundamentally changes the picture of ancient volcanism and climate evolution on Mars. Other eroded topographic basins in the ancient Martian highlands that have been dismissed as degraded impact craters should be reconsidered as possible volcanic constructs formed in an early phase of widespread, disseminated magmatism on Mars