Testing Alternative Theories of the Property Price-Trading Volume Correlation

This article examines the correlation between the real housing price and trading volume. Contrary to the predictions of standard rational expectation models, a robust positive correlation between the two variables is identified. While no clear lead-lag relationship is found in the raw data, which is more consistent with the downpayment effect model, the medium-run component of the trading volume tends to lead (and Granger cause) the corresponding component of the property price, which is more consistent with the search theoretic model. An explanation for this difference in behavior is suggested and several future research directions are provided.

Diagnostic accuracy of single baseline measurement of Elecsys Troponin T high-sensitive assay for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in emergency department: systematic review and meta-analysis

Published onlineJournal ArticleMeta-AnalysisResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tReviewOBJECTIVE: To obtain summary estimates of the accuracy of a single baseline measurement of the Elecsys Troponin T high-sensitive assay (Roche Diagnostics) for the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in patients presenting to the emergency department. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, and other relevant electronic databases were searched for papers published between January 2006 and December 2013. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if they evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of a single baseline measurement of Elecsys Troponin T high-sensitive assay for the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute coronary syndrome. STUDY APPRAISAL AND DATA SYNTHESIS: The first author screened all titles and abstracts identified through the searches and selected all potentially relevant papers. The screening of the full texts, the data extraction, and the methodological quality assessment, using the adapted QUADAS-2 tool, were conducted independently by two reviewers with disagreements being resolved through discussion or arbitration. If appropriate, meta-analysis was conducted using the hierarchical bivariate model. RESULTS: Twenty three studies reported the performance of the evaluated assay at presentation. The results for 14 ng/L and 3-5 ng/L cut-off values were pooled separately. At 14 ng/L (20 papers), the summary sensitivity was 89.5% (95% confidence interval 86.3% to 92.1%) and the summary specificity was 77.1% (68.7% to 83.7%). At 3-5 ng/L (six papers), the summary sensitivity was 97.4% (94.9% to 98.7%) and the summary specificity was 42.4% (31.2% to 54.5%). This means that if 21 of 100 consecutive patients have the target condition (21%, the median prevalence across the studies), 2 (95% confidence interval 2 to 3) of 21 patients with acute myocardial infarction will be missed (false negatives) if 14 ng/L is used as a cut-off value and 18 (13 to 25) of 79 patients without acute myocardial infarction will test positive (false positives). If the 3-5 ng/L cut-off value is used, <1 (0 to 1) patient with acute myocardial infarction will be missed and 46 (36 to 54) patients without acute myocardial infarction will test positive. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that a single baseline measurement of the Elecsys Troponin T high-sensitive assay could be used to rule out acute myocardial infarction if lower cut-off values such as 3 ng/L or 5 ng/L are used. However, this method should be part of a comprehensive triage strategy and may not be appropriate for patients who present less than three hours after symptom onset. Care must also be exercised because of the higher imprecision of the evaluated assay and the greater effect of lot-to-lot reagent variation at low troponin concentrations. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number CRD42013003926.This research was funded by the South West Academic Health Science Network (AHSN) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership for Applied Health Research and Care for the South West Peninsula

Four-nucleon contact interactions from holographic QCD

We calculate the low energy constants of four-nucleon interactions in an effective chiral Lagrangian in holographic QCD. We start with a D4-D8 model to obtain meson-nucleon interactions and then integrate out massive mesons to obtain the four-nucleon interactions in 4D. We end up with two low energy constants at the leading order and seven of them at the next leading order, which is consistent with the effective chiral Lagrangian. The values of the low energy constants are evaluated with the first five Kaluza-Klein resonances.Comment: 28 page

Lorentz gauge theory as a model of emergent gravity

We consider a class of Lorentz gauge gravity theories within Riemann-Cartan geometry which admits a topological phase in the gravitational sector. The dynamic content of such theories is determined only by the contortion part of the Lorentz gauge connection. We demonstrate that there is a unique Lagrangian that admits propagating spin one mode in correspondence with gauge theories of other fundamental interactions. Remarkably, despite the R^2 type of the Lagrangian and non-compact structure of the Lorentz gauge group, the model possesses rather a positive-definite Hamiltonian. This has been proved in the lowest order of perturbation theory. This implies further consistent quantization and leads to renormalizable quantum theory. It is assumed that the proposed model describes possible mechanism of emergent Einstein gravity at very early stages of the Universe due to quantum dynamics of contortion.Comment: 11 pages, final version, minor correction

The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012

The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high-loss (severe) storms. The best-performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated. Possible reasons for this underestimation include the model failing to simulate strong enough pressure gradients and not representing convective gusts. A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at www.europeanwindstorms.org