Can the Federal Reserve Bank’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions Forecast Land Values?

The value of land dominates the financial structure of most American agricultural production firms, and land values are an important factor in long-term agricultural planning and risk management. As the primary source of collateral for farm loans, farmland values have significant implications for both producers as well as bankers financing agricultural loans. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions is an expert opinion survey in which agricultural bankers provide land value forecasts. As the survey has drawn increased attention, the survey has drawn criticism regarding its use qualitative data to forecast land values. Our research examines the value of the survey data with respect to its ability to forecast movement in land values. Three techniques are used in the analysis. Interpreting the aggregate forecasts as probability estimates, Brier’s probability scores are used to evaluate aggregate bankers’ predictions. Next, turning points are evaluated using contingency tables. Finally, Granger causality tests are used to determine the dynamic relationship between land value predictions and actual land value changes reported by bankers. Bankers’ forecasts predict land values for irrigated and ranchland well, but non-irrigated forecasts were only marginally helpful in prediction non-irrigated farmland values. Forecasts provided in the survey may be beneficial, especially considering the scarcity of other publicly available data.farmland, forecasting, land values, Federal Reserve Bank, Agribusiness, Financial Economics,

Can the Ag Credit Survey predict national credit conditions?

With the farm boom ending in 2009, many farmers have become less able to repay short-term loans. As farm profit margins erode and farm loan delinquencies rise, some in the agricultural industry worry that lending standards will tighten—as they did in the farm debt crisis of the 1980s. ; One barometer of future agricultural credit conditions is agricultural bankers. Experience and access to information give these bankers a unique perspective on agricultural credit conditions. In fact, several Federal Reserve banks survey agricultural bankers in their district to tap this source of information. But how reliable are regional Federal Reserve agricultural credit surveys? And can a regional survey shed light on future loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide? ; Briggeman examines the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions to explore these questions. He concludes that the Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions reliably predicts farm loan repayment rates in the district and provides valuable insight into future farm loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide. The most recent Survey data suggest that the nation’s farm loan delinquencies will continue to rise in the year ahead, which may cause collateral requirements to stay elevated heading into 2010.

Pulsatile atheroprone shear stress affects the expression of transient receptor potential channels in human endothelial cells

The goal of the study was to assess whether pulsatile atheroprone shear stress modulates the expression of transient receptor potential (TRP) channels, TRPC3, TRPC6, TRPM7, and TRPV1 mRNA, in human umbilical vascular endothelial cells. Exposure of cultured vascular endothelial cells to defined shear stress, producing a constant laminar flow (generating a shear stress of 6 dyne/cm 2 ), laminar pulsatile atheroprotective flow (with a mean shear stress of 20 dyne/cm 2 ), or laminar atheroprone bidirectional flow (with a mean shear stress of 0 dyne/cm 2 ) differentially induced TRPC6 and TRPV1 mRNA as measured by quantitative real-time RT-PCR and normalized to GAPDH expression. Thereby, TRPC6 and TRPV1 mRNA expressions were significantly increased after 24 hours of exposure to an atheroprone flow profile compared with an atheroprotective flow profile. Furthermore, the expression of transcription factors GATA1 and GATA4 was significantly correlated with the expression of TRPC6 mRNA. In contrast, after 24 hours of constant laminar flow, the expression of TRPC6 and TRPV1 mRNA was unchanged, whereas the expression of TRPC3 and TRPM7 was significantly higher in endothelial cells exposed to shear stress in comparison with endothelial cells grown under static conditions. There was a significant association between the expression of TRPC6 and tumor necrosis factor-α mRNA in human vascular tissue. No-flow and atheroprone flow conditions are equally characterized by an increase in the expression of tumor necrosis factor-α; however, inflammation-associated endothelial cell reactions may be further aggravated at atheroprone flow conditions by the increase of TRPV1 and TRPC6, as observed in our study. </jats:p

Shear stress-induced angiogenesis in mouse muscle is independent of the vasodilator mechanism and quickly reversible.

Aim: Is modulation of skeletal muscle capillary supply by altering blood flow due to a presumptive shear stress response per se, or dependent on the vasodilator mechanism? Methods: The response to four different vasodilators, and cotreatment with blockers of NO and prostaglandin synthesis, was compared. Femoral artery blood flow was correlated with capillary-to-fibre ratio (C:F) and protein levels of putative angiogenic compounds. Results: All vasodilators induced a similar increase in blood flow after 14 days, with a similar effect on C:F (1.62 ± 0.05, 1.60 ± 0.01, 1.57 ± 0.06, 1.57 ± 0.07, respectively, all P < 0.05 vs. control 1.20 ± 0.01). Concomitant inhibitors revealed differential effects on blood flow and angiogenesis, demonstrating that a similar response may have different signalling origins. The time course of this response with the most commonly used vasodilator, prazosin, showed that blood flow increased from 0.40 mL min−1 to 0.61 mL min−1 by 28 days (P < 0.05), dropped within 1 week after the cessation of treatment (0.54 mL min−1; P < 0.05) and returned to control levels by 6 weeks. In parallel with FBF, capillary rarefaction began within 1 week (P < 0.05), giving C:F values similar to control by 2 weeks. Of the dominant signalling pathways, prazosin decreased muscle VEGF, but increased its cognate receptor Flk-1 (both P < 0.01); levels of eNOS varied with blood flow (P < 0.05), and Ang-1 initially increased, while its receptor Tie-2 was unchanged, with only modest changes in the antiangiogenic factor TSP-1. Conclusion: Hyperaemia-induced angiogenesis, likely in response to elevated shear stress, is independent of the vasodilator involved, with a rapid induction and quick regression following the stimulus withdrawal

Comparison of Alternative Sources of Farmland Values

Consistent and reliable data on farmland values is critical to assessing the overall financial health of agricultural producers. However, little is known about the idiosyncrasies and similarities of standard land value data sources – U.S. Department of Agriculture, Federal Reserve Bank land value surveys, and transaction prices. All three data sources are highly correlated, but transaction prices tend to be higher, especially for irrigated cropland and ranchland. USDA land values are reported as representing land values on January first, but instead they more closely represent first and second quarter land values according to a multi-state comparison to changes in quarterly Federal Reserve land values. Given the finding that first quarter Federal Reserve Bank land values lead USDA land values and that they are published before the USDA release, Federal Reserve land values are a timely indicator of agricultural producers’ financial position.Land Economics/Use,

The Methyltransferase Smyd1 Mediates LPS-Triggered Up-Regulation of IL-6 in Endothelial Cells

The lysine methyltransferase Smyd1 with its characteristic catalytic SET-domain is highly enriched in the embryonic heart and skeletal muscles, participating in cardiomyogenesis, sarcomere assembly and chromatin remodeling. Recently, significant Smyd1 levels were discovered in endothelial cells (ECs) that responded to inflammatory cytokines. Based on these biochemical properties, we hypothesized that Smyd1 is involved in inflammation-triggered signaling in ECs and therefore, investigated its role within the LPS-induced signaling cascade. Human endothelial cells (HUVECs and EA.hy926 cells) responded to LPS stimulation with higher intrinsic Smyd1 expression. By transfection with expression vectors containing gene inserts encoding either intact Smyd1, a catalytically inactive Smyd1-mutant or Smyd1-specific siRNAs, we show that Smyd1 contributes to LPS-triggered expression and secretion of IL-6 in EA.hy926 cells. Further molecular analysis revealed this process to be based on two signaling pathways: Smyd1 increased the activity of NF-kappa B and promoted the trimethylation of lysine-4 of histone-3 (H3K4me3) within the IL-6 promoter, as shown by ChIP-RT-qPCR combined with IL-6-promoter-driven luciferase reporter gene assays. In summary, our experimental analysis revealed that LPS-binding to ECs leads to the up-regulation of Smyd1 expression to transduce the signal for IL-6 up-regulation via activation of the established NF-κB pathway as well as via epigenetic trimethylation of H3K4