Relationship between molecular pathogen detection and clinical disease in febrile children across Europe: a multicentre, prospective observational study

Background: The PERFORM study aimed to understand causes of febrile childhood illness by comparing molecular pathogen detection with current clinical practice. Methods: Febrile children and controls were recruited on presentation to hospital in 9 European countries 2016–2020. Each child was assigned a standardized diagnostic category based on retrospective review of local clinical and microbiological data. Subsequently, centralised molecular tests (CMTs) for 19 respiratory and 27 blood pathogens were performed. Findings: Of 4611 febrile children, 643 (14%) were classified as definite bacterial infection (DB), 491 (11%) as definite viral infection (DV), and 3477 (75%) had uncertain aetiology. 1061 controls without infection were recruited. CMTs detected blood bacteria more frequently in DB than DV cases for N. meningitidis (OR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.92–5.99), S. pneumoniae (OR: 3.89, 95% CI: 2.07–7.59), Group A streptococcus (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.13–6.09) and E. coli (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.02–6.71). Respiratory viruses were more common in febrile children than controls, but only influenza A (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11–0.46), influenza B (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02–0.37) and RSV (OR 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06–0.36) were less common in DB than DV cases. Of 16 blood viruses, enterovirus (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23–0.72) and EBV (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56–0.90) were detected less often in DB than DV cases. Combined local diagnostics and CMTs respectively detected blood viruses and respiratory viruses in 360 (56%) and 161 (25%) of DB cases, and virus detection ruled-out bacterial infection poorly, with predictive values of 0.64 and 0.68 respectively. Interpretation: Most febrile children cannot be conclusively defined as having bacterial or viral infection when molecular tests supplement conventional approaches. Viruses are detected in most patients with bacterial infections, and the clinical value of individual pathogen detection in determining treatment is low. New approaches are needed to help determine which febrile children require antibiotics. Funding: EU Horizon 2020 grant 668303

Variation in antibiotic prescription rates in febrile children presenting to emergency departments across Europe (MOFICHE): A multicentre observational study

Background The prescription rate of antibiotics is high for febrile children visiting the emergency department (ED), contributing to antimicrobial resistance. Large studies at European EDs covering diversity in antibiotic and broad-spectrum prescriptions in all febrile children are lacking. A better understanding of variability in antibiotic prescriptions in EDs and its relation with viral or bacterial disease is essential for the development and implementation of interventions to optimise antibiotic use. As part of the PERFORM (Personalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union) project, the MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in Children in Europe) study aims to investigate variation and appropriateness of antibiotic prescription in febrile children visiting EDs in Europe. Methods and findings Between January 2017 and April 2018, data were prospectively collected on febrile children aged 0–18 years presenting to 12 EDs in 8 European countries (Austria, Germany, Greece, Latvia, the Netherlands [n = 3], Spain, Slovenia, United Kingdom [n = 3]). These EDs were based in university hospitals (n = 9) or large teaching hospitals (n = 3). Main outcomes were (1) antibiotic prescription rate; (2) the proportion of antibiotics that were broad-spectrum antibiotics; (3) the proportion of antibiotics of appropriate indication (presumed bacterial), inappropriate indication (presumed viral), or inconclusive indication (unknown bacterial/viral or other); (4) the proportion of oral antibiotics of inappropriate duration; and (5) the proportion of antibiotics that were guideline-concordant in uncomplicated urinary and upper and lower respiratory tract infections (RTIs). We determined variation of antibiotic prescription and broad-spectrum prescription by calculating standardised prescription rates using multilevel logistic regression and adjusted for general characteristics (e.g., age, sex, comorbidity, referral), disease severity (e.g., triage level, fever duration, presence of alarming signs), use and result of diagnostics, and focus and cause of infection. In this analysis of 35,650 children (median age 2.8 years, 55% male), overall antibiotic prescription rate was 31.9% (range across EDs: 22.4%–41.6%), and among those prescriptions, the broad-spectrum antibiotic prescription rate was 52.1% (range across EDs: 33.0%–90.3%). After standardisation, differences in antibiotic prescriptions ranged from 0.8 to 1.4, and the ratio between broad-spectrum and narrow-spectrum prescriptions ranged from 0.7 to 1.8 across EDs. Standardised antibiotic prescription rates varied for presumed bacterial infections (0.9 to 1.1), presumed viral infections (0.1 to 3.3), and infections of unknown cause (0.1 to 1.8). In all febrile children, antibiotic prescriptions were appropriate in 65.0% of prescriptions, inappropriate in 12.5% (range across EDs: 0.6%–29.3%), and inconclusive in 22.5% (range across EDs: 0.4%–60.8%). Prescriptions were of inappropriate duration in 20% of oral prescriptions (range across EDs: 4.4%–59.0%). Oral prescriptions were not concordant with the local guideline in 22.3% (range across EDs: 11.8%–47.3%) of prescriptions in uncomplicated RTIs and in 45.1% (range across EDs: 11.1%–100%) of prescriptions in uncomplicated urinary tract infections. A limitation of our study is that the included EDs are not representative of all febrile children attending EDs in that country. Conclusions In this study, we observed wide variation between European EDs in prescriptions of antibiotics and broad-spectrum antibiotics in febrile children. Overall, one-third of prescriptions were inappropriate or inconclusive, with marked variation between EDs. Until better diagnostics are available to accurately differentiate between bacterial and viral aetiologies, implementation of antimicrobial stewardship guidelines across Europe is necessary to limit antimicrobial resistance

A Novel Framework for Phenotyping Children With Suspected or Confirmed Infection for Future Biomarker Studies

Background: The limited diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers in children at risk of a serious bacterial infection (SBI) might be due to the imperfect reference standard of SBI. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of a new classification algorithm for biomarker discovery in children at risk of SBI. Methods: We used data from five previously published, prospective observational biomarker discovery studies, which included patients aged 0– <16 years: the Alder Hey emergency department (n = 1,120), Alder Hey pediatric intensive care unit (n = 355), Erasmus emergency department (n = 1,993), Maasstad emergency department (n = 714) and St. Mary's hospital (n = 200) cohorts. Biomarkers including procalcitonin (PCT) (4 cohorts), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin-2 (NGAL) (3 cohorts) and resistin (2 cohorts) were compared for their ability to classify patients according to current standards (dichotomous classification of SBI vs. non-SBI), vs. a proposed PERFORM classification algorithm that assign patients to one of eleven categories. These categories were based on clinical phenotype, test outcomes and C-reactive protein level and accounted for the uncertainty of final diagnosis in many febrile children. The success of the biomarkers was measured by the Area under the receiver operating Curves (AUCs) when they were used individually or in combination. Results: Using the new PERFORM classification system, patients with clinically confident bacterial diagnosis (“definite bacterial” category) had significantly higher levels of PCT, NGAL and resistin compared with those with a clinically confident viral diagnosis (“definite viral” category). Patients with diagnostic uncertainty had biomarker concentrations that varied across the spectrum. AUCs were higher for classification of “definite bacterial” vs. “definite viral” following the PERFORM algorithm than using the “SBI” vs. “non-SBI” classification; summary AUC for PCT was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.65–0.75); for NGAL this was 0.80 (95% CI 0.69–0.91) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.58–0.81); for resistin this was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61–0.75) vs. 0.64 (0.58–0.69) The three biomarkers combined had summary AUC of 0.83 (0.77–0.89) for “definite bacterial” vs. “definite viral” infections and 0.71 (0.67–0.74) for “SBI” vs. “non-SBI.” Conclusion: Biomarkers of bacterial infection were strongly associated with the diagnostic categories using the PERFORM classification system in five independent cohorts. Our proposed algorithm provides a novel framework for phenotyping children with suspected or confirmed infection for future biomarker studies

Guideline adherence in febrile children below 3 months visiting European Emergency Departments: an observational multicenter study

Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment. There is practice variation in management due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence. We aimed to assess whether management in febrile children below 3 months attending European Emergency Departments (EDs) was according to the guidelines for fever. This study is part of the MOFICHE study, which is an observational multicenter study including routine data of febrile children (0–18 years) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. In febrile children below 3 months (excluding bronchiolitis), we analyzed actual management compared to the guidelines for fever. Ten EDs applied the (adapted) NICE guideline, and two EDs applied local guidelines. Management included diagnostic tests, antibiotic treatment, and admission. We included 913 children with a median age of 1.7 months (IQR 1.0–2.3). Management per ED varied as follows: use of diagnostic tests 14–83%, antibiotic treatment 23–54%, admission 34–86%. Adherence to the guideline was 43% (374/868) for blood cultures, 29% (144/491) for lumbar punctures, 55% (270/492) for antibiotic prescriptions, and 67% (573/859) for admission. Full adherence to these four management components occurred in 15% (132/868, range 0–38%), partial adherence occurred in 56% (484/868, range 35–77%). Conclusion: There is large practice variation in management. The guideline adherence was limited, but highest for admission which implies a cautious approach. Future studies should focus on guideline revision including new biomarkers in order to optimize management in young febrile children.What is Known:• Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment.• There is practice variation in management of young febrile children due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence.What is New:• Full guideline adherence is limited, whereas partial guideline adherence is moderate in febrile children below 3 months across Europe.• Guideline revision including new biomarkers is needed to improve management in young febrile children

A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department: a European multicentre observational study of febrile children

Background: Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow. Methods: The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0–18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Findings: Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84). The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0.95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use. Interpretation: Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow. Funding: European Union, NIHR, NHS

European study confirms the combination of fever and petechial rash as an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis

Aim: This study investigated febrile children with petechial rashes who presented to European emergency departments (EDs) and investigated the role that mechanical causes played in diagnoses. Methods: Consecutive patients with fever presenting to EDs in 11 European emergency departments in 2017–2018 were enrolled. The cause and focus of infection were identified and a detailed analysis was performed on children with petechial rashes. The results are presented as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: We found that 453/34010 (1.3%) febrile children had petechial rashes. The focus of the infection included sepsis (10/453, 2.2%) and meningitis (14/453, 3.1%). Children with a petechial rash were more likely than other febrile children to have sepsis or meningitis (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.3–13.1) and bacterial infections (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0–1.8) as well as need for immediate life-saving interventions (OR 6.6, 95% CI 4.4–9.5) and intensive care unit admissions (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.0–12.5). Conclusion: The combination of fever and petechial rash is still an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis. Ruling out coughing and/or vomiting was insufficient to safely identify low-risk patients

European study confirms the combination of fever and petechial rash as an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis

Funding Information: This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 668303. The research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at Imperial College London, Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.AIM: This study investigated febrile children with petechial rashes who presented to European emergency departments (EDs) and investigated the role that mechanical causes played in diagnoses. METHODS: Consecutive patients with fever presenting to EDs in 11 European emergency departments in 2017-2018 were enrolled. The cause and focus of infection were identified and a detailed analysis was performed on children with petechial rashes. The results are presented as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We found that 453/34,010 (1.3%) febrile children had petechial rashes. The focus of the infection included sepsis (10/453, 2.2%) and meningitis (14/453, 3.1%). Children with a petechial rash were more likely than other febrile children to have sepsis or meningitis (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.3-13.1) and bacterial infections (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.8) as well as need for immediate life-saving interventions (OR 6.6, 95% CI 4.4-9.5) and intensive care unit admissions (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.0-12.5). CONCLUSION: The combination of fever and petechial rash is still an important warning sign for childhood sepsis and meningitis. Ruling out coughing and/or vomiting was insufficient to safely identify low-risk patients.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Which low urgent triaged febrile children are suitable for a fast track? : An observational European study

Publisher Copyright: © 2024 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.Background The number of paediatric patients visiting the ED with non-urgent problems is increasing, leading to poor patient flow and ED crowding. Fast track aims to improve the efficiency of evaluation and discharge of low acuity patients. We aimed to identify which febrile children are suitable for a fast track based on presenting symptoms and management. Methods This study is part of the Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe study, which is an observational study including routine data of febrile children <18 years attending 12 European EDs. We included febrile, low urgent children (those assigned a triage acuity of either’standard’ or’non-urgent’ using the Manchester Triage System) and defined children as suitable for fast track when they have minimal resource use and are discharged home. Presenting symptoms consisted of neurological (n=237), respiratory (n=8476), gastrointestinal (n=1953) and others (n=3473, reference group). Multivariable logistic regression analyses regarding presenting symptoms and management (laboratory blood testing, imaging and admission) were performed with adjustment for covariates: patient characteristics, referral status, previous medical care, previous antibiotic use, visiting hours and ED setting. Results We included 14 139 children with a median age of 2.7 years (IQR 1.3–5.2). The majority had respiratory symptoms (60%), viral infections (50%) and consisted of self-referrals (69%). The neurological group received imaging more often (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.9) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.7). The respiratory group had fewer laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), were less frequently admitted (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), but received imaging more often (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.0). Lastly, the gastrointestinal group had more laboratory blood tests performed (aOR 1.2. 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4) and were admitted more frequently (aOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.6). Conclusion We determined that febrile children triaged as low urgent with respiratory symptoms were most suitable for a fast track. This study provides evidence for which children could be triaged to a fast track, potentially improving overall patient flow at the ED.Peer reviewe

Guideline adherence in febrile children below 3 months visiting European Emergency Departments : an observational multicenter study

Funding Information: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 848196. The Research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at Imperial College London, Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. For the remaining authors, no sources of funding were declared. The funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment. There is practice variation in management due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence. We aimed to assess whether management in febrile children below 3 months attending European Emergency Departments (EDs) was according to the guidelines for fever. This study is part of the MOFICHE study, which is an observational multicenter study including routine data of febrile children (0–18 years) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. In febrile children below 3 months (excluding bronchiolitis), we analyzed actual management compared to the guidelines for fever. Ten EDs applied the (adapted) NICE guideline, and two EDs applied local guidelines. Management included diagnostic tests, antibiotic treatment, and admission. We included 913 children with a median age of 1.7 months (IQR 1.0–2.3). Management per ED varied as follows: use of diagnostic tests 14–83%, antibiotic treatment 23–54%, admission 34–86%. Adherence to the guideline was 43% (374/868) for blood cultures, 29% (144/491) for lumbar punctures, 55% (270/492) for antibiotic prescriptions, and 67% (573/859) for admission. Full adherence to these four management components occurred in 15% (132/868, range 0–38%), partial adherence occurred in 56% (484/868, range 35–77%). Conclusion: There is large practice variation in management. The guideline adherence was limited, but highest for admission which implies a cautious approach. Future studies should focus on guideline revision including new biomarkers in order to optimize management in young febrile children.What is Known:• Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment.• There is practice variation in management of young febrile children due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence.What is New:• Full guideline adherence is limited, whereas partial guideline adherence is moderate in febrile children below 3 months across Europe.• Guideline revision including new biomarkers is needed to improve management in young febrile children.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Emergency medical services utilisation among febrile children attending emergency departments across Europe : an observational multicentre study

Funding Information: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 848196. CT received an additional funding from Stichting Erasmus Trustfonds. The Research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at Imperial College London, Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, and Newcastle University. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health. For the remaining authors, no sources of funding were declared. The funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).Children constitute 6–10% of all patients attending the emergency department (ED) by emergency medical services (EMS). However, discordant EMS use in children occurs in 37–61% with fever as an important risk factor. We aimed to describe EMS utilisation among febrile children attending European EDs. This study is part of an observational multicentre study assessing management and outcome in febrile children up to 18 years (MOFICHE) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. Discordant EMS use was defined as the absence of markers of urgency including intermediate/high triage urgency, advanced diagnostics, treatment, and admission in children transferred by EMS. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between (1) EMS use and markers of urgency, and (2) patient characteristics and discordant EMS use after adjusting all analyses for the covariates age, gender, visiting hours, presenting symptoms, and ED setting. A total of 5464 (15%, range 0.1–42%) children attended the ED by EMS. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in the EMS group compared with the non-EMS group. Discordant EMS use occurred in 1601 children (29%, range 1–59%). Age and gender were not associated with discordant EMS use, whereas neurological symptoms were associated with less discordant EMS use (aOR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1–0.2), and attendance out of office hours was associated with more discordant EMS use (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.4–1.9). Settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED had more discordant EMS use (p < 0.05). Conclusion: There is large practice variation in EMS use in febrile children attending European EDs. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in children in the EMS group. However, discordant EMS use occurred in 29%. Further research is needed on non-medical factors influencing discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe, so that pre-emptive strategies can be implemented. What is Known: •Children constitute around 6–10% of all patients attending the emergency department by emergency medical services. •Discordant EMS use occurs in 37–61% of all children, with fever as most common presenting symptom for discordant EMS use in children. What is New: •There is large practice variation in EMS use among febrile children across Europe with discordance EMS use occurring in 29% (range 1–59%), which was associated with attendance during out of office hours and with settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED. •Future research is needed focusing on non-medical factors (socioeconomic status, parental preferences and past experience, healthcare systems, referral pathways, out of hours services provision) that influence discordant EMS use in febrile children across Europe.Peer reviewe