What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?

This paper uses information contained in the cross-country yield curves to test the asset-pricing approach to exchange rate determination, which models the nominal exchange rate as the discounted present value of its expected future fundamentals. Research on the term structure of interest rates has long argued that the yield curve contains information about future economic activity such as GDP growth and inflation. Bringing this lesson to the international context, we extract the Nelson-Siegel (1987) factors of relative level, slope, and curvature from cross-country yield differences to proxy expected movements in future exchange rate fundamentals. Using monthly data between 1985-2005 for the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and the US, we show that the yield curve factors indeed can explain and predict bilateral exchange rate movements and excess currency returns one month to two years ahead. Out-of-sample analysis also shows the yield curve factors to outperform a random walk in forecasting short-term exchange rate returns.

A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination

The nominal exchange rate is both a macroeconomic variable equilibrating international markets and a financial asset that embodies expectations and prices risks associated with cross border currency holdings. Recognizing this, we adopt a joint macro-finance strategy to model the exchange rate. We incorporate into a monetary exchange rate model macroeconomic stabilization through Taylor-rule monetary policy on one hand, and on the other, market expectations and perceived risks embodied in the cross-country yield curves. Using monthly data between 1985 and 2005 for Canada, Japan, the UK and the US, we employ a state-space system to model the relative yield curves between country-pairs using the Nelson and Siegel (1987) latent factors, and combine them with monetary policy targets (output gap and inflation) into a vector autoregression (VAR) for bilateral exchange rate changes. We find strong evidence that both the financial and macro variables are important for explaining exchange rate dynamics and excess currency returns, especially for the yen and the pound rates relative to the dollar. Moreover, by decomposing the yield curves into expected future yields and bond market term premiums, we show that both expectations about future macroeconomic conditions and perceived risks are priced into the currencies. These findings provide support for the view that the nominal exchange rate is determined by both macroeconomic as well as financial forces.

Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Asymmetric Adjustment: Evidence from Mainland China and Taiwan

This study applies threshold cointegration test advanced by Enders and Siklos (2001) to investigate the properties of asymmetric adjustment in long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for both Mainland China and Taiwan during the January 1986 to October 2009 period. Although there is evidence of long-run PPP for both Mainland China and Taiwan, the adjustment mechanism is asymmetric. These results have important policy implications for both Mainland China and Taiwan under study.threshold cointegration test; Purchasing Power Parity; asymmetric adjustment; Mainland China; Taiwan

Fair trade in insurance industry: Premium determination of Taiwan automobile insurance

This paper examines premium determination of voluntary automobile insurance policy and risk classification under a heavily regulated rating system in Taiwan. We investigate the distribution of actual premium and pure premium, based on unique data to test if premium reflect appropriate gender-age factor. The reasonableness of loading and the difference in driving exposure between policyholder and driver are investigated for three different types of policy. An adjustment of gender-age premium coefficients is called for

BIOMARKERS IN PALEOZOIC CRINOIDS (BORDEN GROUP, MISSISSIPPIAN): IMPLICATIONS FOR PHYLOGENY

O'Malley, Christina E., Ausich, William I., and Chin, Yu Ping 2005, Biomarkers in Paleozoic crinoids (Borden Group, Mississippian): implications for Phylogeny [poster]: Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, 2005, Session 57, Paper 57-8. Abstract published: Geological Society of America, Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 37, No. 7, p. 133; http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2005AM/finalprogram/abstract_95335.ht

Binary solvent extraction system and extraction time effects on phenolic antioxidants from kenaf seeds (Hibiscus cannabinus L.) extracted by a pulsed ultrasonic-assisted extraction

The aim of this study was to determine the best parameter for extracting phenolic-enriched kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus L.) seeds by a pulsed ultrasonic-assisted extraction. The antioxidant activities of ultrasonic-assisted kenaf seed extracts (KSE) were determined by a 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical scavenging capacity assay, 2,2′-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulphonic acid) (ABTS) radical scavenging assay, β-carotene bleaching inhibition assay, and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) assay. Total phenolic content (TPC) and total flavonoid content (TFC) evaluations were carried out to determine the phenolic and flavonoid contents in KSE. The KSE from the best extraction parameter was then subjected to high performance l.quid chromatography (HPLC) to quantify the phenolic compounds. The optimised extraction condition employed 80% ethanol for 15 min, with the highest values determined for the DPPH, ABTS, and FRAP assay. KSE contained mainly tannic acid (2302.20 mg/100 g extract) and sinapic acid (1198.22 mg/100 g extract), which can be used as alternative antioxidants in the food industry

Cytotoxic activity of kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus L.) seed extract and oil against human cancer cell lines

Objective: To examine the cytotoxic properties of both the kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus L.) seed extract and kenaf seed oil on human cervical cancer, human breast cancer, human colon cancer and human lung cancer cell lines. Methods: The in vitro cytotoxic activity of the kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus L.) seed extract and kenaf seed oil on human cancer cell lines was evaluated by using 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide and sulforhodamine B assays. Cell morphological changes were observed by using an inverted light microscope. Results: The kenaf seed extract (KSE) exhibited a lower IC50 than kenaf seed oil (KSO) in all of the cancer cell lines. Morphological alterations in the cell lines after KSE and KSO treatment were observed. KSE and KSO possessed effective cytotoxic activities against all the cell lines been selected. Conclusions: KSE and KSO could be potential sources of natural anti-cancer agents. Further investigations on using kenaf seeds for anti-proliferative properties are warranted