Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Challenges and Opportunities: What Can We Learn from Patients Living with Chronic Musculoskeletal Conditions, Health Professionals and Carers about the Concept of Health Literacy Using Qualitative Methods of Inquiry?

The field of health literacy continues to evolve and concern public health researchers and yet remains a largely overlooked concept elsewhere in the healthcare system. We conducted focus group discussions in England UK, about the concept of health literacy with older patients with chronic musculoskeletal conditions (mean age = 73.4 years), carers and health professionals. Our research posed methodological, intellectual and practical challenges. Gaps in conceptualisation and expectations were revealed, reiterating deficiencies in predominant models for understanding health literacy and methodological shortcomings of using focus groups in qualitative research for this topic. Building on this unique insight into what the concept of health literacy meant to participants, we present analysis of our findings on factors perceived to foster and inhibit health literacy and on the issue of responsibility in health literacy. Patients saw health literacy as a result of an inconsistent interactive process and the implications as wide ranging; healthcare professionals had more heterogeneous views. All focus group discussants agreed that health literacy most benefited from good inter-personal communication and partnership. By proposing a needs-based approach to health literacy we offer an alternative way of conceptualising health literacy to help improve the health of older people with chronic conditions

Ambient-aware continuous care through semantic context dissemination

Background: The ultimate ambient-intelligent care room contains numerous sensors and devices to monitor the patient, sense and adjust the environment and support the staff. This sensor-based approach results in a large amount of data, which can be processed by current and future applications, e. g., task management and alerting systems. Today, nurses are responsible for coordinating all these applications and supplied information, which reduces the added value and slows down the adoption rate. The aim of the presented research is the design of a pervasive and scalable framework that is able to optimize continuous care processes by intelligently reasoning on the large amount of heterogeneous care data. Methods: The developed Ontology-based Care Platform (OCarePlatform) consists of modular components that perform a specific reasoning task. Consequently, they can easily be replicated and distributed. Complex reasoning is achieved by combining the results of different components. To ensure that the components only receive information, which is of interest to them at that time, they are able to dynamically generate and register filter rules with a Semantic Communication Bus (SCB). This SCB semantically filters all the heterogeneous care data according to the registered rules by using a continuous care ontology. The SCB can be distributed and a cache can be employed to ensure scalability. Results: A prototype implementation is presented consisting of a new-generation nurse call system supported by a localization and a home automation component. The amount of data that is filtered and the performance of the SCB are evaluated by testing the prototype in a living lab. The delay introduced by processing the filter rules is negligible when 10 or fewer rules are registered. Conclusions: The OCarePlatform allows disseminating relevant care data for the different applications and additionally supports composing complex applications from a set of smaller independent components. This way, the platform significantly reduces the amount of information that needs to be processed by the nurses. The delay resulting from processing the filter rules is linear in the amount of rules. Distributed deployment of the SCB and using a cache allows further improvement of these performance results

Population policies and education: exploring the contradictions of neo-liberal globalisation

The world is increasingly characterised by profound income, health and social inequalities (Appadurai, 2000). In recent decades development initiatives aimed at reducing these inequalities have been situated in a context of increasing globalisation with a dominant neo-liberal economic orthodoxy. This paper argues that neo-liberal globalisation contains inherent contradictions regarding choice and uniformity. This is illustrated in this paper through an exploration of the impact of neo-liberal globalisation on population policies and programmes. The dominant neo-liberal economic ideology that has influenced development over the last few decades has often led to alternative global visions being overlooked. Many current population and development debates are characterised by polarised arguments with strongly opposing aims and views. This raises the challenge of finding alternatives situated in more middle ground that both identify and promote the socially positive elements of neo-liberalism and state intervention, but also to limit their worst excesses within the population field and more broadly. This paper concludes with a discussion outling the positive nature of middle ground and other possible alternatives

Incorporation of Multiple Coulomb Scattering in the Prediction of Optimal Focal Lengths in Magnetically Focused Proton Radiosurgery

Magnetic focusing of protons is a promising approach to improve patient radiation dose distribution in proton radiosurgery. The paths of individual protons are affected by multiple atomic deflections (multiple Coulomb scattering [MCS]) and affect overall beam characteristics in the patient. The purpose of this project is to account for the effects of MCS in the optimization of focal lengths in magnetically focused proton radiosurgery

All clinically-relevant blood components transmit prion disease following a single blood transfusion: a sheep model of vCJD

Variant CJD (vCJD) is an incurable, infectious human disease, likely arising from the consumption of BSE-contaminated meat products. Whilst the epidemic appears to be waning, there is much concern that vCJD infection may be perpetuated in humans by the transfusion of contaminated blood products. Since 2004, several cases of transfusion-associated vCJD transmission have been reported and linked to blood collected from pre-clinically affected donors. Using an animal model in which the disease manifested resembles that of humans affected with vCJD, we examined which blood components used in human medicine are likely to pose the greatest risk of transmitting vCJD via transfusion. We collected two full units of blood from BSE-infected donor animals during the pre-clinical phase of infection. Using methods employed by transfusion services we prepared red cell concentrates, plasma and platelets units (including leucoreduced equivalents). Following transfusion, we showed that all components contain sufficient levels of infectivity to cause disease following only a single transfusion and also that leucoreduction did not prevent disease transmission. These data suggest that all blood components are vectors for prion disease transmission, and highlight the importance of multiple control measures to minimise the risk of human to human transmission of vCJD by blood transfusion

Automating the search of molecular motor templates by evolutionary methods

The first author is supported by a FPU grant (AP2007-03704) from the Ministerio de Educación of the Spanish Government, and has been supported by the BioEmergences project (code 28892) of the Sixth Framework Programme of the European Union. Our research group has been partially supported by the local government (Junta de Andalucía) through a grant for the GENEX project (P09-TIC-5123).Biological molecular motors are nanoscale devices capable of transforming chemical energy into mechanical work, which are being researched in many scientific disciplines. From a computational point of view, the characteristics and dynamics of these motors are studied at multiple time scales, ranging from very detailed and complex molecular dynamics simulations spanning a few microseconds, to extremely simple and coarse-grained theoretical models of their working cycles. However, this research is performed only in the (relatively few) instances known from molecular biology. In this work, results from elastic network analysis and behaviour-finding methods are applied to explore a subset of the configuration space of template molecular structures that are able to transform chemical energy into directed movement, for a fixed instance of working cycle. While using methods based on elastic networks limits the scope of our results, it enables the implementation of computationally lightweight methods, in a way that evolutionary search techniques can be applied to discover novel molecular motor templates. The results show that molecular motion can be attained from a variety of structural configurations, when a functional working cycle is provided. Additionally, these methods enable a new computational way to test hypotheses about molecular motors

Why is the tropical cyclone boundary layer not "well-mixed"?

Plausible diagnostics for the top of the tropical cyclone boundary layer include (i) the top of the layer of strong frictional inflow and (ii) the top of the “well-mixed” layer; that is, the layer over which potential temperature θ is approximately constant. Observations show that these two candidate definitions give markedly different results in practice, with the inflow layer being roughly twice the depth of the layer of nearly constant θ. Here, we will present an analysis of the thermodynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer derived from an axisymmetric model. We show that the marked dry static stability in the upper part of the inflow layer is due largely to diabatic effects. The radial wind varies strongly with height, and therefore so does radial advection of θ. This process also stabilizes the boundary layer, but to a lesser degree than diabatic effects. We also show that this differential vertical advection contributes to the observed superadiabatic layer adjacent to the ocean surface, where the vertical gradient of the radial wind is reversed, but that the main cause of this unstable layer is heating from turbulent dissipation. The top of the “well-mixed” layer is thus distinct from the top of the boundary layer in tropical cyclones. The top of the inflow layer is a better proxy for the top of the boundary layer, but is not without limitations. These results may have implications for boundary-layer parameterisations that diagnose the boundary layer depth from thermodynamic, or partly thermodynamic, criteria

Magnetically Focused Proton Irradiation of Small Volume Radiosurgery Targets Using a Triplet of Quadrupole Magnets

Proton therapy is an advantageous choice for the irradiation of tumors in proximity of critical structures due to rapid dose fall off and high dose deposition at target compared to dose at the surface of the patient (ie, peak-to-entrance dose ratio (P/E)). However, with target fields below 1.0 cm, as often encountered in proton radiosurgery, multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) broadens proton beams leading to diminished P/E advantages and reduced dose delivery efficiency (DDE). Magnetic focusing tends to counteract MCS and is a promising method to reduce these undesirable effects. The purpose of this research is to investigate the advantages of proton magnetic focusing with a triplet of quadrupole rare earth permanent magnets