The economic impact of COVID-19 on the EU: From the frying pan into the fire. EPC Discussion Paper 23 April 2020

For the time being, the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will, for obvious reasons related to the devastating effects of the virus, continue to be at the forefront of public policy. However, the concerns over its economic impact are already omnipresent, too. One of the great uncertainties of this crisis is the nature of its long-term economic impact. It will most certainly be bad, and almost certainly be worse than the financial and economic crisis of a decade ago, with many referring to the Great Depression of the 1930s

Development of a thin-film space-charge- limited triode Final report, Mar. 1965 - Jun. 1966

Development of thin film space charge limited triod

COVID-19: Lessons from the ‘euro crisis’. EPC Discussion Paper 16 April 2020

The coronavirus is an unprecedented external shock that is challenging the EU and its member states. The crisis is fundamental, posing a dramatic threat to public health and the life of citizens. Everyone is affected by the imposition of restrictive measures aiming to contain the spread of the virus. Efforts to flatten the curve have severely hit our economies and will require unparalleled monetary and fiscal measures by central banks and governments

Reality bites: the Brexit negotiations seen from the other side of the Channel. EPC Commentary, 24 July 2017

The Brexit negotiations continued this week with the UK government still insisting that the endpoint be an exit from the EU, including its Customs Union and the Single Market. But back in Britain, the turmoil is obvious, with different members of government taking diverging views, suggesting, at times, that a soft Brexit or a transition arrangement might be possible, even if it means concessions on the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), the exit payment, the rights of EU citizens and even (temporarily) continued freedom of movement of EU citizens

What kind of Brexit? EPC Commentary, 4 November 2016

The ruling of the High Court in the UK has rekindled hope for the opponents of Brexit. Some are envisaging a rejection of Brexit by Westminster, a general election that will return a strong Remain vote or even a new referendum, reversing the result of the first one. This ruling is not yet the final decision: an appeal to the Supreme Court seems certain. But even if it is upheld, the most likely final destination is still a hard Brexit

Britain outside Europe? Fewer EU concessions to UK post-Brexit. EPC Commentary, 12 May 2014

Despite their differences and the difficulties in the EU-UK relationship, the UK has played a significant role in many areas of EU integration for more than 40 years. While determining the exact impact of a British withdrawal from the EU is difficult, one can list a number of areas in which undoubtedly Brexit would have a profoundly negative impact on the EU, and an even greater negative impact on the UK itself. Brexit would also radically change the way the EU functions by changing the EU’s main institutions, creating a series of alterations that would not in the end necessarily be wholly detrimental to the union

What kind of divorce: a clean, hard Brexit or a messy, confrontational Brexfast? EPC Commentary, 9 March 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May is attending her final European Union (EU) Summit before the Article 50 negotiations are triggered, almost nine months after the referendum vote. The perceived wisdom is that the proceeding by which United Kingdom (UK) will leave the EU will take at least the two years specified in the EU Treaties, with some arguing that this period might have to be extended (which would need to be decided unanimously by the EU27), given the sheer difficulty and scope of issues that will need to be resolved. However, such an extension seems rather unlikely in light of the required unanimity, unless it is a purely technical provision to allow for the ratification of a deal already reached or to conclude on some of the finer details

The UK renegotiation from an EU perspective: the dog that hasn’t yet barked? EPC Commentary, 20 November 2015

Given the potential impact on the EU, the UK‘s in/out referendum and the associated reform agenda should be high up the Brussels agenda. But, curiously, so far there has been little obvious activity in Brussels, with few signs that it has the attention of the EU leadership. During the October Summit there was only a very short discussion of the UK referendum, with David Cameron pledging to set out the UK’s specific issues to be addressed (the EU reform agenda) in writing to President Tusk by early November, which he duly did on 10 November

Brexit: Stumbling over the backstop? EPC Commentary 6 June 2018

Approaching the June European Summit, it is becoming clearer by the day that the UK is not ready yet to move forward substantively. But postponing critical decisions to October increases the risk of no deal despite the dire warnings of leaked Whitehall advice that it could mean shortages of food, fuel and medicine. Business investment is already being hit, and companies are demanding more clarity, especially on the future customs and trading arrangements

The road to nowhere? Prospects for a post-Brexit trade deal. EPC Policy Brief, 18 September 2018

The Brexit negotiations continue towards an inevitable showdown, most probably at the EU Summit in December 2018. Faced with a choice between the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and a ‘no-deal’ scenario, the United Kingdom will – most likely – choose not to commit economic suicide. The transition period, which will be included in the WA, will buy some time to negotiate the post-Brexit relationship. However, the next phase of negotiations will not be any easier: the UK and the EU will find it virtually impossible to agree on a trade deal. As a consequence, at the end of the transition period, the cliff edge will loom again. But there is an alternative – not to leave the Single Market and Customs Union after al