Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020; @Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title = {Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events}, howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}

Mixed integer programming in production planning with backlogging and setup carryover : modeling and algorithms

This paper proposes a mixed integer programming formulation for modeling the capacitated multi-level lot sizing problem with both backlogging and setup carryover. Based on the model formulation, a progressive time-oriented decomposition heuristic framework is then proposed, where improvement and construction heuristics are effectively combined, therefore efficiently avoiding the weaknesses associated with the one-time decisions made by other classical time-oriented decomposition algorithms. Computational results show that the proposed optimization framework provides competitive solutions within a reasonable time

Giant half-cycle attosecond pulses

Half-cycle picosecond pulses have been produced from thin photo-conductors, when applying an electric field across the surface and switching on conduction by a short laser pulse. Then the transverse current in the wafer plane emits half-cycle pulses in normal direction, and pulses of 500 fs duration and 1e6 V/m peak electric field have been observed. Here we show that single half-cycle pulses of 50 as duration and up to 1e13 V/m can be produced when irradiating a double foil target by intense few-cycle laser pulses. Focused onto an ultra-thin foil, all electrons are blown out, forming a uniform sheet of relativistic electrons. A second layer, placed at some distance behind, reflects the drive beam, but lets electrons pass straight. Under oblique incidence, beam reflection provides the transverse current, which emits intense half-cycle pulses. Such a pulse may completely ionize even heavier atoms. New types of attosecond pump-probe experiments will become possible.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, to be presented at LEI2011-Light at Extreme Intensities and China-Germany Symposium on Laser Acceleratio

Patent Human Infections with the Whipworm, Trichuris trichiura, Are Not Associated with Alterations in the Faecal Microbiota

Background: The soil-transmitted helminth (STH), Trichuris trichiura colonises the human large intestine where it may modify inflammatory responses, an effect possibly mediated through alterations in the intestinal microbiota. We hypothesised that patent T. trichiura infections would be associated with altered faecal microbiota and that anthelmintic treatment would induce a microbiota resembling more closely that observed in uninfected individuals. Materials and Methods: School children in Ecuador were screened for STH infections and allocated to 3 groups: uninfected, T. trichiura only, and mixed infections with T. trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides. A sample of uninfected children and those with T. trichiura infections only were given anthelmintic treatment. Bacterial community profiles in faecal samples were studied by 454 pyrosequencing of 16 S rRNA genes. Results: Microbiota analyses of faeces were done for 97 children: 30 were uninfected, 17 were infected with T. trichiura, and 50 with T. trichiura and A. lumbricoides. Post-treatment samples were analyzed for 14 children initially infected with T. trichiura alone and for 21 uninfected children. Treatment resulted in 100% cure of STH infections. Comparisons of the microbiota at different taxonomic levels showed no statistically significant differences in composition between uninfected children and those with T. trichiura infections. We observed a decreased proportional abundance of a few bacterial genera from the Clostridia class of Firmicutes and a reduced bacterial diversity among children with mixed infections compared to the other two groups, indicating a possible specific effect of A. lumbricoides infection. Anthelmintic treatment of children with T. trichiura did not alter faecal microbiota composition. Discussion: Our data indicate that patent human infections with T. trichiura may have no effect on faecal microbiota but that A. lumbricoides colonisation might be associated with a disturbed microbiota. Our results also catalogue the microbiota of rural Ecuadorians and indicate differences with individuals from more urban industrialised societies

Low Scale Flavor Gauge Symmetries

We study the possibility of gauging the Standard Model flavor group. Anomaly cancellation leads to the addition of fermions whose mass is inversely proportional to the known fermion masses. In this case all flavor violating effects turn out to be controlled roughly by the Standard Model Yukawa, suppressing transitions for the light generations. Due to the inverted hierarchy the scale of new gauge flavor bosons could be as low as the electroweak scale without violating any existing bound but accessible at the Tevatron and the LHC. The mechanism of flavor protection potentially provides an alternative to Minimal Flavor Violation, with flavor violating effects suppressed by hierarchy of scales rather than couplings.Comment: 24 pages + appendices; v2) Refs. added and numerical examples improved. Results unchanged; v3) small typos in appendix B correcte

Ultrathin 2 nm gold as ideal impedance-matched absorber for infrared light

Thermal detectors are a cornerstone of infrared (IR) and terahertz (THz) technology due to their broad spectral range. These detectors call for suitable broad spectral absorbers with minimalthermal mass. Often this is realized by plasmonic absorbers, which ensure a high absorptivity butonly for a narrow spectral band. Alternativly, a common approach is based on impedance-matching the sheet resistance of a thin metallic film to half the free-space impedance. Thereby, it is possible to achieve a wavelength-independent absorptivity of up to 50 %, depending on the dielectric properties of the underlying substrate. However, existing absorber films typicallyrequire a thickness of the order of tens of nanometers, such as titanium nitride (14 nm), whichcan significantly deteriorate the response of a thermal transducers. Here, we present the application of ultrathin gold (2 nm) on top of a 1.2 nm copper oxide seed layer as an effective IR absorber. An almost wavelength-independent and long-time stable absorptivity of 47(3) %, ranging from 2 $\mu$m to 20 $\mu$m, could be obtained and is further discussed. The presented gold thin-film represents analmost ideal impedance-matched IR absorber that allows a significant improvement of state-of-the-art thermal detector technology

An iterative algorithm for parametrization of shortest length shift registers over finite rings

The construction of shortest feedback shift registers for a finite sequence S_1,...,S_N is considered over the finite ring Z_{p^r}. A novel algorithm is presented that yields a parametrization of all shortest feedback shift registers for the sequence of numbers S_1,...,S_N, thus solving an open problem in the literature. The algorithm iteratively processes each number, starting with S_1, and constructs at each step a particular type of minimal Gr\"obner basis. The construction involves a simple update rule at each step which leads to computational efficiency. It is shown that the algorithm simultaneously computes a similar parametrization for the reciprocal sequence S_N,...,S_1.Comment: Submitte

Inhibition of the tyrosine phosphatase SHP-2 suppresses angiogenesis in vitro and in vivo

Endothelial cell survival is indispensable to maintain endothelial integrity and initiate new vessel formation. We investigated the role of SHP-2 in endothelial cell survival and angiogenesis in vitro as well as in vivo. SHP-2 function in cultured human umbilical vein and human dermal microvascular endothelial cells was inhibited by either silencing the protein expression with antisense-oligodesoxynucleotides or treatment with a pharmacological inhibitor (PtpI IV). SHP-2 inhibition impaired capillary-like structure formation (p < 0.01; n = 8) in vitro as well as new vessel growth ex vivo (p < 0.05; n = 10) and in vivo in the chicken chorioallantoic membrane (p < 0.01, n = 4). Additionally, SHP-2 knock-down abrogated fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF-2)-dependent endothelial proliferation measured by MTT reduction ( p ! 0.01; n = 12). The inhibitory effect of SHP-2 knock-down on vessel growth was mediated by increased endothelial apoptosis ( annexin V staining, p ! 0.05, n = 9), which was associated with reduced FGF-2-induced phosphorylation of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3-K), Akt and extracellular regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) and involved diminished ERK1/2 phosphorylation after PI3-K inhibition (n=3). These results suggest that SHP-2 regulates endothelial cell survival through PI3-K-Akt and mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways thereby strongly affecting new vessel formation. Thus, SHP-2 exhibits a pivotal role in angiogenesis and may represent an interesting target for therapeutic approaches controlling vessel growth. Copyright (C) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel