Economic modeling of intermittency in wind power generation

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (p. 59-61).The electricity sector is a major source of carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global climate change. Over the past decade wind energy has steadily emerged as a potential source for large-scale, low carbon energy. As wind power generation increases around the world, there is increasing interest in the impacts of adding intermittent power to the electricity grid and the potential costs of compensating for the intermittency. The goal of this thesis research is to assess the costs and potential of wind power as a greenhouse gas abatement option for electricity generation. Qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used to evaluate the challenges involved in integrating intermittent generation into the electricity sector. A computable generation equilibrium model was developed to explicitly account for the impacts of increasing wind penetration on the capacity value given to wind. The model also accounts for the impacts of wind quality and geographic diversity on electricity generation, and the impacts of learning-by-doing on the total cost of production. We notice that the rising costs associated of intermittency will limit the ability of wind to take a large share of the electricity market. As wind penetration increases, a greater cost is imposed on the wind generator in order to compensate for the intermittency impacts, making the total cost from energy from wind more expensive. Because the model explicitly accounts for the impacts of intermittency, the decision to add wind power to the grid is based on the marginal cost of adding additional intermittent sources to the system in addition to the cost of generating wind energy.(cont.) This model was incorporated into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model in order to analyze the adoption of wind technology under three policy scenarios. In a business as usual scenario with no wind subsidies or carbon constraints, wind energy generation rises to 0.80 trillion KWh in 2090 and accounts for 9% of the total electricity generation. In a scenario that stabilized greenhouse gases at 550 parts per million, high carbon penalties motivate the entry of 1.16 trillion KWh of wind energy generation in 2055 that accounts for 22% of the total electricity generation. With a production tax credit subsidy for wind generation, wind energy generation increases by average of 12% over the base case scenario during the years the policy was in effect. However, when the subsidy tapers off, wind generation in later periods remains unchanged.by Alan Yung Chen Cheng.S.M

Absorption Cross Sections of NH_3, NH_2D, NHD_2, and ND_3 in the Spectral Range 140-220 nm and Implications for Planetary Isotopic Fractionation

Cross sections for photoabsorption of NH_3, NH_2D, NHD_2, and ND_3 in the spectral region 140-220 nm were determined at ~298 K using synchrotron radiation. Absorption spectra of NH_2D and NHD_2 were deduced from spectra of mixtures of NH_3 and ND_3, of which the equilibrium concentrations for all four isotopologues obey statistical distributions. Cross sections of NH_2D, NHD_2, and ND_3 are new. Oscillator strengths, an integration of absorption cross sections over the spectral lines, for both A ← X and B ← X systems of NH_3 agree satisfactorily with previous reports; values for NH_2D, NHD_2, and ND_3 agree with quantum chemical predictions. The photolysis of NH_3 provides a major source of reactive hydrogen in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere of giant planets such as Jupiter. Incorporating the measured photoabsorption cross sections of NH_3 and NH_2D into the Caltech/JPL photochemical diffusive model for the atmosphere of Jupiter, we find that the photolysis efficiency of NH_2D is lower than that of NH_3 by as much as 30%. The D/H ratio in NH_2D/NH_3 for tracing the microphysics in the troposphere of Jupiter is also discussed

Online platform for applying space–time scan statistics for prospectively detecting emerging hot spots of dengue fever

Abstract Background Cases of dengue fever have increased in areas of Southeast Asia in recent years. Taiwan hit a record-high 42,856 cases in 2015, with the majority in southern Tainan and Kaohsiung Cities. Leveraging spatial statistics and geo-visualization techniques, we aim to design an online analytical tool for local public health workers to prospectively identify ongoing hot spots of dengue fever weekly at the village level. Methods A total of 57,516 confirmed cases of dengue fever in 2014 and 2015 were obtained from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (TCDC). Incorporating demographic information as covariates with cumulative cases (365 days) in a discrete Poisson model, we iteratively applied space–time scan statistics by SaTScan software to detect the currently active cluster of dengue fever (reported as relative risk) in each village of Tainan and Kaohsiung every week. A village with a relative risk >1 and p value <0.05 was identified as a dengue-epidemic area. Assuming an ongoing transmission might continuously spread for two consecutive weeks, we estimated the sensitivity and specificity for detecting outbreaks by comparing the scan-based classification (dengue-epidemic vs. dengue-free village) with the true cumulative case numbers from the TCDC’s surveillance statistics. Results Among the 1648 villages in Tainan and Kaohsiung, the overall sensitivity for detecting outbreaks increases as case numbers grow in a total of 92 weekly simulations. The specificity for detecting outbreaks behaves inversely, compared to the sensitivity. On average, the mean sensitivity and specificity of 2-week hot spot detection were 0.615 and 0.891 respectively (p value <0.001) for the covariate adjustment model, as the maximum spatial and temporal windows were specified as 50% of the total population at risk and 28 days. Dengue-epidemic villages were visualized and explored in an interactive map. Conclusions We designed an online analytical tool for front-line public health workers to prospectively detect ongoing dengue fever transmission on a weekly basis at the village level by using the routine surveillance data

Isotopic Fractionation of Nitrogen in Ammonia in the Troposphere of Jupiter

Laboratory measurements of the photoabsorption cross section of ^(15)NH_3 at wavelengths between 140 and 220 nm are presented for the first time. Incorporating the measured photoabsorption cross sections of ^(15)NH_3 and ^(14)NH_3 into a one-dimensional photochemical diffusive model, we find that at 400 mbar, the photolytic efficiency of ^(15)NH_3 is about 38% greater than that of ^(14)NH_3. In addition, it is known that ammonia can condense in the region between 200 and 700 mbar, and the condensation tends to deplete the abundance ratio of ^(15)NH_3 and ^(14)NH_3. By matching the observed ratio of ^(15)NH_3 and ^(14)NH_3 at 400 mbar, the combined effect of photolysis and microphysics produces the ratio of (2.42 ± 0.34) × 10^(-3) in the deep atmosphere, in excellent agreement with the Galileo spacecraft measurements. The usefulness of the isotopic composition of ammonia as a tracer of chemical and dynamical processes in the troposphere of Jupiter is discussed

The effect of mechanism design on the performance of a quadruped walking machine

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of mechanism design on the performance of a quadruped walking machine. For studying the effect of mechanism design on the performance of a quadruped walking machine, four designs with different crank and leg arrangements are proposed and analyzed. The performance of the walking machine, including the stance leg sequence, foot trajectory, pitch angle, and dynamic response of the quadruped walking machine are investigated and compared with the existing design. The results show that the phrase angle between front and rear legs on the same side should be 0° or 90° and the one between the legs on the different sides should be 180°. And, the design with the front and rear legs bent in the same direction has better performance in dynamic responses. The results of this study can serve as a reference for future design and optimization of quadruped walking machines

Enhancing classroom management through parental involvement by using social networking apps

The purpose of this study is to explore the classroom management effectiveness enhancement by using social networking apps through electronic devices such as smartphones, tablet computers, and personal computers, as well as the role of parental involvement. Quantitative research was conducted, and the Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) statistical technique applied. From 15 different Changhua County primary schools in Taiwan, 411 teachers were chosen using stratified random sampling in proportion to the size and location of schools. Each teacher was invited to fill out a questionnaire. A total of 403 (98.05%) questionnaires were returned, with 382 (92.94%) considered valid. In order to confirm the statistical results, a focused group interview was also conducted. The effects of the behaviour intention of using Line, parental involvement, and classroom management effectiveness were all found to be positively associated with one another. Moreover, the mediating role of parents in the relationship between the behaviour intention of using Line and classroom management effectiveness enhancement was also supported and confirmed.Keywords: behaviour intention; classroom management effectiveness; parental involvement; social networking apps; Taiwan’s primary school