The Role of Production Risk in Sustainable Land-Management Technology Adoption in the Ethiopian Highlands

This paper provides empirical evidence of production risk impact on sustainable land- management technology adoption, using two years of cross-sectional plot-level data collected in the Ethiopian highlands. We used a moment-based approach, which allowed a flexible representation of the production risk (Antle 1983, 1987). Mundlak’s approach was used to capture the unobserved heterogeneity along with other regressors in the estimation of fertilizer and conservation adoption. The empirical results revealed that impact of production risk varied by technology type. Production risks (variance and crop failure as measured by second and third central moments, respectively) had significant impact on fertilizer adoption and extent of adoption. However, this impact was not observed in adoption of conservation technology. On the other hand, expected return (as measured by the first central moment) had a positive significant impact on both fertilizer (adoption and intensity) and conservation adoption. Economic instruments that hedge against risk exposure, including downside risk and increase productivity, are important to promote adoption of improved technology and reduce poverty in Ethiopia.Production risk, sustainable land management technology adoption, moment based estimation, Ethiopia

Risk aversion in low income countries: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

"Production systems in low-income developing countries are generally poorly diversified, focusing on rainfed staple crop production and raising livestock. These activities are inherently risky and investment and production decisions by farm households are therefore made within environments that are affected by risk. Because of poorly developed or absent credit and insurance markets it is difficult to pass any of these risks to a third party. As a result, it is often found that even when the expected net return is high, households are reluctant to adopt new agricultural technologies when they involve risk. Better understanding risk behavior will be essential for identifying appropriate farm-level strategies for adaptation to climate change by low-income farmers. Despite risk's potentially central role in farm investment decisions, there have been few attempts to estimate the magnitude and nature of risk aversion of farm households in low-income developing countries. To partially close this gap, this paper uses an experimental approach applied to 262 households in the Ethiopian highlands with real payoffs. By incorporating both small and large stakes and gains and losses into the experiment, we test for the presence of low stake risk aversion and loss aversion. We find that more than 50 percent of the households are severely or extremely risk averse. This contrasts with studies in Asia where most household decision-makers exhibit moderate to intermediate risk aversion. We find that households that stand to lose as well as gain something from participation in games are significantly more risk averse than households playing gains-only games. This strongly suggests that agricultural extension efforts involving losses as well as gains may face systematic resistance by farmers in low-income, high-risk environments. Promotion of technologies with downside risks – even if the upside potential is enormous – should therefore be combined with insurance or other support. We also find that even without the possibility of losses households are much more averse to risk when stakes are high. Results indicate that insurance or other support can likely be phased out. After initial successes have convinced farmers that technologies are viable, risk aversion declines. There are also significant differences in risk averting behavior between relatively poorer and wealthier farm households, which is consistent with decreasing absolute risk aversion. This suggests that as wealth is built up households are willing to take on more risk in exchange for higher returns. Both these findings suggest a strong path dependence. Efforts to develop poor rural areas through promotion of risky technologies should take this path dependence into account. Early successes are important, but households should also be allowed to build up wealth before they are challenged or tempted to take on more risky ventures. Furthermore, the finding that even without the possibility of losses households are much more risk averse when stakes are higher, suggests that agricultural extension should start modestly before asking households to take on larger gambles." from Authors' Abstractexperimental studies, loss aversion, risk aversion, Risk management, econometric models, Farm households,

Molecular Gas during the Post-Starburst Phase: Low Gas Fractions in Green Valley Seyfert Post-Starburst Galaxies

Post-starbursts (PSBs) are candidate for rapidly transitioning from star-bursting to quiescent galaxies. We study the molecular gas evolution of PSBs at z ~ 0.03 - 0.2. We undertook new CO (2-1) observations of 22 Seyfert PSBs candidates using the ARO Submillimeter Telescope. This sample complements previous samples of PSBs by including green valley PSBs with Seyfert-like emission, allowing us to analyze for the first time the molecular gas properties of 116 PSBs with a variety of AGN properties. The distribution of molecular gas to stellar mass fractions in PSBs is significantly different than normal star-forming galaxies in the COLD GASS survey. The combined samples of PSBs with Seyfert-like emission line ratios have a gas fraction distribution which is even more significantly different and is broader (~ 0.03-0.3). Most of them have lower gas fractions than normal star-forming galaxies. We find a highly significant correlation between the WISE 12 micron to 4.6 micron flux ratios and molecular gas fractions in both PSBs and normal galaxies. We detect molecular gas in 27% of our Seyfert PSBs. Taking into account the upper limits, the mean and the dispersion of the distribution of the gas fraction in our Seyfert PSB sample are much smaller (mean = 0.025, std dev. = 0.018) than previous samples of Seyfert PSBs or PSBs in general (mean ~ 0.1 - 0.2, std dev. ~ 0.1 - 0.2).Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures accepted in MNRA

Soil and water conservation technologies: A buffer against production risk in the face of climate change?: Insights from the Nile Basin in Ethiopia

"This study investigates the impact of different soil and water conservation technologies on the variance of crop production in Ethiopia to determine the risk implications of the different technologies in different regions and rainfall zones. Given the production risks posed by climate change, such information can be used by decision makers to identify appropriate agricultural practices that act as a buffer against climate change. Using a household- and plot-level data set, we apply the Just and Pope framework using a Cobb-Douglas production function to investigate the impact of various soil and water conservation technologies on average crop yields and the variance of crop yields, while controlling for several household- and plot-level factors. Results show that soil and water conservation investments perform differently in different rainfall areas and regions of Ethiopia, which underscores the importance of careful geographical targeting when promoting and scaling up soil and water conservation technologies. We find that although soil bunds, stone bunds, grass strips, waterways, and contours all have very significant positive impacts on average crop yields in low-rainfall areas, only soil bunds have significant risk-reducing effects in these areas with low agricultural potential. We also find that irrigation and use of improved seeds have insignificant risk-reducing effects in low-rainfall areas, suggesting that—as currently implemented—these interventions may not be appropriate adaptation strategies for these environments. Regionally, in the low-rainfall areas we find significant spatial heterogeneity, with soil bunds being risk reducing in Oromiya and Amhara, and stone bunds, grass strips, and waterways being risk reducing in the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region. Irrigation was only risk reducing in the high-rainfall areas of Benishangul-Gumuz. These results remain robust even after controlling for the major crops grown on the plot. Results show that soil and water conservation technologies have significant impacts on reducing production risk in Ethiopia and could be part of the country's climate-proofing strategy. However, results also show that one-size-fits-all recommendations are not appropriate given the differences in agro-ecology and other confounding factors." from authors' abstractJust and Pope, Risk increasing, Risk reducing, Stone bunds, Soil bunds, Waterways, Grass strips, Contours, Soil and water conservation, Low-rainfall areas, High-rainfall areas, Climate change,

Impact of soil conservation on crop production in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands:

"Land degradation, in the form of soil erosion and nutrient depletion, threatens food security and the sustainability of agricultural production in many developing countries. Governments and development agencies have invested substantial resources in promoting soil conservation practices, in an effort to improve environmental conditions and reduce poverty. However, very limited rigorous empirical work has examined the economics of adopting soil conservation technology. This paper investigates the impact of stone bunds on crop production value per hectare in low and high rainfall areas of the Ethiopian highlands using cross-sectional data from more than 900 households having multiple plots per household. We use modified random effects models, stochastic dominance analysis (SDA) and matching methods to ensure robustness. The parametric regression and SDA estimates are based on matched observations obtained from nearest neighbor matching using propensity score estimates. This is important because conventional regression and SDA estimates are obtained without ensuring the existence of comparable conserved and non-conserved plots within the distribution of covariates. Here, we use matching methods, random effects and Mundlak's approach to control for selection and endogeneity biases that may arise due to correlation of unobserved heterogeneity and observed explanatory variables. The three methods used herein consistently show that plots with stone bunds are more productive than those without such technologies in semi-arid areas but not in higher rainfall areas, apparently because the moisture-conserving benefits of this technology are more beneficial in drier areas. This implies that the performance of stone bunds varies by agro-ecological type, suggesting a need for the design and implementation of appropriate site-specific technologies." from Authors' AbstractSoil conservation, Crop production, Agro-ecology, Matching method, Stochastic dominance, Modified random effects model, Land management,

Incidence and Predictors of Tuberculosis Among Adult PLWHA at Public Health Facilities of Hawassa City

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most frequently diagnosed opportunistic infection (OI) and disease in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), world-wide. This study aimed at determining the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among people living with HIV.A Six year retrospective follow up study was conducted among adult PLHIV. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors.A total of 554 patients were followed and produced 1830.3 person year of observation. One hundred sixty one new TB cases occurred during the follow up period. The overall incidence density of TB was 8.79 per 100 person-year (PY). It was high (148.71/100 PY) in the first year of enrolment. The cumulative proportion of TB free survival was 79% and 67% at the end of first and sixth years, respectively. Not having formal education(AHR=2.68, 95%CI: 1.41, 5.11 ), base line WHO clinical stage IV (AHR = 3.22, 95% CI=1.91-5.41), CD4 count <50 cell/ul (AHR=2.41, 95%CI=1.31, 4.42), Being bed redden (AHR= 2.89, 95%CI=1.72, 3.78), past TB history (AHR=1.65, 95% CI = 1.06,2.39), substance use (AHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.03,2.06) and being on pre ART (AHR=1.62, 95%CI:1.03-2.54 ) were independently predicted tuberculosis occurrence. Advanced WHO clinical stage, limited functional status, past TB history, addiction and low CD4 (<50cell/ul) count at enrollment were found to be the independent predictor of tuberculosis occurrence. Therefore early initiation of treatment and intensive follow up is important

Does Adaptation to Climate Change Provide Food Security? A Micro-Perspective from Ethiopia

We examine the driving forces behind farm households' decisions to adapt to climate change, and the impact of adaptation on farm households' food productivity. We estimate a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. Access to credit, extension and information are found to be the main drivers behind adaptation. We find that adaptation increases food productivity, that the farm households that did not adapt would benefit the most from adaptatio

Incidence and Predictors of Tuberculosis Among Adult PLWHA at Public Health Facilities of Hawassa City

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most frequently diagnosed opportunistic infection (OI) and disease in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), world-wide. This study aimed at determining the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among people living with HIV.A Six year retrospective follow up study was conducted among adult PLHIV. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors.A total of 554 patients were followed and produced 1830.3 person year of observation. One hundred sixty one new TB cases occurred during the follow up period. The overall incidence density of TB was 8.79 per 100 person-year (PY). It was high (148.71/100 PY) in the first year of enrolment. The cumulative proportion of TB free survival was 79% and 67% at the end of first and sixth years, respectively. Not having formal education(AHR=2.68, 95%CI: 1.41, 5.11 ), base line WHO clinical stage IV (AHR = 3.22, 95% CI=1.91-5.41), CD4 count <50 cell/ul (AHR=2.41, 95%CI=1.31, 4.42), Being bed redden (AHR= 2.89, 95%CI=1.72, 3.78), past TB history (AHR=1.65, 95% CI = 1.06,2.39), substance use (AHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.03,2.06) and being on pre ART (AHR=1.62, 95%CI:1.03-2.54 ) were independently predicted tuberculosis occurrence. Advanced WHO clinical stage, limited functional status, past TB history, addiction and low CD4 (<50cell/ul) count at enrollment were found to be the independent predictor of tuberculosis occurrence. Therefore early initiation of treatment and intensive follow up is important

The impact of climate change and adaptation on food production in low-income countries: Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia

"This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on food production in a typical low-income developing country. Furthermore, it provides an estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change and the implications of these strategies on farm productivity. The analysis relies on primary data from 1,000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Based on monthly collected meteorological station data, the thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to interpolate the specific rainfall and temperature values of each household. The rainfall data were disaggregated at the seasonal level. We found that climate change and climate change adaptations have significant impact on farm productivity. Extension services (both formal and farmer to farmer), as well as access to credit and information on future climate changes, affect adaptation positively and significantly. Farm households with larger access to social capital are more likely to adopt yield-related adaptation strategies." from authors' abstractAdaptation, Climate change, farm level productivity, rainfall,