The colonization history of British water vole (Arvicola amphibius (Linnaeus, 1758)): origins and development of the Celtic fringe.

The terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene, a period from 15 000 to 18 000 Before Present (BP), was critical in establishing the current Holarctic fauna, with temperate-climate species largely replacing cold-adapted ones at mid-latitudes. However, the timing and nature of this process remain unclear for many taxa, a point that impacts on current and future management strategies. Here, we use an ancient DNA dataset to test more directly postglacial histories of the water vole (Arvicola amphibius, formerly A terrestris), a species that is both a conservation priority and a pest in different parts of its range. We specifically examine colonization of Britain, where a complex genetic structure can be observed today. Although we focus on population history at the limits of the species' range, the inclusion of additional European samples allows insights into European postglacial colonization events and provides a molecular perspective on water vole taxonomy

From staff-mix to skill-mix and beyond: towards a systemic approach to health workforce management

Throughout the world, countries are experiencing shortages of health care workers. Policy-makers and system managers have developed a range of methods and initiatives to optimise the available workforce and achieve the right number and mix of personnel needed to provide high-quality care. Our literature review found that such initiatives often focus more on staff types than on staff members' skills and the effective use of those skills. Our review describes evidence about the benefits and pitfalls of current approaches to human resources optimisation in health care. We conclude that in order to use human resources most effectively, health care organisations must consider a more systemic approach - one that accounts for factors beyond narrowly defined human resources management practices and includes organisational and institutional conditions

Trophic Scaling and Occupancy Analysis Reveals a Lion Population Limited by Top-Down Anthropogenic Pressure in the Limpopo National Park, Mozambique

The African lion (Panthera Leo) has suffered drastic population and range declines over the last few decades and is listed by the IUCN as vulnerable to extinction. Conservation management requires reliable population estimates, however these data are lacking for many of the continent’s remaining populations. It is possible to estimate lion abundance using a trophic scaling approach. However, such inferences assume that a predator population is subject only to bottom-up regulation, and are thus likely to produce biased estimates in systems experiencing top-down anthropogenic pressures. Here we provide baseline data on the status of lions in a developing National Park in Mozambique that is impacted by humans and livestock. We compare a direct density estimate with an estimate derived from trophic scaling. We then use replicated detection/nondetection surveys to estimate the proportion of area occupied by lions, and hierarchical ranking of covariates to provide inferences on the relative contribution of prey resources and anthropogenic factors influencing lion occurrence. The direct density estimate was less than 1/3 of the estimate derived from prey resources (0.99 lions/100 km2 vs. 3.05 lions/100 km2). The proportion of area occupied by lions was Y= 0.439 (SE = 0.121), or approximately 44% of a 2 400 km2 sample of potential habitat. Although lions were strongly predicted by a greater probability of encountering prey resources, the greatest contributing factor to lion occurrence was a strong negative association with settlements. Finally, our empirical abundance estimate is approximately 1/3 of a published abundance estimate derived from opinion surveys. Altogether, our results describe a lion population held below resource-based carrying capacity by anthropogenic factors and highlight the limitations of trophic scaling and opinion surveys for estimating predator populations exposed to anthropogenic pressures. Our study provides the first empirical quantification of a population that future change can be measured against.KTE and LA were supported by the May and Stanley Smith Trust, The Wipplinger KL Bursary Found, Wilderness Wildlife Trust and Canada National Student Grants.http://www.plosone.orgam201

Validation and Comparison of a Model of the Effect of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands

Models are used to project coastal wetland distribution under future sea-level rise scenarios to assist decision-making. Model validation and comparison was used to investigate error and uncertainty in the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, a readily available model with minimal validation, particularly for wetlands beyond North America. Accurate parameterisation is required to improve the performance of the model, and indeed any spatial model. Consideration of tidal attenuation further enhances model performance, particularly for coastal wetlands located within estuaries along wave-dominated coastlines. The model does not simulate vegetation changes that are known to occur, particularly when sedimentation exceeds rates of sea-level rise resulting in shoreline progradation. Model performance was reasonable over decadal timescales, decreasing as the time-scale of retrospection increased due to compounding of errors. Comparison with other deterministic models showed reasonable agreement by 2100. However, given the uncertainty of the future and the unpredictable nature of coastal wetlands, it is difficult to ascertain which model could be realistic enough to meet its intended purpose. Model validation and comparison are useful for assessing model efficacy and parameterisation, and should be applied before application of any spatially explicit model of coastal wetland response to sea-level rise