British economic growth and the business cycle, 1700-1870 : annual estimates

This paper provides the first annual GDP series for Great Britain over the period 1700-1870. The series is constructed in real terms from the output side, using volume indicators and value added weights. Sectoral estimates are provided for agriculture, industry and services, and for a number of sub-sectors. Estimates of nominal GDP are also provided, based on a benchmark for 1841 and projected back to 1700 and forward to 1870 using the real output series and sectoral price indices. The new data are used to provide a consistent account of economic growth and the business cycle. The results are broadly consistent with the long run path of real output suggested by Crafts and Harley, although growth rates for sub-periods differ, largely as a result of changes in the growth of agriculture. Nominal GDP increased more rapidly than suggested by Lindert and Williamson during the eighteenth century, and more slowly than suggested by Deane and Cole during the first half of the nineteenth century, as a result of differences in the price indices. We also refine the business cycle chronologies of Ashton and Gayer, Rostow and Schwartz

Learning what matters - Sampling interesting patterns

In the field of exploratory data mining, local structure in data can be described by patterns and discovered by mining algorithms. Although many solutions have been proposed to address the redundancy problems in pattern mining, most of them either provide succinct pattern sets or take the interests of the user into account-but not both. Consequently, the analyst has to invest substantial effort in identifying those patterns that are relevant to her specific interests and goals. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines pattern sampling with interactive data mining. In particular, we introduce the LetSIP algorithm, which builds upon recent advances in 1) weighted sampling in SAT and 2) learning to rank in interactive pattern mining. Specifically, it exploits user feedback to directly learn the parameters of the sampling distribution that represents the user's interests. We compare the performance of the proposed algorithm to the state-of-the-art in interactive pattern mining by emulating the interests of a user. The resulting system allows efficient and interleaved learning and sampling, thus user-specific anytime data exploration. Finally, LetSIP demonstrates favourable trade-offs concerning both quality-diversity and exploitation-exploration when compared to existing methods.Comment: PAKDD 2017, extended versio

Strongly coupled modes in a weakly driven micromechanical resonator

We demonstrate strong coupling between the flexural vibration modes of a clamped-clamped micromechanical resonator vibrating at low amplitudes. This coupling enables the direct measurement of the frequency response via amplitude- and phase modulation schemes using the fundamental mode as a mechanical detector. In the linear regime, a frequency shift of $\mathrm{0.8\,Hz}$ is observed for a mode with a line width of $\mathrm{5.8\,Hz}$ in vacuum. The measured response is well-described by the analytical model based on the Euler-Bernoulli beam including tension. Calculations predict an upper limit for the room-temperature Q-factor of $\mathrm{4.5\times10^5}$ for our top-down fabricated micromechanical beam resonators.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure

From Hipparcos to Gaia

The measurement of the positions, distances, motions and luminosities of stars represents the foundations of modern astronomical knowledge. Launched at the end of the eighties, the ESA Hipparcos satellite was the first space mission dedicated to such measurements. Hipparcos improved position accuracies by a factor of 100 compared to typical ground-based results and provided astrometric and photometric multi-epoch observations of 118,000 stars over the entire sky. The impact of Hipparcos on astrophysics has been extremely valuable and diverse. Building on this important European success, the ESA Gaia cornerstone mission promises an even more impressive advance. Compared to Hipparcos, it will bring a gain of a factor 50 to 100 in position accuracy and of a factor of 10,000 in star number, collecting photometric, spectrophotometric and spectroscopic data for one billion celestial objects. During its 5-year flight, Gaia will measure objects repeatedly, up to a few hundred times, providing an unprecedented database to study the variability of all types of celestial objects. Gaia will bring outstanding contributions, directly or indirectly, to most fields of research in astrophysics, such as the study of our Galaxy and of its stellar constituents, the search for planets outside the solar system.Comment: 6 pages. New Horizons in Time Domain Astronomy Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 285, 2012, E. Griffin, B. Hanisch & R. Seaman, ed

Contribution of postnatal collagen reorientation to depth-dependent mechanical properties of articular cartilage

The collagen fibril network is an important factor for the depth-dependent mechanical behaviour of adult articular cartilage (AC). Recent studies show that collagen orientation is parallel to the articular surface throughout the tissue depth in perinatal animals, and that the collagen orientations transform to a depth-dependent arcade-like structure in adult animals. Current understanding on the mechanobiology of postnatal AC development is incomplete. In the current paper, we investigate the contribution of collagen fibril orientation changes to the depth-dependent mechanical properties of AC. We use a composition-based finite element model to simulate in a 1-D confined compression geometry the effects of ten different collagen orientation patterns that were measured in developing sheep. In initial postnatal life, AC is mostly subject to growth and we observe only small changes in depth-dependent mechanical behaviour. Functional adaptation of depth-dependent mechanical behaviour of AC takes place in the second half of life before puberty. Changes in fibril orientation alone increase cartilage stiffness during development through the modulation of swelling strains and osmotic pressures. Changes in stiffness are most pronounced for small stresses and for cartilage adjacent to the bone. We hypothesize that postnatal changes in collagen fibril orientation induce mechanical effects that in turn promote these changes. We further hypothesize that a part of the depth-dependent postnatal increase in collagen content in literature is initiated by the depth-dependent postnatal increase in fibril strain due to collagen fibril reorientatio

Measuring the impact of observations on the predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a shallow-water model

In this paper sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on a ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). This particle filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows us to determine the predictive power — an entropy based measure — of the ensemble prediction. The proposed set-up makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a post-processing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one-year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow water model. We investigate the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering state of the KE. Optimal observations location correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the KE. During the contracted state of the KE it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast

British economic growth : 1270 - 1870

We provide annual estimates of GDP for England between 1270 and 1700 and for Great Britain between 1700 and 1870, constructed from the output side. The GDP data are combined with population estimates to calculate GDP per capita. We find English per capita income growth of 0.20 per cent per annum between 1270 and 1700, although growth was episodic, with the strongest growth during the Black Death crisis of the fourteenth century and in the second half of the seventeenth century. For the period 1700-1870, we find British per capita income growth of 0.48 per cent, broadly in line with the widely accepted Crafts/Harley estimates. This modest trend growth in per capita income since 1270 suggests that, working back from the present, living standards in the late medieval period were well above “bare bones subsistence”. This can be reconciled with modest levels of kilocalorie consumption per head because of the very large share of pastoral production in agriculture

Does individual variation in metabolic phenotype predict fish behaviour and performance?

There is increasing interest in documenting and explaining the existence of marked intraspecific variation in metabolic rate in animals, with fishes providing some of the best-studied examples. After accounting for variation due to other factors, there can typically be a two to three-fold variation among individual fishes for both standard and maximum metabolic rate (SMR and MMR). This variation is reasonably consistent over time (provided that conditions remain stable), and its underlying causes may be influenced by both genes and developmental conditions. In this paper, current knowledge of the extent and causes of individual variation in SMR, MMR and aerobic scope (AS), collectively its metabolic phenotype, is reviewed and potential links among metabolism, behaviour and performance are described. Intraspecific variation in metabolism has been found to be related to other traits: fishes with a relatively high SMR tend to be more dominant and grow faster in high food environments, but may lose their advantage and are more prone to risk-taking when conditions deteriorate. In contrast to the wide body of research examining links between SMR and behavioural traits, very little work has been directed towards understanding the ecological consequences of individual variation in MMR and AS. Although AS can differ among populations of the same species in response to performance demands, virtually nothing is known about the effects of AS on individual behaviours such as those associated with foraging or predator avoidance. Further, while factors such as food availability, temperature, hypoxia and the fish's social environment are known to alter resting and MMRs in fishes, there is a paucity of studies examining how these effects vary among individuals, and how this variation relates to behaviour. Given the observed links between metabolism and measures of performance, understanding the metabolic responses of individuals to changing environments will be a key area for future research because the environment will have a strong influence on which animals survive predation, become dominant and ultimately have the highest reproductive success. Although current evidence suggests that variation in SMR may be maintained within populations via context-dependent fitness benefits, it is suggested that a more integrative approach is now required to fully understand how the environment can modulate individual performance via effects on metabolic phenotypes encompassing SMR, MMR and AS

Towards a new crown indicator: Some theoretical considerations

The crown indicator is a well-known bibliometric indicator of research performance developed by our institute. The indicator aims to normalize citation counts for differences among fields. We critically examine the theoretical basis of the normalization mechanism applied in the crown indicator. We also make a comparison with an alternative normalization mechanism. The alternative mechanism turns out to have more satisfactory properties than the mechanism applied in the crown indicator. In particular, the alternative mechanism has a so-called consistency property. The mechanism applied in the crown indicator lacks this important property. As a consequence of our findings, we are currently moving towards a new crown indicator, which relies on the alternative normalization mechanism

Rivals for the crown: Reply to Opthof and Leydesdorff

We reply to the criticism of Opthof and Leydesdorff [arXiv:1002.2769] on the way in which our institute applies journal and field normalizations to citation counts. We point out why we believe most of the criticism is unjustified, but we also indicate where we think Opthof and Leydesdorff raise a valid point