An autoregressive approach to house price modeling

A statistical model for predicting individual house prices and constructing a house price index is proposed utilizing information regarding sale price, time of sale and location (ZIP code). This model is composed of a fixed time effect and a random ZIP (postal) code effect combined with an autoregressive component. The former two components are applied to all home sales, while the latter is applied only to homes sold repeatedly. The time effect can be converted into a house price index. To evaluate the proposed model and the resulting index, single-family home sales for twenty US metropolitan areas from July 1985 through September 2004 are analyzed. The model is shown to have better predictive abilities than the benchmark S&P/Case--Shiller model, which is a repeat sales model, and a conventional mixed effects model. Finally, Los Angeles, CA, is used to illustrate a historical housing market downturn.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS380 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Trapping radioactive ^{82}Rb in an optical dipole trap and evidence of spontaneous spin polarization

Optical trapping of selected species of radioactive atoms has great potential in precision measurements for testing fundamental physics such as EDM, PNC and parity violating beta-decay asymmetry correlation coefficients. We report trapping of 10^4 radioactive ^{82}Rb atoms (t_{1/2}=75 s) with a trap lifetime of ~55 seconds in an optical dipole trap. Transfer efficiency from the magneto-optical trap was ~14%. We further report the evidence of spontaneous spin polarization of the atoms in optical dipole trap loading. This advancement is an important step towards a new generation of precision J-beta correlations measurements with polarized ^{82}Rb atoms.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Using transfer ratio to evaluate EMC design of adjustable speed drive systems

This paper proposes a way to evaluate the conducted electromagnetic compatibility performance of variable speed drive systems. It is considered that the measured noise level is determined by two factors, the level of the noise source and the conversion efficiency of the propagation path from the source to the measurement equipments. They are corresponding to the two roles played by the converter. On the one hand, a converter provides the noise source and generates the noise current and voltage on the motor side with the cable and the motor. On the other hand, it acts as the propagation path with the DC bus and the rectifier to spread the noise generated on the motor side to the line side. The transfer ratio is defined as the ratio between the CM current on the motor side and the CM current on the line side. It can be used to evaluate the EMC design of a converter because it is independent of the cable and the motor. A simplified model is used to explain this characteristic. It can be measured when the converter is powered off. Verification is carried out by experimental results obtained from a 12-kVA laboratory system.\u

Intrinsic Percolative Superconductivity in Heavily Overdoped High Temperature Superconductors

Magnetic measurements on heavily overdoped $La_{2-x}Sr_xCuO_4$, $Tl_2Ba_2CuO_6$, $Bi_2Sr_2CuO_6$ and $Bi_2Sr_2CaCu_2O_8$ single crystals reveal a new type magnetization hysteresis loops characterized by the vanishing of usual central peak near zero field. Since this effect has been observed in various systems with very different structural details, it reflects probably a generic behavior for all high temperature superconductors. This easy penetration of magnetic flux can be understood in the picture of percolative superconductivity due to the inhomogeneous electronic state in heavily overdoped regime.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Modelling of Electroluminescence in Polymers Using a Bipolar Charge Transport Model

Electroluminescence (EL) in polymeric materials is thought to occur due to the energy dissipation process from the recombination of opposite polarity charge carriers. It is considered as an indication of storage and transport of charge carriers in cable insulation subject to electrical stresses and may indicate the change in charge movement due to aging or degradation processes. Under ac electric fields, the interaction of opposite polarity charge carriers at the interface of polymer/conductor is enhanced compared with dc conditions, and seems to contribute a lot to the electroluminescence rather than the charge behaviours in the bulk of polymers. The dynamics of charge carriers both at the interface of polymer/conductor and in the bulk of polymers is investigated through a simulation work using a bipolar charge transport model. Figure 1 compares experimental electroluminescence results with simulated data from the recombination of injected charge carriers. The paper will give more details on EL model and comparison under various waveforms and frequencies

Do Newton's G and Milgrom's a_0 vary with cosmological epoch ?

In the scalar tensor gravitational theories Newton's constant G_N evolves in the expanding universe. Likewise, it has been speculated that the acceleration scale a_0 in Milgrom's modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) is tied to the scale of the cosmos, and must thus evolve. With the advent of relativistic implementations of the modified dynamics, one can address the issue of variability of the two gravitational ''constants'' with some confidence. Using TeVeS, the Tensor-Vector-Scalar gravitational theory, as an implementation of MOND, we calculate the dependence of G_N and a_0 on the TeVeS parameters and the coeval cosmological value of its scalar field, \phi_c. We find that G_N, when expressed in atomic units, is strictly nonevolving, a result fully consistent with recent empirical limits on the variation of G_N. By contrast, we find that a_0 depends on \phi_c and may thus vary with cosmological epoch. However, for the brand of TeVeS which seems most promising, a_0 variation occurs on a timescale much longer than Hubble's, and should be imperceptible back to redshift unity or even beyond it. This is consistent with emergent data on the rotation curves of disk galaxies at significants redshifts.Comment: 9 pages, RevTe