Is There Seasonality in Pakistan’s Merchandise Exports and Imports? The Univariate Modelling Approach

This paper investigates the existence of seasonal patterns in the quarterly merchandise export and import data of Pakistan from 1982: 1 to 2002: 1. Unit root tests are applied to determine whether the seasonal component in each variable exhibits stochastic non-stationarity. Deterministic and stochastic effects are isolated and quantified. Few alternate DGP specifications are identified, fitted and tested for their outof- sample forecasting performance. A tentative finding is that deterministic effects are relatively more important than stochastic ones. However, integrated models, i.e., ARIMA, mixed ARIMA, and ARIMA-GARCH, outperform deterministic models with respect to forecasting

Mutations of fake weighted projective planes

In previous work by Coates, Galkin, and the authors, the notion of mutation between lattice polytopes was introduced. Such a mutation gives rise to a deformation between the corresponding toric varieties. In this paper we study one-step mutations that correspond to deformations between weighted projective planes, giving a complete characterisation of such mutations in terms of T-singularities. We show also that the weights involved satisfy Diophantine equations, generalising results of Hacking-Prokhorov.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figure

Poverty Alleviation on a Sustainable Basis in the Islamic Framework

Allah (SWT) is the sole creator of this vast universe and whatever it contains. He created man as a master piece of His creation and elevated him to be His vicegerent on earth. He made all physical systems and other creations to cater human needs from the time immoral. And those holding political power in Muslim countries under Islamic teachings are required to make necessary arrangements for the satisfaction of his material needs through efficient utilisation of resources and equitable distribution of goods and services and also to fully protect him from all kinds of fear besides the fear of starvation. There is ample evidence in Quran, Sunnah, and practice of Caliphs to provide food as well as social security to each and every individual in an Islamic economy. Pointing to this fact, an Ayah of Quran enjoying upon Quraish to worship Allah because He has protected them both from starvation and fear by granting them food and peace. Similarly a Hadith says that a society where a Muslim has to starve is forsaken by Allah. The first four Caliphs were fully conscious of their obligation towards meeting the needs of poor. Hazrat Umar (RA) declared, “if a camel dies at the bank of Euphrates, I am afraid Allah would make me accountable for it”. The overwhelming stress on satisfaction of basic needs and social security both of current and future generations leaves no justification for the prevalence of widespread poverty in Islamic framework. As a matter of fact, Islam and absolute poverty cannot persist together.

Molecular Bio-imprinting of Biocatalysts

Energy conservation is the cry of the day. Attempts are made all over the world to occupy and use energy reserves. Increased industrialization and mechanization has led to the depletion of natural energy reserves. Its unavoidable to search for renewable sources of energy, which may be not used now but can be used by future generations. We are using the expertise of our ancestors. Thus exploiting the nature and newer techniques in this area would yield the best results. Bio-imprinting is one of those techniques whereby chemical modification is done in order to achieve highly expressed protein which can be stored in its highly active form in the specific solvent

X-efficiency Analysis of Commercial Banks in Pakistan: A Preliminary Investigation

The emergence of a fast-paced dynamic environment in the business world in general, and in the financial services sector in particular, has highlighted the significance of competition and efficiency. The need for deregulation has become a touchstone of success in fostering both competition and efficiency especially in the economies, which are exposed to structural reforms. In addition to that, intense competition both among domestic and foreign banks, rapid speed of innovations and introduction of new financial instruments, changing consumer’s demands and desire for product augmentation have changed the way a bank conducts business and services its customers. Larger the degree of competition, it is perceived that the firms would become more efficient. However, when the structure of an industry is product of the government regulations, the degree of competition is impaired markedly implying that the efficiency suffers negatively. Banking industry acts as life-blood of modern trade and commerce acting as a bridge to provide a major source of financial intermediation. Thus, appraisal of its efficiency is vital in context of an efficient and competitive financial system. Study of x-efficiency is believed to be important in particular as Berger, et al. (1993) found that x-inefficiencies account for around 20 percent or more of banking costs. Similarly, recent drive among banks towards downsizing, rightsizing and rationalisation of banking costs also implicates for the assessment of x-efficiency analysis of banks. It becomes vital in Pakistani context as there appears to be no study in literature on efficiency or x-efficiency analysis of banks in Pakistan. “A great deal more work is needed on x-efficiency research in banking. Managerial efficiency, the concept of x-efficiency, appears to be a much more important strategic and policy consideration” [Molyneux, et al. (1960), p. 273]. Given